Can Carmelo Anthony help the Portland Trail Blazers shake off a slow start to the 2019-20 season?
Having fallen to 13th in the Western Conference at 4-8 after reaching the conference finals last season, the Blazers are in need of help -- particularly at power forward, where on Wednesday rookie Nassir Little became the third player to start in the nine games since Zach Collins was lost to shoulder surgery, which is expected to sideline him the bulk of the regular season.
To help fill that void, Portland turned to a famous name in Anthony, whose most recent NBA action came almost exactly a year ago before the Houston Rockets exiled him in anticipation of an eventual trade. Melo has publicly longed for the chance to extend his career and go out on his terms. Will he prove a better fit with the Blazers than in previous stops in Houston and Oklahoma City?
There are cases both for and against Anthony's fit in Portland. Let's run them down.
How Melo can help the Blazers
Losing Collins exposed Portland's weak depth chart behind him at power forward. Anthony Tolliver got the first crack at replacing Collins, but the veteran stretch 4 hasn't been able to find the target this season. Tolliver is just 8-of-33 (24.2%) from 3-point range and has made but two 2-pointers in 193 minutes of action.
Next up was Mario Hezonja, the former No. 5 overall pick hoping to get his career on track with the Blazers. While he has provided some floor spacing, Hezonja is making just 32% of his 2-point attempts and can be physically overmatched against top power forwards at a listed 6-foot-8, 201 pounds. On Wednesday night, Hezonja was overwhelmed by the challenge of defending Pascal Siakam in the post.
Out of desperation, Portland coach Terry Stotts turned Wednesday to Little, a 19-year-old rookie project who didn't start once during his lone season at North Carolina. Little provided energy and was a better physical match for Siakam, but he shot 3-of-10 from the field and 1-of-5 on 3s.
Equally notable during Wednesday's game was how the visiting Toronto Raptors defended the Blazers' backcourt duo of All-Star Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Toronto used Fred VanVleet and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson to face-guard Lillard and deny him the ball, putting the other player on McCollum when both were on the court. The result was nine points on 2-of-12 shooting for Lillard, who saw his streak of double-figure scoring snapped at 230 games.
In part because of Portland's power forwards, the other Blazers weren't able to generate enough offense to take advantage of the attention Toronto paid to Lillard and McCollum. If he's comfortable serving primarily as a spot-up option when playing with Portland's starters, Anthony should get high-percentage shot attempts.
Last season's starter at power forward, Al-Farouq Aminu, had a quantified shot quality (qSQ) of 54.9%, according to Second Spectrum tracking. That means an average player would have been expected to post an effective field goal percentage (eFG%, which treats 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals) of 54.9 on those shots based on their location, type and the distance to nearby defenders. By contrast, Melo's 48.0% qSQ in Houston was his best in the six seasons tracked by Second Spectrum.
Whether Anthony takes advantage will depend in large part on whether he can recapture the accuracy he showed on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers with the New York Knicks. From 2013-14 through 2016-17, Melo shot 43.2% on those opportunities, per Second Spectrum data. That dropped to 37.9% (about league average) during his lone season in Oklahoma City, and Anthony made just 27.5% of his catch-and-shoot 3s in the 10 games he played in Houston.
Why Melo might not work
Despite the lack of production at power forward, and despite a rough start for McCollum (shooting career-low marks on both 2s and 3s, which is unlikely to continue), offense hasn't really been the issue for Portland. In large part because of Lillard's heroics, the Blazers rank 16th in offensive rating over the nine games since Collins went down but 19th in defensive rating. They've particularly struggled to get stops late in games, allowing a league-high 122.8 points per 100 possessions in fourth quarters, according to NBA Advanced Stats data. Anthony doesn't figure to help there.
Via Cleaning the Glass, Anthony's teams have allowed more points per possession with him on the court in every season except one. Though Melo might not be physically overmatched in the post like the smaller Hezonja, teams are likely to target him in isolations against quicker power forwards and as part of pick-and-rolls. With Aminu at power forward, Stotts frequently switched pick-and-rolls. That won't be a strong option with Anthony.
It's also fair to wonder whether Melo can adapt his offensive game to the Blazers. With Lillard, McCollum and promising reserve Anfernee Simons, they don't need Anthony to come in as a primary scorer. Portland's power forwards have generally sported low usage rates -- Little, at 15.4% of the team's plays in his limited action, is tops among the four players who have seen regular minutes there this season -- and done most of their work out of setting ball screens and spotting up rather than in isolation. Is Melo ready to be a secondary option? If not, he could disrupt the Blazers' offense rather than revitalize it.
Verdict: Melo worth the risk
Frankly, the role Portland wants Anthony to play sounds a lot like the one the Rockets envisioned for him last season, albeit perhaps with less need to switch defensively. Given Melo is a year older (35) and must shake off the rust of a full 12 months away from NBA action without the benefit of a training camp, it's not clear this will work any better.
At the same time, there are important differences between the two teams coming off conference finals losses to the Golden State Warriors. When Houston signed Anthony during the summer, the team still reasonably expected to compete for a championship -- and would eventually reach the second round before losing again to the Warriors. By contrast, the Blazers' playoff expectations are already in jeopardy because of Collins' injury and their slow start. There wasn't an obvious solution for Portland. With Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and Pau Gasol all sidelined by injuries, trading center Hassan Whiteside for a replacement at power forward wasn't a realistic option.
The only cost for the Blazers here is financial, as adding a 15th player will only increase what is already the NBA's highest luxury-tax bill. Much like the Los Angeles Lakers with another out-of-favor ex-All-Star, Dwight Howard, Portland protected itself by agreeing to a non-guaranteed deal with Anthony. Howard's example shows how the looming threat of NBA mortality can help a proud player make necessary changes to his game.
The odds that Melo will be the solution to the Blazers' problems might be long. At the same time, they're probably still better than Portland's chances of righting the ship without him.