Editor's note: This story has been updated after David Fizdale's firing on Dec. 6.
Is there reason for optimism for the New York Knicks after a rough start that led to another coaching change?
According to a report on Friday from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, the Knicks fired their head coach, David Fizdale, after the team's eighth straight loss. The team has also dismissed assistant Keith Smart.
Knicks president Steve Mills started to lay the groundwork for replacing Fizdale before an unusual postgame news conference last month with general manager Scott Perry in which Mills said, "The team is not performing to the level that we anticipated or we expected to perform at."
To the outside world, those expectations were overly hopeful after a summer in which New York used its treasure trove of cap space to sign lower-tier free agents to contracts with limited guarantees beyond this season.
What can the Knicks reasonably hope to achieve going forward? Let's take a look.
MORE: Fizdale the latest in long line of Knicks coaching flops
Front office's expectations unrealistic
To be clear, the New York front office is wrong to scapegoat Fizdale for the team's start. Realistic projections still had the Knicks among the NBA's worst teams after the summer shopping spree to add veterans to a roster that finished 17-65 last season.
At Caesars Sportsbook, New York's preseason over/under total was for 27.5 wins, tied for the third fewest in the league. Our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus were slightly less optimistic at an average of 26.2 wins, while FiveThirtyEight's projections were even more bearish at a league-worst 20 wins on average.
Yes, none of those projections would have necessarily suggested the Knicks would be this bad, with the league's worst net rating amid a series of blowouts. But they also couldn't foresee absences at point guard that left New York with only Frank Ntilikina at the position at times. With the Knicks missing Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr. off and on, they've been outscored by 21.5 points per 100 possessions in the 370 minutes Ntilikina has been on the bench, according to NBA Advanced Stats data. That's hard to blame on Fizdale.
Young Knicks making progress
In the wake of the postgame news conference, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight wryly observed that New York's season is actually going ideally from one perspective. Because their veteran additions haven't played well thus far, the Knicks are in line for another high draft pick while still seeing their young talent develop, which is ideal for a rebuilding team.
That starts with 2018 draft picks Kevin Knox II and Mitchell Robinson, New York's top two players in my wins above replacement player (WARP) model.
Knox was one of the league's least efficient regulars as a rookie, making just 39% of his 2-point attempts and 34% of his 3s. Knox hasn't really improved his accuracy inside the arc, but he is shooting 3s more frequently and hitting them at a better clip. Even as Knox's 3-point shooting inevitably regresses, his superior shot diet and more frequent assists, steals and blocks should last.
Robinson was impressive in a reserve role as a rookie second-round pick, and he has graduated to a starting spot in year two. Though Robinson's minutes still have been limited because of a combination of injuries and a lack of spacing in the starting five, his usage rate has increased from just 12.1% of the Knicks' plays as a rookie to 14.6% so far this season. At the same time, Robinson's shooting percentage has remained stable. Under contract for the minimum through 2021-22, Robinson is a huge part of New York's future.
After a strong start, RJ Barrett, this year's No. 3 overall pick, has faded some. Over his past five games, Barrett is making just 34% of his attempts and 21% of his 3s, causing Barrett's true shooting percentage to slip to .457. It's surely not a coincidence that it has come when Barrett has been forced to frequently serve as a lead playmaker. Barrett's progress will be easier to gauge when he has more offensive help.
The results also have been mixed for Ntilikina, who was given an opportunity to start after opening the season out of Fizdale's rotation. Ntilikina has continued developing into a disruptive defender at the point of attack but still doesn't bring much offensively. If Ntilikina can maintain 37% 3-point shooting -- on a paltry 52 attempts -- he could work off the ball, but currently, he looks better suited as a change-of-pace reserve than a key player.
Unfortunately, this list doesn't include Smith, who struggled before and after leaving the team following the sudden death of a close family member. Smith's potential was a big reason I liked the Kristaps Porzingis trade for New York, an opinion that looks foolish now, two years before the Knicks see either of the two first-round picks they got in the deal. After the trade, Smith averaged 14.7 points and 5.4 assists, strong production at age 21. But Smith's 3-point (30%) and free throw (57%) percentages dropped with New York, and so far this season, he has appeared reluctant to shoot from the perimeter. Getting Smith's development back on track when he is ready to return to the court should be a priority for the Knicks.
Front office must admit the obvious
The danger for New York, particularly following a coaching change, is trying to rely on veterans to squeeze every win possible from a lost season at the expense of seeing what the Knicks' young players can contribute and adding future draft picks. Instead, New York would be wise to keep Ntilikina and Smith in the rotation so long as it isn't hampering the latter's confidence.
The Knicks' front office also should pursue trades for the team's veterans approaching the deadline. Marcus Morris Sr., averaging a team-high 18.3 points per game, should be an especially attractive option for contending teams. Veteran shooting guard Wayne Ellington, on the fringes of the rotation thus far, also could have some value to a contender after starting in the playoffs for the Detroit Pistons last season. I'd even pursue a deal for Bobby Portis, whose contract includes a team option for 2020-21. If teams are willing to give up draft picks, New York could make up for not using its cap space over the summer -- which would have been useful to acquire capable veterans Maurice Harkless or Andre Iguodala, for instance -- in salary-related trades that netted first-round picks for the teams taking them back.
Before, Knicks management could use Fizdale as the explanation for the team's poor record. A coaching change removes that safety net and forces New York's front office to concede this most likely is not a competitive team.
MORE: Fizdale the latest in long line of Knicks coaching flops