Excitement in the Valley of the Sun for Phoenix's impressive 124-95 win over the Sacramento Kings in Wednesday's season opener proved short-lived. A day later, the NBA announced that Deandre Ayton -- the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NBA draft -- will be suspended 25 games for a violation of the NBA's anti-drug policy after testing positive for a banned diuretic.
While ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the National Basketball Players Association is preparing an arbitration case to reduce or rescind the suspension, the Suns for now have to proceed as if they'll be without their star young center through mid-December. (Ayton would be eligible to return Dec. 17 if he misses the full 25 games.) Can Phoenix maintain the good vibes from Wednesday's win without Ayton?
Ayton improved in opener
The timing of Ayton's suspension is all the more disappointing because it comes on the heels of one of his most complete performances as a pro. During his rookie season, Ayton averaged a double-double (16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds per game) on 58.5% shooting, impressive production for a first-year player. He joined four other No. 1 picks (Elton Brand, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard and Karl-Anthony Towns) and No. 2 pick Emeka Okafor as just the sixth rookie to average a double-double in the 2000s. Yet in part because of the way the faster pace helped him accumulate box-score stats, Ayton's impact didn't match up to those averages. He rated slightly worse than league average in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) at minus-0.4 points per 100 possessions.
In fairness to Ayton, the Suns weren't built to feature his skills as a roll man in the pick-and-roll game. That changed this offseason, when Phoenix used cap space to sign point guard Ricky Rubio to a three-year, $51 million deal. The Suns also added a pair of stretch 4s in starter Dario Saric and backup Frank Kaminsky to better space the floor for Ayton. The results were evident Wednesday, when Ayton scored 18 points on 9-of-14 shooting.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, nine of those 14 shots (64%) came within 3 feet of the basket. By contrast, less than half of Ayton's attempts were within 3 feet as a rookie (48%). The average distance of Ayton's attempts was 4.5 feet, down by nearly a third from his 2018-19 average (6.7 feet).
Perhaps more impressive was the development Ayton showed at the defensive end, his weakness as a rookie and a concern dating back to his days as a top prospect. Ayton blocked less than a shot per game in 2018-19, but he had a career-high four blocks on Wednesday. Phoenix's plus-25 plus-minus with Ayton on the court was also the best mark of his brief NBA career.
Assuming the suspension holds, we won't find out for weeks whether Ayton can maintain the improvement he showed to start the 2019-20 campaign.
How can the Suns replace Ayton?
Phoenix's offseason upgrades also involved remaking the center rotation behind Ayton. Veteran Aron Baynes came from the Boston Celtics in a draft-night deal that netted the Suns first-round pick Ty Jerome. Baynes, who started 67 times in 2017-18 for Boston and five of the Celtics' nine playoff games last season, played just 10 minutes in the opener but is the logical choice to replace Ayton in the starting five because of his experience.
While Ayton did well blocking shots on Wednesday, Baynes will be a defensive upgrade. His plus-2.6 defensive RPM ranked 15th among centers in 2018-19, and Baynes was fifth among all players in 2017-18 with a plus-3.7 defensive RPM. Though Baynes doesn't block shots particularly well, his physical presence in the paint is a deterrent and he's an excellent defensive rebounder.
Swapping Ayton for Baynes will mean a huge change in offensive focus. Baynes finished just 15.2% of Boston's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover last season, as compared to a 21.2% usage rate for Ayton. That means more pressure on wings Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre Jr. to create their own offense, as well as Rubio to create for others.
Given Baynes has never averaged more than 18.3 minutes per game in a season, new Suns head coach Monty Williams will have to add to his center rotation. He's got a few different options. One is sliding Kaminsky from power forward to center, something that will be easier when lottery pick Cameron Johnson returns from calf soreness to give Phoenix another forward option. According to my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, Kaminsky played about 80% of his minutes last season in Charlotte at center.
Alternatively, Williams could promote newcomer Cheick Diallo, who played only the final two minutes Wednesday with the Suns up 30 points. Like a lesser version of the rookie Ayton, Diallo has put up solid box-score numbers in limited playing time. He averaged 15.6 points and 13.2 rebounds per 36 minutes during three seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans on 58.5% shooting. However, he never played more than 900 minutes in any of those years because of his unreliable defense.
Lastly, we'll almost certainly see more small ball from Phoenix during Ayton's suspension. Saric played just 23 minutes at center all of 2018-19, per my analysis. He briefly appeared there during the second quarter Wednesday night as part of a five-out lineup that made room for sixth man Mikal Bridges with the rest of the team's starters save Ayton. Now, that lineup includes the Suns' five best individual players.
Taking Ayton out for 25 games and redistributing his minutes primarily to Baynes, Diallo and Kaminsky causes Phoenix's impressive RPM projection to drop by only about a win. That feels too conservative. The Suns have some useful pieces at center, but nobody who can replace what Ayton did at both ends on Wednesday.