What does Zion Williamson's extended absence to start his rookie season mean for the New Orleans Pelicans?
On Monday, the Pelicans announced that the No. 1 overall pick of this year's draft underwent arthroscopic surgery on a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee, confirming last Friday's report from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that Williamson will be sidelined for a "period of weeks." The injury is disappointing for everyone involved, including fans eager to see whether Zion could keep up his dominant preseason play once the games started to count.
Losing Zion threatens the Pelicans' hopes of reaching the playoffs this season. How can they replace Williamson in the short term? And how concerned should we be about Zion going forward? Let's break it down.
Ingram the best option at PF?
If New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry were to go straight down his depth chart at power forward, rookie stretch-4 Nicolo Melli and second-year forward Kenrich Williams (who started 29 games last season but just two at power forward) would be the next men up.
Although Melli and Williams are satisfactory options, the more intriguing choice is the one Gentry employed in Friday's preseason finale at New York: moving Brandon Ingram to power forward to get the best five players on the court. With Williamson healthy, the Pelicans had something of a logjam on the perimeter, choosing among four starting-caliber players (Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday and JJ Redick) for three spots.
Redick had been the odd man out, coming off the bench in the three games he played before starting Friday. Not only does moving Ingram to power forward solve that problem, but also I like the idea of doing so to create more favorable matchups for him against slower defenders.
Because the L.A. Lakers' roster was frontcourt-heavy last season, Ingram played just 327 minutes at power forward, according to my analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats. In that span, the Lakers outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions and posted a robust 108.6 offensive rating. By comparison, they had a 105.0 offensive rating and a minus-3.2 net rating per 100 possessions when Ingram played any other position.
Without Williamson, the Pelicans are best off doubling down on shooting and quickness to replace the strengths Zion brings to the table. Frankly, they don't have much choice. Williams is an undersized 4 in his own right, and though Melli is power-forward-sized at 6-foot-9, he plays primarily on the perimeter. More than half the Italian rookie's shot attempts in the preseason were 3-pointers.
It's possible that lineups with those two players at power forward could have the effect of forcing a slower defender on Ingram, giving him better isolation opportunities. But opponents will have little choice but to guard Ingram conventionally if he plays with the team's top three other perimeter players, all of whom are too dangerous either as shooters or off the dribble (or both, in Holiday's case) to be defended by 4s on the perimeter.
Can the Pelicans still compete for the playoffs?
Having added veterans Redick and Derrick Favors to a deep rotation this summer, New Orleans made it clear that there's no intention of merely rebuilding around Williamson. The Pelicans hoped to be competitive right away, and with Zion looking like a destructive force in the preseason, a run at a playoff spot looked realistic. His injury dampens those hopes.
Already, our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus were relatively bearish on the Pelicans' playoff hopes, mostly because the West projects to be so deep. New Orleans was projected for 38.2 wins on average, and that ranked 12th in the conference. Based on the assumption that Williamson will miss 20 games -- about six weeks -- redistributing those minutes primarily to Melli and Williams (Ingram is already playing starter's minutes) dropped the Pelicans' final projection to 37.5 on average, putting them behind the Phoenix Suns and 13th among West teams.
If New Orleans can stay near .500 against a reasonably challenging schedule early in the season, it's possible that a healthy Zion can lift this team into a playoff spot once he returns. But another reason for skepticism is that Williamson probably will miss additional games for load management to avoid overtaxing his knee the rest of the regular season. Factoring that in, along with the depth of the West, a Pelicans playoff run looks like a long shot.
Impact on Zion
There has always been concern about Zion's ability to stay healthy, given his unique combination of size and strength, and this injury does nothing to alleviate those fears. Meniscus injuries are uniquely challenging to evaluate long-term because of the many possible paths players can take. Some players see their knee cartilage degenerate after early meniscus injuries. Others play for years after surgery without significant issues. Only time will tell how Williamson's knee responds and how much his size factors into that.
It is encouraging that past top prospects who have missed time to start their careers haven't necessarily suffered because of their late debuts. In the past decade, three top-three picks have missed their entire first seasons due to injury. Two of them (No. 1 picks Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons) went on to win the Rookie of the Year Award the following campaign, with No. 3 pick Joel Embiid finishing second when he took the court two years after being drafted. The time Williamson will miss doesn't figure to put him behind in terms of development, particularly since he has already had nearly an entire training camp and preseason.
As for Zion's chances at Rookie of the Year, an extended absence shouldn't rule him out. As noted, Embiid was second in the voting behind Malcolm Brogdon in a season in which he played 31 games. Brandon Roy won the award in 2006-07 after playing 57. Granted, both of those players did so among historically weak rookie crops, and other rookies could be more productive this season. Still, given how good Zion looked in the preseason, write off his Rookie of the Year chances at your peril.