NBA mock draft: Top prospects for 2021

This weekend, 84 of the top American prospects in high school basketball congregated in Colorado Springs, Colorado, for the annual USA Basketball junior national team minicamp, giving us an excellent opportunity to get a jump-start on analyzing what appears to be a deep and talented 2021 draft class.

For the first time, NBA teams were allowed to send one representative to scout the final two days of this event. Only 24 of the 30 teams elected to attend, with some sending their top front-office decision-maker for the coveted slot, while others gave the opportunity to younger scouts seeking experience.

Here's who we consider to be the top prospects in attendance, along with their initial rankings in our first 2021 mock draft.

Note: We used the same projected standing from our latest 2020 mock draft in this 2021 edition. Although the 2021 draft is too far away to reasonably predict the team order, this gives a sense of picks owed and owned.

Evan Mobley | 7-0 | C | Age: 18.3

Mock rank: No. 2

A legitimate contender for the No. 1 pick, Mobley was far and away the most consistently dominant defensive presence, and he has as high a floor as any player in his class. With a steadily improving frame, a 7-4 wingspan and tremendous agility for his size, the USC commit is exactly what teams want in a modern big on the defensive end. Possessing tools similar to Chris Bosh's at the same age, he can step out and switch onto the perimeter gracefully while putting a lid on the rim in the paint thanks to his outstanding instincts, sharp timing and competitiveness. He stays down on shot fakes, holds his own in the post and can glide out of his area for blocks with either hand. Thanks in part to his evolving frame, Mobley is also able to rebound in traffic.

Offensively, Mobley is still a bit of a blank canvas. He's extremely unselfish, with the ability to grab and go in transition or take slower-footed bigs off the bounce from the perimeter. He can make necessary short roll reads and does a nice job handling consistent double-teams. But he still doesn't have a consistent way to score in the half court against a set defense and does most of his damage on drop-offs or putbacks. He shows potential on his perimeter jumper all the way out to the 3, but he has yet to evolve into a consistent threat from beyond the arc.

At the very least, though, he's a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate with the ability to handle and pass in space, even if he doesn't quite have the skill set or approach to function as a No. 1 scoring option right now. -- Schmitz

Jalen Green | 6-5 | SG | Age: 17.6

Mock rank: No. 3

Green appears to be on a significant upward trajectory and had a highly productive weekend that had some scouts mentioning his name as a potential No. 1 overall pick. Green, Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley have cemented themselves as the cream of the crop by a wide margin and will likely continue to battle it out for consideration as the No. 1 prospect in the class.

Always considered a freak athlete in the open floor with elite scoring instincts, Green has become a more consistent shooter while also showing improvement with his decision-making in the half court and playing with more consistent energy defensively. He still has room to improve his frame, ballhandling skills, playmaking and ability to operate off the ball -- he tends to catch and hold excessively and is heavily reliant on his isolation game -- but his talent level and overall athleticism are so high that scouts will be willing to be patient with him as his game continues to round out. -- Givony

Greg Brown | 6-8 | PF | Age: 18.1

Mock rank: No. 9

Brown looked every bit a potential top-10 pick thanks to his freakish leaping ability, high motor and developing perimeter shooting. The springy 6-8 forward punched home poster dunk after poster dunk, blowing scouts away with his ability to rise up in traffic while also using his physical gifts to snatch rebounds and fly around defensively.

The type of NBA player Brown can become rests largely on his perimeter shooting, which has improved by leaps and bounds but remains a mixed bag. He gets healthy rotation on the ball, shoots it on the hop and even tossed in a few step-back jumpers, but his release point is far from textbook and he has a tendency to shoot on the way down. Even with notable improvements, Brown remains more athlete than shot creator or playmaker at this stage. He is better suited at the 4, where he can play off of others. With that said, he's built more like a big wing, with a 193-pound frame and good-not-great length (6-10 wingspan).

Even with his light frame, Brown still impacts the game defensively thanks to his energy and athletic gifts, as he looked comfortable switching on the perimeter, staying with guards before erasing shots at the rim. He rotates for blocks and is an active rebounder. Overall, NBA scouts consider him a high-floor prospect with clear lottery potential. -- Schmitz

Caleb Love | 6-3 | PG | Age: 18.0

Mock rank: No. 11

Always blessed with outstanding physical tools in terms of size, frame, length and athleticism, Love has started to round out his skill level and basketball IQ. He looked far more comfortable running a team and making teammates better than in previous settings. He's an unselfish player who is comfortable playing at different speeds. He sees both sides of the floor, and he's a capable shooter, giving him a terrific framework to build off projecting to the NBA. After being the best player on the floor on the opening night of scrimmages, Love came down to earth a bit as the camp moved on and began to show some of his flaws, primarily in terms of his ability to finish through contact in the paint, use his off hand and make high-level reads out of pick-and-rolls with bigger defenders on him.

Ranked in the 20s by the various recruiting services, Love looked like a top-10 player in stretches, but he still needs to continue to add more consistency to his game. He'll likely benefit from the green light he'll enjoy under Roy Williams at North Carolina, even if he's a far different player than the point guards preceding him in Coby White and Cole Anthony. -- Givony

Keon Johnson | 6-5 | SG | Age: 17.5

Mock rank: No. 13

Johnson had the biggest breakout performance in Colorado Springs, earmarking himself as a potential lottery prospect despite being ranked in the Nos. 20-35 range by recruiting services.

Growing up on the baseball field as a shortstop, Johnson comes from an unconventional background, not playing on any of the major sneaker company AAU circuits until the spring prior to his senior year. Despite his relative lack of experience, he looked extremely comfortable playing against the best prospects, appearing nearly unstoppable in the open court, making a major impact defensively and showing glimpses of potential as a half-court creator and passer.

Johnson had a strong case to be considered the best athlete here, as his ability to accelerate from a standstill and elevate off the floor in the blink of an eye for exhilarating finishes resulted in a number of highlight dunks and blocks. The aggressiveness and competitiveness he displays on both ends of the floor allows him to utilize this freakish explosiveness consistently.

Johnson's ability to live up to the lofty placement in this initial mock draft will depend on his development as a perimeter shooter. In eight games in the Adidas Gauntlet this spring and summer, Johnson shot just 10-for-32 (24%) from 3 and 32-for-55 (58%) from the free throw line. His shooting mechanics aren't conventional, with a one-handed release that gets good rotation but tends to fall apart when he's asked to shoot off the dribble. -- Givony

D.J. Steward | 6-2 | PG | Age: 18.0

Mock rank: No. 16

The Duke commit was steady all weekend long, showing off his shifty nature, slick handle, sharp feel for the game and shooting touch. Despite a 6-6 wingspan, Steward doesn't blow you away physically, with a lean 160-pound frame and average size. He's not freakishly explosive either, but he has an excellent pace to his game, effortlessly shifting gears to keep defenders on their heels to set up scoring opportunities. The 18-year-old Steward, who exploded on the EYBL Circuit playing for Mean Streets, has very few holes in his game at this stage.

Seen as more of a scoring guard on the AAU circuit, Steward ran the show impressively here, showing patience in pick-and-roll while delivering pinpoint pocket passes, hook passes to the pop man and flashy drop-offs when he gets a piece of the paint. Steward is also more than capable of getting going from the perimeter. He sports sound, compact mechanics from 3, can get to midrange spots off the bounce and has the wiggle to break down defenders, even if he's not a great finisher through contact at this stage.

On the other side of the ball, Steward is a competitor with quick hands and feet to go along with sharp instincts. Given his frame, there will certainly be questions about his defensive versatility and upside, but Steward's smarts will allow him to at the very least be an adequate defender in the ACC. -- Schmitz

Josh Christopher | 6-5 | SG | Age: 17.8

Mock rank: No. 22

Christopher was an absolutely dominant force at times, but he also had his fair share of head-scratching moments that have long given talent evaluators reason for pause when trying to project his long-term outlook.

Blessed with a huge frame, the ability to change speeds powerfully and highlight-reel explosiveness, Christopher is a bulldozer in the open floor and nearly impossible for opponents to contain at this level. He relishes contact around the basket, but he can find the open man on the move when he's intent on playing the right way, something that comes and goes. When Christopher is locked in and playing to his full potential with his infectious energy, he's easily one of the most difficult players to slow down in this class, as he can get going in a hurry with his jumper and knock down a barrage of 3-pointers off the dribble, while also playing lockdown defense. You never quite know what version of Christopher you'll get on a night-to-night basis, though, which is why it's important for him to end up in the right situation at his next stop.

Finding a more consistent release point on his 3-ball will be important, as will adding a little more shake and craft to his half-court creation ability, while playing with more consistent energy defensively. -- Givony

Scottie Barnes | 6-8 | PF/C | Age: 18.1

Mock rank: No. 26

A key member of the USA Basketball program since he was 15, Barnes has hit a bit of a snag offensively. While there's still a lot to like about Barnes' hustle, defensive versatility, physical tools and passing feel, his upside is in question if he's unable to turn into at least a respectable standstill shooter given his average explosion and mediocre touch around the rim.

With that said, Barnes still finds ways to put his imprint on the game. He regularly slid with guards in the backcourt, rotated from the weak side for blocks thanks to his 7-1 wingspan and facilitated in space. Despite playing up a year, he was quite productive at the U19 world championships this summer, posting a 21.9 PER over seven games.

He can still be effective at the highest level. But for Barnes to maximize the long-term potential that was once heavily praised, he has to be more of a threat in the half court against a set defense. -- Schmitz

Adam Miller | 6-3 | PG/SG | Age: 17.7

Mock rank: No. 27

Miller helped himself in the scrimmages by shooting the ball with more consistency than he had demonstrated in AAU play, while displaying excellent defense and making a number of impressive open-court plays thanks to his strong frame and plus athleticism. At times criticized for his shot selection, Miller did a good job of buying into a more compact 3-and-D role and making better decisions with the ball.

Miller is not the most advanced ball handler or pick-and-roll player at the moment, struggling to create high-percentage offense in the half court and needing to add more craft and force to his driving ability to take advantage of his strong physical tools. The toughness he displayed locking up opponents with full-court pressure and ability to switch and contain bigger players give him nice potential to grow into when paired with his improving shot-making ability, giving him a ready-made role once he reaches the NBA. If he can continue to evolve as a playmaker, facilitator and creator over the next 20 months, he will see his stock rise even more. -- Givony

Moses Moody | 6-5 | SG/SF | Age: 17.3

Mock rank: No. 29

Although not the most consistent performer here, Moody showed enough flashes to warrant one-and-done consideration as a 3-and-D-style prospect. Moody, who compares favorably to Allen Crabbe physically, catches your eye immediately with his long arms and wide shoulders with a 7-0 wingspan. While not an explosive athlete, he has long strides to the rim and moves with fluidity, which helps him on the defensive end of the floor. He's fairly competitive, with the tools to check multiple positions once his body fills out. Offensively, Moody's NBA ticket is turning himself into a knockdown shooter. He has strong mechanics, and the ball comes out with great rotation. With that said, he's far streakier than you'd like and most recently converted only 26.7% of his triples over 18 Nike EYBL games. Playing a more restricted role at Montverde, he shot the ball at a much better clip, and he has consistently been a reliable free throw shooter in a variety of settings, suggesting that he'll ultimately evolve into a valuable spacer.

Ranked outside the top 25 by recruiting services, Moody is at his best when he keeps the game simple. While he can make a one- or two-dribble pull-up, he's not the most advanced ball handler or accurate passer out of pick-and-roll. He lacks a degree of shiftiness with the ball, especially going left, and he can add more variety to his finishing package.

Not turning 18 until May 31, the uncommitted guard is still rounding out his offensive attack, but there are enough ingredients there for scouts to consider him a legitimate NBA prospect worth tracking. -- Schmitz

Looking ahead to the 2022 NBA draft

USA Basketball does an excellent job of identifying the top prospects in America -- even among players who are two or more years away from being drafted -- and an early evaluation is helpful as a baseline for future comparisons.

Outside of Paolo Banchero and Jonathan Kuminga, who were not in attendance, here are the three players drawing the most attention early on in the 2021 high school class.

Jabari Smith | 6-9 | PF | Age: 16.4

Smith put himself on the radar as a potential No. 1 pick given his upside on both ends. With his frame, long arms, big hands, fluid athleticism, strong feel for the game and versatility, Smith has everything you look for in a young prospect. He is already comfortable facing the basket, and he showed the ability to take a rebound off the defensive glass, initiate the offense and create for others. He also made a number of jumpers with silky touch. Defensively, he has the ability to switch onto guards, move his feet and make plays around the rim, though he could stand to play with a higher degree of intensity. His next steps as a prospect: continuing to carefully add bulk to his frame, developing his interior game and playing with more force around the basket. -- Givony

Chet Holmgren | 7-0 | PF/C | Age: 17.4

Holmgren looked the part of a top pick thanks to his blend of length, agility, skill and competitiveness. He is at an extremely early stage of his physical development, but he fits the modern game with his feathery stroke, ability to put the ball on the floor and defensive versatility. Holmgren shoots an easy ball out to 3 and he's capable of attacking off the bounce, often spinning through the lane and extending with either hand. Even more impressive is how often he seeks out contact at the rim despite his thin frame. On defense, he'll rotate for blocks and cover ground on closeouts. His lack of strength deems him ineffective against bruisers right now, but his skills should shine as his frame fills out. He arguably holds as much upside as any prospect to take the floor here. -- Schmitz

Patrick Baldwin | 6-10 | PF | Age: 16.8

Noted early on as the potential No. 1 prospect in the class, Baldwin doesn't appear to possess the same upside as some of his peers. However, he still has plenty of gifts that will undoubtedly make him an excellent college player and eventual a high NBA draft pick. He towers over opponents, allowing him to see plenty of time as a stretch-5. He's extremely skilled for a player his age, as he's a high-level shooter who rarely misses when left open. Capable of handling in the open floor, passing on the move and making plays defensively, Baldwin is far from a one-dimensional player. He's certainly lacking a degree of high-level agility, quickness and explosiveness, and he doesn't have the most athletic body type. Baldwin did a nice job of playing with energy over the weekend and certainly has a promising future, even if there are questions about how much these skills will translate to the highest levels. -- Schmitz