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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
What will swing the NBA Rookie of the Year race?
New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson is the front-runner to take the prize in 2019-20, according to the ESPN summer forecast panel. Williamson received 72.7% of first-place votes, ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies' Ja Morant (18.2%) and the New York Knicks' RJ Barrett (9.1%).
Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers), Coby White (Chicago Bulls) and Jarrett Culver (Minnesota Timberwolves) also received multiple votes. (Voters were asked for their top three most likely ROY candidates, and we calculated a weighted point total).
To help dive into the ROY race, Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz revisit their pre-draft scouting reports on each player with some updated intel.
Zion Williamson | New Orleans Pelicans | 143 points
Check out all the highlights and reaction to Ja Morant's breakout season at Murray State, where he went from relative unknown to college superstar thanks to his high-flying dunks.
Strengths
A physical specimen unlike any we've seen in recent memory at 6-foot-6, 285 pounds. Will be one of the most explosive athletes in the NBA right away, but is also blessed with incredible fluidity, coordination, body control and power. Does unprecedented things seemingly every game that inspire sheer astonishment.
Extremely skilled and instinctive. Will be very difficult for opposing defenders to slow down due to his ability to create offense with the ball in his hands. Absolutely lethal in transition, but also a very dangerous option in the half court. Excellent ball handler who changes speeds effortlessly and gets incredibly low to the ground with his array of moves. Uses polished footwork and generates amazing force en route to finishing around the rim and drawing fouls. Also a strong passer thanks to his extremely high basketball IQ. Can score in the post, blowing past traditional big men and overpowering smaller players with his huge frame. Much improved shooter as well.
Appears to have ideal NBA superstar personality. Outstanding teammate and competitor. Unselfish. Loves to do the little things needed to help win games. Deflects all of the attention he receives back toward the team. Brings frenetic energy defensively when locked in, showing the ability to guard positions 1-5.
Improvement areas
Difficult to project given his unique game. Some NBA scouts struggle with the fact that they can't find anyone to compare him to, which is part of the evaluation process. Doesn't have a traditional position in yesterday's NBA, but in the modern game will likely become a team's primary creator offensively. Will need a creative coach and the right personnel around him to unlock his full potential. Needs to be surrounded by shooting to be most effective, perhaps similar to Giannis Antetokounmpo in that regard.
Just an average shooter. Made only 24 3-pointers in 33 games at Duke, as well as 64% of his free throw attempts. Mechanics leave a lot to be desired. Ball comes off the side of his hand. Not very fluid in his lower body getting into his jumper.
Can he stay healthy playing the same wrecking-ball style over the course of 82 games? Will likely need to learn to dial back the intensity at times. Had some minor knee issues in high school and has a body type that can get thick quickly if he's not careful. Will be the second-heaviest player in the NBA right off the bat, despite his height.
Projected role: Big playmaker
-- Givony
Ja Morant | Memphis Grizzlies | 88 points
ESPN NBA draft analyst Mike Schmitz explains how RJ Barrett's circumstances might have held him back at Duke.
Strengths
Dynamic athlete who excels in the open court. Transition speed demon who can shift gears on a dime and put pressure on the rim. Explosive two-foot leaper with the ability to put defenders on a poster with ease. Shifty nature allows him to get into the teeth of the defense with or without a ball screen, using electric change-of-pace moves to get to his patented left hand. Although thin, has positional size and doesn't shy away from contact.
Excellent passing instincts with a slick handle. Unselfish hitting ahead in transition (99 of his 323 assists came in the open court). Soft touch on lobs. Loves to deliver the ball off a live dribble with his left hand. Can hit the roller over the top or shooters in the weakside corner. High basketball IQ. Led the nation in assists.
Greatly improved perimeter shooter. After making only nine pull-up jumpers as a freshman, knocked down 35 as a sophomore, several of which came from beyond NBA range. Has added more ways to get to his pull-up, unlocking his half-court scoring when coupled with his dynamic driving and passing. Shines when the lights are brightest. Praised for his work ethic and intangibles.
Improvement areas
Undisciplined defender who didn't show much fight or consistency. Part of that was due to his offensive load, but he still has bad habits to squash. Stands around off the ball. Gambles for steals. Can he be more than a one-position defender at 170 pounds?
Risk-reward passer who opts for flash over substance at times. Found so much of his success in transition at Murray State. Still learning the nuances of making every pick-and-roll read against a set defense. Led the nation in turnovers. Too casual when the ball isn't in his hands. Needs to stay locked in and remain a threat when off the ball.
How efficient will he be as a scorer early in his career? There are still questions about his pull-up jumper (low-release set shot) as well as his ability to finish through contact given his frame and the fact that he doesn't have a consistent floater at this stage. Left-hand dominant as a driver.
Projected role: Franchise point guard
-- Schmitz
RJ Barrett | New York Knicks | 53 points
Strengths
Has prototypical size, length and frame for an NBA wing at 6-foot-7 with a 6-10 wingspan at 208 pounds. Unique athlete in terms of coordination, fluidity, body control and quickness. Plays at different speeds.
Has evolved over his career into a ballhandling guard who is comfortable as a primary creator and facilitator. At his best in the open court, but is also a very capable option in pick-and-roll and isolation situations. Uses his size and high basketball IQ to see over the top of defenses and deliver pinpoint passes. He's also a solid shooter off the dribble. Incisive driver who uses his strong frame to get into the paint, initiate contact, finish from awkward angles and get to the free throw line at a prolific rate.
Has an alpha-dog mentality and wants to win at all costs. Plays with a laser focus and is not afraid of big moments. Competitor who plays with toughness and physicality.
Improvement areas
Improved shooter, but still made only 31% of his 3s last season and 67% of his free throw attempts. Doesn't have the most natural shooting stroke -- jumper looks rigid and flat at times, leading to bad misses.
Not a very efficient overall scorer. Very left-hand dominant. Aggressiveness gets the better of him at times. Shot selection and decision-making were questionable at times as a freshman, especially in late-game situations. Can't always beat better defenders off the dribble from a standstill. Lack of shooting around him at Duke made it easier for opposing defenses to accentuate his weaknesses.
Shows great potential at times defensively, but isn't consistent enough in this area.
Projected role: Primary creator and go-to scorer
-- Givony
Darius Garland | Cleveland Cavaliers | 5 points
ESPN NBA draft analyst Mike Schmitz analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of former North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White.
Strengths
High-level pull-up shooter with deep range who can get to his shot at will out of pick-and-roll or isolations thanks to his ball-on-a-string handle and polished footwork. Creates space with step-back jumpers in either direction. Live feet with quick-twitch athleticism. Comfortable shooting off the catch as well, sprinting off screens or hopping into 3s out of handoffs. Allows for more lineup versatility with his ability to play off the ball offensively. Clean, simple mechanics with a quick release.
Plays off the threat of his jumper to get into the lane. Shifty ball handler. Good feel for when and how to change speeds and directions. Tough to keep in front in the half court. Not a great finisher yet but shows potential with floaters and creative scoops. Has passing instincts when he breaks down the defense. Has shown he can hit the roll man or find shooters after the defense collapses.
Competitive with strong intangibles. Has the quickness and instincts to develop into a solid one-position defender as his frame fills out.
Improvement areas
Still evolving as a facilitator. A little too trigger-happy from 3 at times -- although he had little help at Vanderbilt, finished his freshman season with 13 assists and 15 turnovers in 139 minutes. Scoring is ahead of his passing right now.
Struggles to finish in traffic against length and contact. Not a physically imposing prospect or a threat to go up and finish above the rim. Has to rely on finesse and creativity, of which he's shown glimpses.
Lacks a degree of defensive upside. Quick hands and feet but might struggle early in his career against more powerful guards. How will he hold up against switches? Coming off an MCL injury that sidelined him for most of his freshman campaign.
Projected role: Franchise point guard
-- Schmitz
Coby White | Chicago Bulls | 4 points
Former Texas Tech guard Jarrett Culver explains to Maria Taylor what he brings to the table ahead of the 2019 NBA draft.
Strengths
Energetic scoring guard who can fill it up in a hurry. Puts relentless pressure on the rim in transition, pushing aggressively after made baskets (30.7% of his offense came in the open court). Fast with positional size and the ability to pull up or get all the way to the rim. Doesn't shy away from contact. Extremely confident. Plays with spirit and a high motor, which shows up for stretches on the defensive end.
Shotmaker with deep range both off the catch and the dribble (3.3 made 3s per 40). Ranked in the 93rd percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Catches on the hop. Quick trigger with simple mechanics. Despite lack of pull-up efficiency, more than capable of creating space with step-backs. Pull-up potential makes him a threat in pick-and-roll. Great at splitting ball screens.
Made strides as a passer over the course of last season. Has some creativity when he chooses to unleash it, especially in space. Praised for his intangibles and approach.
Improvement areas
Wild decision-maker. Frenetic pace works for and against him (19.1 turnover percentage in transition). Knows only one speed. Still learning how to run a team in the half court. Will fire contested step-backs early in the possession. Doesn't always see the simple plays out of pick-and-roll. Has a tendency to overdribble. Struggles with aggressive ball pressure. How much of his stellar production was a product of having the ultimate green light in North Carolina's up-tempo system?
More streaky of a shooter than you'd hope. Low release point makes him easier to contest. Finished in the 27th percentile on pull-ups on 116 attempts. Career 34.9% 3-point shooter on 393 attempts.
Lacks ideal length with a negative wingspan and small hands. Shows glimpses defensively but wasn't a consistent factor on or off the ball as a freshman. Lack of length limits him around the rim as well, particularly because he's more quick than bouncy. Needs to add a floater.
Projected role: Microwave scorer
-- Schmitz
Jarrett Culver | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 points
Strengths
Prototypical size at 6-foot-6 with a solid frame. Strong legs. Solid straight-line athlete who can play above the rim in space or change speeds going to his right. Physical around the rim. Doesn't shy away from contact. Should look more explosive to the rim with NBA spacing.
Shot creator who can generate offense for himself or others from all over the floor. Played a fair amount of point guard for Texas Tech. Can make pick-and-roll pull-ups, get to the rim against drop coverages or make most basic ball-screen passes. Loves to operate out of the mid-post. Can get to turnarounds or short pull-ups, where he's most comfortable.
Two-way potential. Strong defensive fundamentals and tools. Should be able to check positions 1-3 at the NBA level. Will stick his nose in and rebound defensively. Praised for his work ethic.
Improvement areas
Inconsistent shooter who overhauled his mechanics between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Shot well under 30% from 3 the final 25 games after a hot start. Unnatural pause near the top of his release. Shoots on the way down at times. Much more comfortable off the dribble than the catch. Turns down open spots for contested pull-ups. How effective will he be playing off the ball early in his career if he goes into a shooting slump?
Not the shiftiest ball handler. More of a straight-line athlete. Lacks a degree of wiggle. Struggles to get past elite defenders in the half court, largely due to his shaky 3-ball and lack of creativity with his handle. Can he generate enough high-percentage offense against NBA defenders? Shot much better against bad teams.
Offensive confidence and defensive physicality tend to fluctuate more than his reputation suggests. Went into a major slump in Texas Tech's final three NCAA tournament games. Average length and reach for a wing.
Projected role: Secondary creator
-- Schmitz