NBA executives consistently repeated this sentiment during Las Vegas Summer League in July: Unless there is a boom on the trade front, most teams will need to be content with their rosters for the next two seasons.
The reasons: A combined $4 billion spent on more than 150 players in the month of July, a limited number of teams with 2020 cap space and an average at best free-agent class. Also consider that teams such as the New York Knicks, who could have $50 million in cap space, likely will bypass the free-agency game and wait until 2021, when we could see a historic group.
On the surface, a projected $300 million in cap space available in the summer of 2020 would mean that there will be a repeat to the carousel of player movement we just witnessed. However, as we begin to examine next offseason, that's appearing not to be the case.
The free agents
Anthony Davis is the clear headliner of the 2020 class, though his name should be written in pencil here. Despite Davis telling ESPN's Rachel Nichols, "I don't know what's gonna happen -- I have one year here," that lack of firm commitment to the Los Angeles Lakers should be met with skepticism.
The Lakers' front office would not have traded six players, two first-round selections and a pick swap for a one-year rental. Plus, the teams that will have cap space are not considered championship worthy, which is one reason Davis forced a trade away from the New Orleans Pelicans. Draymond Green also came off the board with his recent extension, leaving a less than formidable crop.
Of the more than 190 projected free agents, the strongest players come with asterisks since they carry the restricted tag, including Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, Dario Saric, Domantas Sabonis and Jakob Poeltl. That restricted tag means the incumbent team can match any offer, making player movement less likely.
Remove those 12 players and the remaining group consists of former All-Stars in their mid-30s, core players who likely will opt into their contracts and role players. There is no bona fide franchise player outside of Davis.
Here is a list of 20 of the top unrestricted free agents broken down by their position, age and current salary:
Other: D.J. Augustin, Austin Rivers (player), Evan Turner and Isaiah Thomas
Other: Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton, Jordan Clarkson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (player option), Courtney Lee, Allen Crabbe and Avery Bradley (player option)
Other: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Other: JaMychal Green (player option), Jeff Green, Bobby Portis (team) and Jabari Parker (player option)
Other: Willie Cauley-Stein (player option), Nerlens Noel, Tristan Thompson, Enes Kanter (player option), Hassan Whiteside, Robin Lopez (player option) and Mason Plumlee
The teams
We saw 14 NBA teams have at least $20 million in cap space in 2019. Next summer, that number projects to be around five teams, though that could increase if teams such as the Knicks decide to use cap space rather than retain their own players. Teams over the cap could also continue to pursue sign-and-trades, like the Golden State Warriors did with D'Angelo Russell.
Those five teams with projected room -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Memphis and Toronto -- combined for a 178-232 record in 2018-19, and 58 of those wins came from the champion Toronto Raptors. Aside from LeBron James returning home in 2014, none of these teams has been a consistent free-agent destination.
That's unlikely to change in 2020, with Atlanta, Memphis and Cleveland content on organically building their rosters through the draft rather than overpaying in free agency. However, because 26 teams could have real space the following year, it might make sense for Atlanta or Toronto to take advantage of a less crowded field and look for immediate improvement.
Projected room: $73 million
Who returns: Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, John Collins, Jabari Parker (player option), Bruno Fernando, first-rounder (own) and first-rounder (via Brooklyn)
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($2.9 million)
Once again, Atlanta will enter the offseason with significant cap space. The Hawks will have to determine if there are multiple veterans worth a real financial commitment or if it's better to continue to compile draft picks while taking on bloated contracts.
Because the roster has been built through the draft, Atlanta can once again take a conservative approach with a continued focus on internal development. In the summer of 2021, the core of the roster (Young, Huerter, Hunter and Reddish) will still be on their rookie contracts -- Collins will be a restricted free agent -- and the Hawks will maintain $70 million in space.
Projected room: $25 million
Who returns: Nicolas Batum (player option), Terry Rozier, Cody Zeller, Malik Monk, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges, Devonte' Graham (non-guaranteed), Dwayne Bacon (free-agent hold) and first-rounder (own)
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($2.9 million)
After being stuck in salary-cap purgatory since 2016, Charlotte will now have cap flexibility. With the expiring contracts of Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bismack Biyombo, the Hornets project to have $25 million in room. That room will increase to $85 million in 2021, when only Rozier, Washington and Bridges are under contract.
Despite the flexibility, the Hornets are considered more of a team that is rebuilding and not one in contention to lure All-Star free agents.
Projected room: $35 million
Who returns: Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Ante Zizic, Dylan Windler, Kevin Porter Jr., Cedi Osman (free-agent hold) and first-rounder
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($2.9 million)
After paying a luxury tax penalty four times since the 2014-15 season, Cleveland will have cap flexibility in 2020. This $35 million in room is a result of five expiring veteran contracts: Jordan Clarkson, Tristan Thompson, John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova and Brandon Knight.
Like the Hornets, the Cavs are in a clear rebuild, so how they approach the use of cap space could depend on whether Love is still on the roster. Do they look to accelerate the rebuild, or do they follow what Atlanta has done and use the room to build up their draft assets?
Projected room: $40 million
Who returns: Jonas Valanciunas, Tyus Jones, Kyle Anderson, Ja Morant, Josh Jackson (fourth-year option exercised), Jaren Jackson Jr., Marko Guduric, Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks (free-agent hold), De'Anthony Melton (free-agent hold) and first-rounder (own, if top six)
Other charges: Dakari Johnson ($459,000)
The last time we saw Memphis with cap space, the team went out and overpaid Chandler Parsons. Three years later, Parsons is on the Hawks and the Grizzlies have reshaped their roster around two potential franchise players in Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
With a roster that could return 12 players, the Grizzlies could take the same approach as they did with Andre Iguodala: absorb a large salary into room or an exception with a first-round pick attached. The challenge is that, unlike in recent summers, there is not likely to be a rush of teams looking to create cap space to sign players. There might not be many opportunities to use max room to acquire picks.
Projected room: $60 million
Who returns: Pascal Siakam (free-agent hold), Norman Powell, Patrick McCaw, Stanley Johnson, OG Anunoby, Terence Davis (non-guaranteed), Matt Thomas (non-guaranteed), Dewan Hernandez (non-guaranteed), Cameron Payne (non-guaranteed) and first-rounder (own)
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($1.9 million)
With Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol on expiring contracts, Toronto has the ability to wipe its finances clean and build around Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet.
The question the Raptors will face before that: Are Lowry, Ibaka and Gasol expendable during the regular season? If so, Toronto could go free-agent shopping by trading for players who have contracts that extend past 2019-20 -- similar to what Cleveland did before the trade deadline in February.
The wild cards
To become a team with cap space, it will take some sacrifices. Here is the group of five teams to keep an eye on next summer.
Note: Because the midlevel and biannual exceptions in 2020 are projected to be a combined $13 million, teams such as the Detroit Pistons are not listed. The Pistons project to have $10 million in room but would likely act as a team over the cap when combining both exceptions.
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans has the choice of building through the draft, trades or free-agent signings. Maintaining that flexibility was the blueprint for the Pelicans' moves since the summer began.
For New Orleans to have up to $30 million in room next offseason, it will cost renouncing free agents Brandon Ingram, Derrick Favors and reserve Darius Miller (non-guaranteed contract).
New York Knicks
The Knicks gave themselves an insurance policy with how they structured the contracts of Bobby Portis, Wayne Ellington, Reggie Bullock, Elfrid Payton and Taj Gibson. In the scenario that New York elects to become active next summer, the team can move on from the five players and have more than $40 million in room. However, for the Knicks to maximize cap space, each player would need to be waived by June 28, two days before free agency begins.
Waiting until the summer of 2021 could see New York with close to $80 million in room, good enough for two max players (again).
Removing the free-agent holds of Tyler Johnson and Aron Baynes still leaves the Suns right at the cap line for next summer.
For the Suns to have more than $20 million in room, they'd have to decline the team option on Frank Kaminsky and renounce restricted free agent Dario Saric.
The team with the most expensive salary heading into the season could finagle cap space next summer. Portland could have up to $18 million if free agents Hassan Whiteside, Kent Bazemore and Rodney Hood (player option) are not brought back.
The recent extensions of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum start in 2021-22 and do not impact what Portland has available to spend in 2020.
The list of teams that have outright cap space makes it doubtful that DeMar DeRozan opts out of his $27.7 million contract for 2020.
If the guard does become a free agent, the Spurs could have close to $20 million in room -- a number that could double because of the partially guaranteed contracts of LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles and Chimezie Metu.
The summer of 2021
We are still two years away, but teams are already dubbing 2021 as the next great free-agent class, featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James (player option), Blake Griffin (player option), Paul George (player option), Kawhi Leonard (player option), Bradley Beal, Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Jrue Holiday (player option) and Victor Oladipo.
Combine those free agents mentioned, 26 teams with max space (only Brooklyn, Golden State, Houston and Philadelphia likely will be capped out) and the cap increasing to $125 million (from $109.1 million this season), and there could be significant roster turnover yet again.