In a stunning change of direction, the Oklahoma City Thunder granted All-Star forward Paul George's wish for a trade to the LA Clippers early Saturday morning Central time, dealing George for an unprecedented package of draft picks plus young talent.
Just how big a price did the Clippers pay to pair George with free agent Kawhi Leonard (who picked them over the Los Angeles Lakers and Toronto Raptors shortly before the trade was reported)? And how does this massive haul set up Oklahoma City's future? Let's run through the implications.
Oklahoma City Thunder get: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, unprotected 2022, 2024, 2026 first-round picks, first-round rights swaps in 2023 and 2025, unprotected 2021 and protected 2023 first-round picks via Miami.
LA Clippers get: Paul George
Get more trade grades for every deal here.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A
George's trade request, made to the Thunder organization by his agent, Aaron Mintz, in recent days, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, obviously played an important role in this deal getting done. Still, I think it's fair to wonder whether the Clippers' willingness to deal so many draft picks along with their best young prospect (Gilgeous-Alexander) was more important than George's wishes.
After all, George had two full years remaining on his contract before a player option in 2021-22. That gave George far less leverage to force a trade than players closer to the end of their contracts. Even Anthony Davis' trade request came later in the process, a season and a half before Davis hit free agency.
The Thunder were able to take full advantage of that additional contract length and the Clippers' desperation to find a second star to persuade Leonard to sign. Between unprotected picks in 2022, 2024 and 2026, and swap rights in 2023 and 2025, Oklahoma City now controls the Clippers' draft picks for a five-year span -- longer even than the Boston Celtics were able to get the Brooklyn Nets' picks via the Nets' trade for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Boston got three picks and one swap option over five years.
Wisely, the Thunder pushed those picks as far out into the future as possible. The odds of the Clippers falling out of contention are far higher by the mid-2020s than over the next few seasons while George and Leonard are in their primes. By 2026, the last draft for which picks can currently be traded, George will be 35 and Leonard 34. Both will also have come back up for free agency again, meaning it's no sure thing they're even on the Clippers by that point.
Oklahoma City also mitigated the effect of the Clippers being too good in the short term for their picks to have value by getting a pair of Miami Heat first-rounders accumulated by the Clippers in the past six months. The Heat's unprotected 2021 first-round pick is now on its fourth team in a little more than a year, having passed through the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers before going to the Clippers and now the Thunder. Meanwhile, the Clippers have yet to officially add Miami's lottery-protected first-round pick in 2023, acquired in order to take on Maurice Harkless' salary after the moratorium.
For all the picks involved, giving up Gilgeous-Alexander was surely the most painful part of this deal for the Clippers, who saw him emerge as a starter for a playoff team during his rookie season at age 20. In the short term, Gilgeous-Alexander's value is probably slightly overstated. He ranked 50th among point guards in ESPN's real plus-minus last season and was aided by the presence of veteran Patrick Beverley to help run the Clippers' offense.
Nonetheless, given Gilgeous-Alexander's combination of size (6-foot-6), production and age, his future is bright. Point guards tend to develop later than players at other positions, giving Gilgeous-Alexander years of improvement ahead of him and putting him near his prime as Russell Westbrook figures to move into a different stage of his career.
Additionally, don't discount Oklahoma City getting Danilo Gallinari in this trade -- essentially the equivalent of Kevin Martin's inclusion in the James Harden trade, which helped the Thunder post the best record in franchise history the season after trading away the future MVP. It was Gallinari, not higher-scoring teammate Tobias Harris, who led the Clippers in most advanced value stats prior to Harris' deadline trade to the Sixers. Oklahoma City can look to stay in contention, with Gallinari sliding in for George at small forward while keeping open the option of moving him for additional value before the trade deadline as a quality starter on an expiring contract.
Gallinari can replace much of George's shot creation, having finished 24% of the Clippers' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover while scoring with better efficiency than George did with a usage rate near 30% of Oklahoma City's plays. The difference, besides durability -- Gallinari missed an average of 35 games per season from 2014-15 through 2017-18 before playing in 68 games last year -- is, of course, on defense, where he's average, at best, and George is elite. Oklahoma City's defense has become far less fearsome, which downgrades the Thunder as contenders in the short term.
I'm sure Oklahoma City would have been perfectly happy to continue along with George and Westbrook, hoping for the right move that would have gotten them firmly back into contention in the Western Conference. Still, once George asked out, this deal was too good not to take. It sets up the Thunder for more sustainable success, both financially -- as an ancillary benefit, Oklahoma City saves about $6.6 million in salary, drastically slashing the team's giant luxury-tax bill -- and in terms of quality young talent.
LA Clippers: B+
After two-plus years of careful roster management starting with the Chris Paul trade, it's remarkable to see the Clippers go from having two additional first-round picks coming in the future to minus-three future picks and two swaps in a single deal. Of course, the whole reason to stockpile picks is to get in position to win a championship, and that's exactly what the Clippers have done with this move. (I went into more detail about the Clippers' title chances in my reaction piece.)
Surely the Clippers saw this move not as giving up five draft picks, two swaps, Gilgeous-Alexander and Gallinari for George alone, but instead for the combination of him and Leonard. That notion makes the price far more palatable. After all, presuming Kawhi planned to sign long-term wherever he chose, the Clippers would have had a difficult time using their cap space anywhere near as well as signing Leonard anytime soon. Nobody left on the market this year was worth it, and the 2020 class of free agents is lacking high-end talent. The Clippers might have found themselves waiting to make a trade that would have cost them this much for a single star player.
The timing of Leonard's decision also complicated matters for the Clippers, who couldn't risk haggling over every draft pick and protection with the Thunder lest the whole thing fall apart. Given all those factors, and given how promising the Clippers' short-term future looks, I think this deal is worth the very real risk of giving up so many future first-round picks and swaps.