Have the LA Clippers become the favorites to win the NBA championship?
In a stunning pair of announcements late Friday, the Clippers landed NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard after months of openly wooing him and then paired him via trade with a second superstar in Paul George. Both players are returning home to Southern California.
Having added two All-NBA players to the core of a team that won 48 games a season ago, the Clippers have transformed to become contenders overnight. Just how good is this team? And what's next for the Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers, after each team missed out on him? Let's break down the massive implications of a night that could shape the NBA for years to come.
Projecting the Clippers
Let's pause for a moment to wrap our heads around the Clippers' new lineup. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander heading to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the George trade, Patrick Beverley surely starts at point guard after agreeing to a three-year, $40 million deal earlier this week. Holdover Landry Shamet is the likely starter at shooting guard with George and Leonard at forward. Center remains something of a question mark with Ivica Zubac, who started for the Clippers during the 2019 playoffs but remains unsigned as a restricted free agent.
For a team spending $65 million-plus on two stars, the Clippers boast enviable depth thanks to their creative cap management. They retained the bench duo of reigning Sixth Man Award winner Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, who finished third in the voting. They also will add Maurice Harkless (a starter in 53 of the 60 games he played for the Portland Trail Blazers last season) via trade and Rodney McGruder (who started 45 of his 66 games with the Miami Heat) via a waiver claim at the end of last season. On top of all that, the Clippers still have their $4.8 million room exception to add to the roster.
The Clippers are set up perfectly for Leonard to continue the load management program that saw him play 60 games during the 2018-19 regular season, keeping him fresh for one of the best playoff runs in modern NBA history. Harkless and McGruder give the Clippers a pair of starting-caliber replacements for Leonard, and the addition of George as a co-star means there's someone else to carry the load offensively when Leonard sits.
At this point, the Clippers look most vulnerable at point guard, where Beverley had never played more than 71 games in a season before playing 78 in 2018-19. They have Williams there, of course, but prefer to keep him in a reserve role. He started just once all of last season.
Clippers built well for playoffs
In the modern NBA postseason, there's no more valuable commodity than a wing capable of creating his own offense and able to defend multiple positions. With Kevin Durant sidelined following an Achilles rupture in the NBA Finals, the Clippers now have arguably the two best such players in the league.
Leonard's value is obvious in the wake of the 2019 playoffs, but it's easy to forget now after an early exit from the postseason how good George was last season, when he finished third in the MVP voting. George and Leonard rated identically in the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, with George far more valuable during the regular season because he played 800 more minutes. That came despite a second-half shooting swoon likely tied to George's shoulder injuries, which caused him to undergo surgery on both shoulders this summer. (He's expected to be re-evaluated around the start of training camp.)
With George and Leonard, both of whom have been selected for the All-Defensive First Team, the Clippers can match up with the two best wing or power forward options on any team. And in Beverley, yet another former All-Defensive first-teamer, the Clippers also have a bulldog defender on the ball. As a result, despite lacking in rim protection, the Clippers should be able to put together an elite defense.
At the other end of the court, the Clippers will have shooters at four positions. The lowest career 3-point percentage of the four non-centers in the projected starting lineup I laid out is George at 37.8%. That will give George and Leonard plenty of room to operate one-on-one and provide strong floor spacing for pick-and-rolls involving the Clippers' non-shooting centers.
Add it up and the Clippers are clear favorites out of the Western Conference to reach the NBA Finals. Even if the Lakers boast slightly more high-end star power with Anthony Davis and LeBron James, their supporting talent is nowhere near the level of what the Clippers have to offer. Leonard's departure weakens the top of the Eastern Conference, and at this point I'd take the Clippers over the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, too.
Pivot ahead for Toronto?
The prevailing assumption when the Raptors traded for Leonard with the knowledge he might leave this summer was that the franchise would look to contend for a year with him and then change direction. Winning a championship may have changed those plans. Though Toronto has lost two starters in Danny Green and Leonard, the rest of the team's championship core remains under contract.
By the summer of 2020, however, we could see a different-looking Raptors roster. Veterans Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry will all be free agents then, and Toronto seems likely to pivot to a focus around a young core led by reigning Most Improved Player Pascal Siakam. Siakam will be a restricted free agent next summer if the Raptors don't agree to a contract extension before Oct. 31, but his cap hold would be just $7 million. That means Toronto could have $65 million in room to build around a core of Siakam, forward OG Anunoby and guard Fred VanVleet (who will also be an unrestricted free agent).
Kawhi's departure after a single season with the Raptors means he'll go down as the greatest rental in NBA history, having led Toronto to the team's first championship and earned Finals MVP. Given what the Raptors accomplished, there's no reason to have any regrets about dealing for Leonard despite the disappointment of his departure.
Lakers turn to remaining role players
The wait for Leonard's decision proved costly for the Lakers, who missed out on the top tier of free agents and much of the second tier as well. The one silver lining of Leonard joining the crosstown rival Clippers and not returning to Toronto is it left Green available to the Lakers, who quickly pounced with a reported two-year, $30 million deal that takes up a large share of their approximately $32 million in cap space -- which must be used before the Anthony Davis trade is completed lest part of it disappear.
In the hours following Leonard's decision, the Lakers also came to terms with two returning free agents. Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal, and center JaVale McGee came back on a two-year, $8.2 million deal that could be executed using the team's room midlevel exception if need be. That leaves point guard as the big need for the Lakers. Most likely, they will look to bring back incumbent point guards Rajon Rondo -- perhaps the best unrestricted option left on the market -- and Alex Caruso while leaning heavily on LeBron to serve as a playmaker.
With $11.5 million in cap space left to use assuming McGee re-signs with the room exception, the Lakers might have just enough money available to add another wing, with Justin Holiday the top remaining 3-and-D option.