What's next for the Golden State Warriors if they lock up All-Star Klay Thompson shortly after the start of NBA free agency on Sunday?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that the Warriors plan to offer Thompson a five-year, maximum contract worth a projected $190 million, which should seal his agreement. But Thompson's expected return would be just the start of a busy offseason for Golden State, which entered the summer with only seven players under contract for 2019-20 and must deal with long-term injuries for Thompson and Kevin Durant if they return.
So what will the Warriors' offseason look like? Let's break it down.
1. Figure out Shaun Livingston's contract
Though this might not be the most important task facing the Golden State front office, it takes on extra significance both chronologically and in terms of setting up its other planning. Livingston's $7.7 million salary in the final season of his contract is $2 million guaranteed through June 30, meaning the Warriors have a decision to make on whether to keep him, waive him or use his contract in trade.
The latter option looks especially appealing. Not only would a trade keep the guaranteed portion of Livingston's salary from hitting Golden State's books, it could also help the Warriors replace either Thompson or Kevin Durant -- if Livingston's guarantee is increased.
Because Livingston's contract was signed after the current NBA collective bargaining agreement took effect, only the guaranteed portion of his salary counts as Golden State matches in a trade. That limits the Warriors to taking back $3.6 million at this point. But if Livingston's guarantee were increased, as we saw the Los Angeles Lakers do with Jemerrio Jones to facilitate an expanded, three-team version of the Anthony Davis trade, the Warriors could bring back more. I've suggested future Memphis Grizzlies forward Jae Crowder as an ideal target, with Grizzlies wing CJ Miles and New Orleans Pelicans guard E'Twaun Moore as other reasonable candidates.
2. Pitch Kevin Durant on a new contract
With Thompson's return a near certainty, Durant is the big question mark in free agency for the Warriors. Golden State can offer him a fifth year and a larger raise than other suitors, which would translate into a projected $57 million more guaranteed salary on Durant's next contract. That noted, Durant has shown a willingness to take less money in the past, making less than his max on his past two contracts with the Warriors. And given Durant's strong market even coming off an Achilles tendon rupture, he can be confident he'll be able to make up a large portion of the difference on a subsequent deal.
As a result, Golden State will have to sweat out Durant's decision, however long it takes.
2a. Try to execute a Durant sign-and-trade
Should Durant decide to leave, the Warriors will surely push to make it a sign-and-trade transaction. Though that adjustment would have no effect on Durant's contract or his next team's cap space, it would be enormously beneficial for Golden State. A sign-and-trade deal would give the Warriors the largest trade exception in NBA history -- which they could use to help replace Durant if they haven't already done so using Livingston's contract or to add salary at the trade deadline or even next July for the 2020-21 campaign.
Golden State probably would have to give up some draft compensation to convince Durant's new team to work a sign-and-trade, but doing so would have important long-term ramifications.
2b. Apply for a disabled player exception for Durant
If Durant returns, the Warriors would want to get an injury exception because of his Achilles injury. That would be contingent on an NBA-designated physician ruling that Durant is unlikely to play through June 15, 2020 -- which is possible given reporting that he is expected to miss the entire 2019-20 season. A disabled player exception for Durant would be worth the value of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (projected at $9.2 million) and could be used to sign a player to a one-year contract or to trade for a player in the final season of his contract.
That's almost certainly more money than the Warriors could offer a free agent otherwise, and any of the players I mentioned earlier as trade targets would fit into the disabled player exception.
3. Maximize the taxpayer midlevel exception
Barring unexpected financial austerity this summer, the Warriors will want to use the $5.7 million tax midlevel rather than the non-tax version, which would hard-cap them at a team payroll approximately $6.6 million greater than the luxury-tax line. Last year, the tax midlevel landed Golden State DeMarcus Cousins. The year before, the Warriors signed Nick Young with their tax midlevel.
As crucial as Cousins proved at times in the NBA Finals, that's two years Golden State has gone without successfully adding crucial wing depth using the team's main tool for improvement. The Warriors can't afford a repeat. They need to add a solid role player on the wing.
Whether Golden State targets a shooting guard to fill in for Thompson or a combo forward capable of replacing Durant -- either next season or long term -- might depend on what happens in the trade market.
4. Re-sign Kevon Looney
After the Warriors finished a sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western conference finals, coach Steve Kerr called Looney "one of our foundational pieces." That value, not evident during Looney's first three NBA seasons, was reinforced when he missed time during the NBA Finals due to a cartilage fracture in his chest. Golden State struggled to replace his defensive versatility.
Now, Looney is an unrestricted free agent who will draw interest from other teams. Just 23 years old, Looney might have more improvement ahead. Despite the likely cost in luxury tax, the Warriors will be motivated to re-sign Looney given their need to use tools for improving the roster to add wing depth.
5. Try to re-sign DeMarcus Cousins
Because Golden State has only non-Bird rights (a weak form of Bird rights) on Cousins after last year's one-year contract, the most the Warriors can offer is probably a 20% raise on his 2018-19 salary -- which would come out to $6.4 million. (Golden State could hypothetically offer more if a disabled player exception for Durant were approved, but it's not realistic for Cousins to wait around for that possibility.)
As much as Cousins seemed to enjoy his time in the Bay Area, that might not be enough to compete with teams (perhaps the New York Knicks?) willing to offer a lucrative one-year deal if they strike out on their superstar targets in free agency.
6. Figure out which other role players return
Besides the players we've discussed so far, the Warriors have four other free agents from their 15-man roster, plus both two-way players (Marcus Derrickson and Damion Lee). Of those, Jordan Bell is the most interesting case. He can be a restricted free agent if Golden State tenders a qualifying offer. As a rookie, Bell looked like a candidate for a big offer sheet this summer. He regressed in Year 2, highlighted by a one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team, and he might not be in the Warriors' long-term plans.
Andrew Bogut is headed back to Australia, where he remains under contract with the Sydney Kings. That leaves guard Quinn Cook and forward Jonas Jerebko, both of whom were in the rotation at times during the playoffs. Golden State isn't likely to offer them more than the veteran's minimum, and it might want to refresh the bench with new faces.