How can the Golden State Warriors replace Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson?
In the wake of major injuries to both stars during the NBA Finals, the Warriors can expect both to miss most or all of the 2019-20 season -- if they're actually on the Golden State roster. Thompson is an unrestricted free agent, and Durant can become one if he declines a $31.5 million player option.
The Warriors will have limited ability to replace them, either in the short term or long term. Assuming at least one of the two re-signs, Golden State probably will have only the taxpayer midlevel exception (MLE, projected at $5.7 million) available to offer free agents more than the veteran's minimum.
If one or both players leaves via free agency, the Warriors could try to use draft picks to convince their new team(s) to agree to a sign-and-trade deal that would create an enormous trade exception. Alternatively, if either player re-signs and is ruled by an NBA-designated doctor unlikely to return by next June 15, Golden State would qualify for a disabled player exception that could be used to either sign a free agent to a one-year contract up to the larger non-tax MLE (projected at $9.2 million) or trade for a player in the final season of his contract making up to $9.3 million.
So whom might the Warriors be able to get in free agency or through trade? Let's take a look at some realistic options for Golden State.
Free agents
Reggie Bullock | Los Angeles Lakers | Guard/forward
A career 39% 3-point shooter with sufficient size to play either wing spot, Bullock stands to earn a big raise over the $2.5 million he made last season. That could put him outside the Warriors' price range with the tax MLE, though Bullock didn't exactly surge into free agency. In 19 games with the Lakers after a pre-deadline trade, he shot just 34% from beyond the arc as the team crashed out of the playoff picture. Still, having yet to cash in on a big contract, Bullock isn't likely to offer a discount.
DeMarre Carroll | Brooklyn Nets | Forward
As a veteran with extensive playoff experience, including back-to-back trips to the Eastern Conference finals with Atlanta in 2015 and Toronto in 2016, Carroll could be an ideal fit for Golden State. He's more than capable of starting at small forward and sliding down to play the 4 in smaller lineups when the Warriors move Draymond Green at center.
The key question for Carroll is where his 3-point percentage settles. After making better than 39% of his attempts for the two conference finalists, Carroll has shot a below-average 34% two of the past three seasons, with a 37% mark in between. That's the difference between being another player defenses feel comfortable leaving open beyond the arc and a feared shooter with more gravitational pull on defenses. A decline in steal rate the past two seasons with Brooklyn is also something of a concern.
Wilson Chandler | LA Clippers | Forward
In theory, Chandler also fits the Warriors' desire for a combo forward, but the reality of his production has never quite matched the theory. Only once in Chandler's career has he posted an above-average true shooting percentage, and he most recently posted a positive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) in 2012-13. Chandler hasn't been quite a good enough 3-point shooter (34% career, though 36% and 37% over the past two seasons) to score efficiently as his game has drifted beyond the arc, and a low steal rate limits his defensive value. As a result, I'd look elsewhere.
Wayne Ellington | Detroit Pistons | Guard
Probably the single best shooter Golden State could sign to replace Thompson, Ellington has shot 38% from downtown in his career and maintained that mark while dramatically increasing his attempts in recent years. He has attempted more than 10 3-pointers per 36 minutes the past two seasons, with Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra using Ellington in off-ball screens like how the Warriors utilize Thompson.
Having made $6.3 million each of the past two seasons, Ellington could be right on the edge of Golden State's price range with the tax MLE.
Justin Holiday | Memphis Grizzlies | Guard/forward
Holiday established himself as an NBA player with the 2014-15 Warriors, entering that season with only nine career games to his credit and leaving it as a champion. Over the past four years, Holiday has developed into a starter and one of the league's better 3-and-D wings, though heavier on defense than 3s (he's just a 35% career 3-point shooter). Holiday can defend either wing spot but isn't big enough to slide down to power forward. Still, he'd be a strong fit if Golden State wants to bring back a player familiar with the team's culture.
Danuel House | Houston Rockets | Forward
One of the Warriors' final cuts in training camp last season, House landed with the Rockets and ended up averaging 25 minutes. House resisted Houston's efforts to sign him to a long-term deal while on a two-way contract, meaning he'll be a restricted free agent this summer. Signing House to an offer sheet would be risky for Golden State given the possibility of the Rockets matching and leaving the Warriors scrambling for an alternative. Simply pursuing him, though, could force Houston to spend more -- a key concern for a Rockets team on the verge of the luxury tax.
In basketball terms, House's strength is a positive in switch-heavy schemes like Golden State and Houston employ. But House's 42% 3-point shooting didn't translate when the teams squared off in the playoffs, and he was a DNP-CD the rest of the series after Game 2.
Wesley Matthews | Indiana Pacers | Guard
Waived by the New York Knicks after a midseason trade, Matthews passed on the opportunity to join a contender for a larger role with the Pacers. He stepped in for injured Victor Oladipo at shooting guard, averaging 31.5 minutes. The Warriors could offer Matthews both a chance to contend and a large role, as well as a salary that should be in his market.
A career 38% 3-point shooter, Matthews hasn't been as effective inside the arc or quite at the same level defensively since suffering his own Achilles tendon rupture in 2015. But if Golden State can find a combo forward elsewhere, Matthews would be a good fit for the void at shooting guard.
Trade options
CJ Miles | Memphis Grizzlies | Guard/forward
Acquired as a replacement for Carroll by Toronto, Miles couldn't replicate his 41% 3-point shooting from 2016-17 in Indiana and fell to the fringes of the rotation before being dealt as part of the package for Marc Gasol.
Miles was more effective in 13 games for the Grizzlies before a stress reaction in his left foot ended his season. Miles picked up an $8.7 million player option and doesn't seem to fit on a rebuilding Memphis team that is pushing the luxury tax and could stand to shed his salary.
E'Twaun Moore | New Orleans Pelicans | Guard
Moore is two years removed from his best season, starting 80 games during the regular season and all nine in the playoffs as the Pelicans swept Portland in the opening round before losing to Golden State. He shot 43% beyond the arc that season and actually improved slightly last season despite battling a lingering quadriceps injury.
At 6-foot-4, Moore is a little smaller than ideal for the Warriors, but with New Orleans retooling around this year's No. 1 overall draft pick, he might be the best player they could realistically hope to get without giving up a draft pick. Like Miles, Moore would fit into the disabled player exception if Golden State gets one.
Dion Waiters | Miami Heat | Guard
The Heat have reportedly been searching to offload Waiters' $12.1 million salary to create more flexibility with the luxury tax, so Golden State might actually be able to get a draft pick in exchange for taking him into an exception created by a sign-and-trade. Like House, Waiters' lower-body strength makes him effective defending bigger opponents, and he played a key role against the Warriors in the 2016 Western Conference finals while with Oklahoma City -- his only career playoff experience because he missed the 2018 postseason because of injury.
Nonetheless, the risk of acquiring Waiters would probably be too great. Golden State's most recent attempt to bring in a scoring-minded shooting guard (Nick Young) ended poorly, and unlike the other trade options, Waiters is also under contract in 2020-21 at $12.65 million.