What's expected of every team in NBA free agency?
Teams and players officially can begin negotiating new deals at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, though a lot of that work is getting underway this week.
To help break down what's possible this offseason, NBA Insiders Kevin Pelton and André Snellings lay out the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for each franchise. We're continuing with the 15 teams in the Western Conference. We've included cap-space projections and potential free-agency targets.
Which teams can quickly become contenders, and which ones are better off focusing on the future? Let's dive in.
Part 1: Best and worst case for every East team
Dallas Mavericks
Projected cap space: $28.8 million
Potential free-agency targets: Kemba Walker, Al Horford, Patrick Beverley
Best case: The Mavericks have a window to use their salary-cap space to bring in high-priced players before extending Kristaps Porzingis. They make the necessary moves to create $37 million in room and use that to sign both Al Horford and Patrick Beverley. These are two tough, defensive-minded veterans who can knock down the 3, maximize their contributions without needing the ball and teach the younger Mavs how to win.
Worst case: Dallas signs Porzingis to a max extension that doesn't have protections against future injuries and a full four-year deal is required to bring in the 33-year-old Horford, tying the team's long-term viability to two risky situations. -- Snellings
Denver Nuggets
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Paul Millsap, Trevor Ariza, DeMarre Carroll
Best case: Denver's biggest decision will be what to do with Millsap's $30.15 million team option. The Nuggets could decline it and try to re-sign Millsap to a deal with a lower starting salary over more years, but that might complicate avoiding the luxury tax once Jamal Murray is on a new contract in 2020-21. The best option for Denver is probably to pick up Millsap's option and use the non-taxpayer midlevel exception to add a defensive specialist with more size than wing Torrey Craig.
Worst case: If the Nuggets decline Millsap's option and he somehow leaves in free agency, they'll have a tough time finding an equivalent replacement with a maximum of $17.5 million in cap space. -- Pelton
Golden State Warriors
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, DeMarre Carroll, Wayne Ellington, Justin Holiday, Wesley Matthews, Kevon Looney, DeMarcus Cousins, Jordan Bell, Quinn Cook
Best case: With only six players under guaranteed contract for 2019-20, the Golden State front office will be busy this summer. The Warriors must attempt to re-sign Durant and Thompson while finding replacements for them after both suffered long-term injuries during the NBA Finals. Trading veteran guard Shaun Livingston (whose contract is $2 million guaranteed) for a combo forward such as Jae Crowder and using the tax midlevel exception on a guard such as Ellington or Matthews would be ideal. Then Golden State will try to re-sign centers Cousins and Looney without pushing too deep into the luxury tax.
Worst case: In a nightmare scenario, Durant and Thompson both sign elsewhere, leaving the Warriors with half of the four stars who led them to championships in 2017 and 2018. -- Pelton
Houston Rockets
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Jimmy Butler
Best case: The Rockets seem to be all-in on bringing Jimmy Butler to town. They accomplish this by first trading 25-year old Clint Capela ($16.9 million; perhaps as the center of the future for the up-and-coming Atlanta Hawks, for Alex Len and a future first-round pick) to open space. They then package Eric Gordon (expiring $14 million) and Nene Hilario (expiring $3.8 million if he opts in) plus two first-round picks to the 76ers for a signed-and-traded Butler to get three stars to make a run this season.
Worst case: The Rockets already have a lineup capable of competing at a championship level, especially in a landscape with a weakened Golden State, so their outlook is generally positive. That said, the worst case is that the team implodes from within: that the rumors of team turmoil surrounding the relationships of James Harden and Chris Paul contain truth, that Mike D'Antoni's contract negotiations cause an irreparable rift, that the trade rumors cause hard feelings and/or that their older and thin roster experiences injuries that turn the team into a lame duck in the luxury tax. -- Snellings
LA Clippers
Projected cap space: $42.3 million
Potential free-agency targets: Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Al Horford, Patrick Beverley, Rodney McGruder, Ivica Zubac
Best case: After a full year of pining for him, the Clippers sign Leonard as their centerpiece. They then pursue a second star to pair with him. Trading Danilo Gallinari to a team with the cap space to send no matching salary in return would allow them to offer a max to a player with seven to nine years of experience or $30 million-plus to Horford while retaining full Bird rights on free agents Beverley, McGruder and Zubac.
Worst case: Leonard signs a multiyear deal to stay in Toronto, dashing the Clippers' plans, and they pivot by overpaying second-tier free agents on long-term deals that hamper their flexibility. -- Pelton
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected cap space: $32 million or $23.1 million
Potential free-agency targets: Kyrie Irving, D'Angelo Russell, Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Danny Green, George Hill, DeAndre Jordan, Nerlens Noel
Best case: The Lakers use incentives considered unlikely to be achieved -- for example, a bonus for the team winning 45 games or reaching the playoffs -- to maximize their limited cap space and get solid role players Beverley and Green as a starting backcourt. They then add a rim-running rim protector such as Jordan or Noel, using their room exception while filling out the bench with the remaining young talent and players willing to take the minimum to play in L.A. with two stars.
Worst case: The Lakers spend their remaining cap space to sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson. -- Pelton
Memphis Grizzlies
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Jonas Valanciunas
Best case: The Grizzlies use the salary-cap flexibility afforded by the Mike Conley trade to re-sign Valanciunas to a long-term but reasonable deal and keep Avery Bradley, whose deal was not fully guaranteed. This gives them their talented core of the future in Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Valanciunas surrounded by tough, defense-minded veterans to help mold the team into the next generation of Grit and Grind.
Worst case: They already avoided it with the Conley deal, which left them room to operate without falling into the luxury tax. -- Snellings
Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Tyus Jones, D'Angelo Russell
Best case: The Timberwolves somehow persuade another team to take on the remaining four years and $120 million-plus on Andrew Wiggins' contract, facilitating a sign-and-trade that brings Russell to Minnesota to team with longtime friend Karl-Anthony Towns.
Worst case: The Timberwolves are stuck with Wiggins and point guard Jeff Teague, meaning a strong offer sheet to backup point guard Jones forces them not to match, lest they go into the luxury tax. -- Pelton
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected cap space: $31.3 million
Potential free-agency targets: Nikola Mirotic
Best case: The Pelicans are well on their way to their best-case offseason scenario after winning the Zion Williamson sweepstakes and surrounding him with a huge haul of young assets with the Anthony Davis deal and subsequent draft. The Pelicans have enough cap space to make a max offer, but as their young core isn't ready to contend, cap flexibility might be more valuable than a max guy. They are thin in the frontcourt, and signing a veteran stretch big such as old friend Mirotic would make sense.
Worst case: New team president David Griffin has seemingly made all the right moves so far, so it's hard to see him overpaying a non-impact player who would stunt crucial development and minimize valuable future cap flexibility. Thus, the biggest risk would appear to be aggressively extending Brandon Ingram before he proves himself in New Orleans. -- Snellings
Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Nerlens Noel
Best case: Because the Thunder start free agency deep in the luxury tax, they're unlikely to make use of their taxpayer midlevel exception. As a result, the best-case scenario for Oklahoma City is probably Noel deciding to pick up his reasonable $2 million player option for 2019-20.
Worst case: Noel leaves, and the market for backup centers is hotter than expected, making it difficult for the Thunder to replace him using only the veterans minimum. -- Pelton
Phoenix Suns
Projected cap space: $14 million
Potential free-agency targets: Patrick Beverley, Terry Rozier, Tomas Satoransky, Delon Wright, Kelly Oubre
Best case: The Celtics sign a star point guard such as Kemba Walker, forcing them to renounce the rights to Rozier and allowing Phoenix to snap him up on a modest contract for a starting point guard using their $12.5 million or so in cap space. That means the Suns can re-sign restricted free agent Oubre to a reasonable long-term deal.
Worst case: The Suns come in with an offer to a restricted free-agent point guard and see it matched, tying up their cap space while the rest of the market moves on. That could leave Phoenix picking from second-tier point guard options such as T.J. McConnell, Elfrid Payton and Rajon Rondo. Meanwhile, another team comes in with a big offer sheet for Oubre, forcing the Suns to make a difficult decision about whether to match. -- Pelton
Portland Trail Blazers
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Al-Farouq Aminu, Seth Curry, Rodney Hood, Enes Kanter, Jake Layman
Best case: Free agency for the Blazers will probably be more about retaining players than adding them. If they can re-sign Aminu to a deal with a modest raise on the $7 million he made last season and use the taxpayer midlevel exception to re-sign Curry or Hood for perimeter depth, they'll have done well.
Worst case: The market for Curry and Hood is too expensive for Portland to compete with only the tax midevel to offer, and Aminu becomes too pricey given the Blazers' tax concerns. That leaves them with only the tax midlevel to find replacements for all three players plus Kanter. -- Pelton
Sacramento Kings
Projected cap space: $14 million (but fluid)
Potential free-agency targets: Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, Al Horford, Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez
Best case: Barnes walks, giving the Kings nearly $60 million in cap space to use. In that case, they could try to tempt Harris or Middleton with a max offer while still having plenty of money for an upgrade at center with Horford or Vucevic.
Worst case: Sacramento spends $25 million per year on Barnes and gets used for leverage by the top free agents on the market. With new contracts for Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic set for the summer of 2020, the Kings decide they have to use their remaining cap space to overpay second-tier players on long-term deals and end up having to dodge the luxury tax once De'Aaron Fox is on an extension in 2021-22. -- Pelton
San Antonio Spurs
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: DeMar DeRozan (candidate for extension; not a free agent)
Best case: The Spurs agree to an extension with DeRozan this offseason, solidifying him and LaMarcus Aldridge as their foundation on an otherwise developing team, with 10 players under the age of 25. Alternatively, they could look to trade DeRozan (perhaps for a reunion with Dwane Casey in Detroit, for the expiring deals of Reggie Jackson and Langston Galloway plus young shooter Luke Kennard and two future first-round picks), aggressively develop their young players and jump-start the rebuild process.
Worst case: This Spurs team, as currently constituted, doesn't have championship upside without significant development from their young players and probably without adding more talent moving forward. Thus, the worst-case scenario is re-signing Rudy Gay plus other veteran starters on longer deals with their exceptions and pushing the young players back to the bench while clogging the team's future cap flexibility. Moves that lock the Spurs into their current status quo for the foreseeable future are to be avoided. -- Snellings
Utah Jazz
Projected cap space: None
Potential free-agency targets: Paul Millsap, Nikola Mirotic, JaMychal Green, Ed Davis
Best case: The Nuggets inexplicably decline Millsap's team option without a deal in place to re-sign him, and the Jazz swoop in to bring him back to Salt Lake City, simultaneously strengthening their frontcourt versatility and weakening a West rival.
Worst case: Utah decides to guarantee Derrick Favors' $17.65 million salary, leaving only the $4.7 million room exception to use in free agency, and Green proves too pricey for that spot. That leaves the Jazz scrambling to find a stretch-4 option to replace Jae Crowder. -- Pelton