New Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas made his first move Thursday, moving up five picks in the NBA draft in exchange for sending forward Dario Saric to the Phoenix Suns. What does the move tell us about how both teams plan to approach the offseason?
The deal
Timberwolves get: 2019 No. 6 pick (Jarrett Culver)
Suns get: 2019 No. 11 pick (Cameron Johnson), Dario Saric
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Phoenix Suns: B
Any questions about the Suns' plans in free agency after trading T.J. Warren early Thursday to clear cap space seem to be resolved by this move, which makes it unlikely Phoenix will draft a point guard. After Darius Garland and Coby White, at least one of whom almost certainly would have been on the board when the Suns drafted at No. 6, the next-best ball handler in the ESPN top 100 is Virginia Tech's Nickeil Alexander-Walker at 18. Barring another trade down, it seems unlikely Alexander-Walker is Phoenix's target.
Instead, the Suns seem prepared to head out into free agency in pursuit of a point guard -- see the Warren trade grade for more on their potential options -- after filling another need at power forward with this trade. Although it's possible Phoenix could play smaller lineups with Mikal Bridges at the 4, right now Saric looks like the favorite to start at power forward on opening night. Given that probability, his $3.5 million salary in the final year of his rookie deal is a huge bargain.
Saric is such a good value, in fact, that the Suns scarcely affected their cap space in dealing for him. Because Saric will likely replace a minimum cap hold and the No. 11 pick will count $1.8 million less against the cap than the No. 6 pick, Phoenix added less than a million dollars to its team salary with this trade.
Offensively, Saric should be a boost to a Suns attack that got little from its power forwards after Warren's season-ending ankle injury. He's a capable ball handler for his size and a 38% 3-point shooter over the past two seasons -- basically a much better version of incumbent Phoenix power forward Dragan Bender, a less consistent 3-point threat whom teams didn't have to fear as a scorer.
The Suns will sacrifice a little bit at the defensive end, where Saric is best paired with a strong rim protector like Joel Embiid, his frontcourt mate with the Philadelphia 76ers. That doesn't describe Phoenix center Deandre Ayton, and Saric won't help compensate for Ayton's weak rim protection.
Depending on your evaluation of this year's draft class, the Suns may have moved down a tier in terms of talent by going from sixth to 11th. Still, I think that's worth it to add Saric to the mix.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
This feels like the start of a busy offseason for the Timberwolves as Rosas reshapes the roster in his vision. Minnesota didn't really have a need at the wing, where starters Robert Covington and Andrew Wiggins are under contract through 2022 (Covington) and 2023 (Wiggins), and the team drafted Josh Okogie in the first round last year.
As a result, taking Jarrett Culver figures to be the precursor for another move. Will the Timberwolves try to trade the underachieving Wiggins to create additional cap flexibility? That seems more likely than a move involving Covington, who began his NBA career with the Houston Rockets, Rosas' former team.
Minnesota also now has a glaring need at power forward, where Saric is gone and veteran Taj Gibson is an unrestricted free agent. I'd be shocked if the Timberwolves plan to move Karl-Anthony Towns to power forward on a regular basis, so there's a move to be made there too -- possibly involving Teague.
Without a better understanding of Rosas' plan for Minnesota's roster, it's difficult to place this trade in context. In terms of value, it's a reasonable move up. The difference between the sixth and 11th picks according to my trade value chart based on historical production and salary is 470 points, equivalent to the top pick of the second round. That seems like a fair valuation for one year of Saric's services on a bargain contract.