Now that Zion Williamson and the rest of the 2019 class have been drafted into the NBA, it's time to shift our full attention to next year's crop of prospects.
James Wiseman and Cole Anthony have stood out for the better part of three years in settings such as USA Basketball, the Nike EYBL, Basketball Without Borders camps and various FIBA events. That has given us a good starting point to begin to evaluate the 2020 class -- as well as 2021, which is already underway.
We'll continue that process over the course of the summer, attending the FIBA Under-19 World Cup, plus the A and B divisions of the FIBA Europe junior championships, including the U16, U18 and U20 tournaments. We'll cap that off with the CP3 camp and USA Basketball minicamp in July, and the Nike Skills Academy in August. Be on the lookout for our first projection of the 2021 NBA draft in the fall.
Here's what we know so far for 2020 and what we're watching most closely:
We used the same draft order as our previous 2020 mock draft, primarily based on the pre-lottery standings in 2019. Although the 2020 draft is too far away to reasonably predict the team order, this gives a sense of picks owed and owned.
Storylines to watch
• The race for the No. 1 pick is wide open at the moment, just as it was at this point last year. Wiseman gets the nod with the top slot for now, but he will have plenty of challengers, meaning a productive, efficient and winning season at Memphis will certainly be required to hold that spot. Only one center being drafted in the top 10 in 2019 -- and only three overall in the first round, the lowest number since 2009 -- might be a hint at what's in store for Wiseman and other bigs in this class. It remains to be seen how much value teams are putting in 7-footers in the modern NBA, as we've seen a swing in recent years toward guards, wings and forwards who offer more versatility as shot-creators and multipositional defenders.
• That trend is reflected well in the rest of our first round, as only two other centers are projected to be selected in the top 50 outside of Wiseman. That probably will evolve over time, as it did in 2019, when players such as Jaxson Hayes, Mfiondu Kabengele, Nic Claxton and Bruno Fernando developed more quickly than expected and moved up. We'll have to monitor the progress of Zeke Nnaji, Drew Timme, Omar Payne, Kai Jones, Charles Bassey, Neemias Queta and others.
• Very few legitimate first-round-caliber prospects bypassed testing the waters or withdrawing from the draft. Only one returning college player -- Tre Jones at No. 16 -- is currently projected to be picked in the top 24 in our mock right now, something that is highly likely to change once the college season gets going.
• Beside Jones, guards Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State), A.J. Lawson (South Carolina), Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois), Ashton Hagans (Kentucky), Devon Dotson (Kansas), Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama), Isaiah Joe (Arkansas), A.J. Reeves (Providence) and Xavier Johnson (Pittsburgh) all fall in the Nos. 25-45 portion of our mock, giving quite a bit of depth to the backcourt class and representing the most likely candidates to surge up draft boards as sophomores like Ja Morant and Jarrett Culver did in 2019.
• The year 2019 was a historically weak class for international prospects not based in the U.S., so expect 2020 to be significantly different. Early on, we already see two Europeans projected in the top five in Deni Avdija and Theo Maledon. They are joined in the first round by internationals Killian Hayes (France), Amar Sylla (Senegal) and Henri Drell (Estonia). Matthieu Gauzin (France), Paul Eboua (Cameroon), Arturs Zagars (Latvia), Nikita Mikhailovskii (Russia) and Gytis Masiulis (Lithuania) aren't far behind them in the second round, making up a strong group.
• For the first time, we have two American players projected in the first round who won't be playing college basketball: R.J. Hampton and LaMelo Ball. The two joined the Australian National Basketball League's Next Star program and will be forcing NBA executives to log quite a few miles to track the potential lottery picks. Their four head-to-head matchups in New Zealand and Australia probably will be heavily attended. A third player, Terry Armstrong, the No. 40 recruit in the 2019 class, according to ESPN, will also bypass college basketball for professional basketball. Armstrong, from Flint, Michigan, struggled academically early in high school, something that ultimately prevented him from remaining academically eligible, a source told ESPN. Armstrong has generated interest from the NBL, a source said, but could still end up in Europe or the G League. While he wasn't particularly highly regarded by recruiting services, Armstrong has intriguing physical tools and scoring instincts. He has already found a spot on our 2020 mock draft at No. 40.
• Quite a few rising high school seniors are actually eligible for the 2020 NBA draft age-wise, as they are turning 19 in the calendar year of the draft, but they will need to reclassify academically to accelerate their eligibility due to the somewhat vague language of the age limit in the NBA collective bargaining agreement. They will need to either graduate high school before the start of the 2020 NBA regular season or take the drastic move of dropping out of high school altogether (something that has never been attempted in relation to earning eligibility for the NBA draft and is a gray area). Jalen Lecque was able to petition the NBA successfully to be eligible for the 2019 NBA draft despite technically being a high school senior at Brewster Academy, but he had a strong case as he already had his high school diploma in hand. He ended up going undrafted Thursday rather than enrolling as a freshman at NC State this summer.
In 2020, this group of players includes some of the top players in the class, such as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Johnson, Ziaire Williams, Scottie Barnes, Greg Brown and B.J. Boston -- all potential lottery prospects as early as next year. One player who just completed his high school sophomore year, Terrence Clarke, falls under this umbrella, too, as he was born in 2001.
The NBA has yet to turn down any player who is eligible age-wise to enter the draft, at least not that's publicly known, as losing that fight could open up a messy legal battle over the age limit. Entering the NBA a year or two ahead of schedule could be worth tens of millions of dollars to the right player. Could this be the year that a prospect challenges the language of the age limit and attempts to enter the draft in the calendar year he turns 19, as international players are already allowed to?
• The lack of star power in the 2019 high school class might cause you to believe we're headed for an older 2020 draft, but that hasn't materialized yet at this stage. That just means there is more uncertainty at the top, similar to what we saw with the 2019 draft class. The average age of players projected to be picked in the first round of our 2020 mock is 18.5 (19.5 on draft day next year), much younger than the first round of the 2019 NBA draft, which was 20.3 (we forecast this number to end up at 20.2 last year).
That's fairly normal, as we often give the benefit of the doubt to younger players who we anticipate will end up improving in these types of forecasts. Not a single player projected in our top 40 has turned 20 yet, and we don't have any juniors or seniors currently projected in our top 45 picks, which is highly unlikely to remain the case.
• Part of the reason why we're projecting next year's draft to be so young is because of the mass exodus we saw from college basketball at the NBA draft withdrawal deadline. A record number of underclassmen elected to keep their names in the draft, with 45 U.S.-based early entrants ending up going undrafted, five of them under the age of 20. There is little doubt that some of those 45 players would have been selected in 2020 had they decided to stay in school for another year.
• Are the mid-major ranks where we should be looking for unheralded college players who might end up being selected in 2020? The results of the 2019 NBA draft indicate that's a possibility. Ten players from outside the power six conferences (ACC, SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East) were selected, the most we've seen since 2013. Mid-majors are firmly on our radar going into 2020 as well, as seven players from outside the power six conferences are already projected to be drafted.
• A number of draft picks have already moved hands in 2020.
Cleveland's first-rounder is owned by New Orleans, protected Nos. 1-10 through 2020. It converts to second-round picks in 2021 and 2022 if not conveyed. The Cavs are deep in their rebuilding process after losing LeBron James to the Los Angeles Lakers last summer, and it would be surprising if they were good enough to convey this pick to the Pelicans.
Atlanta also owns Brooklyn's first-round pick, unless the Nets surprisingly miss the playoffs, in which case it has similar protection in 2021 and 2022.
Boston owns the Memphis Grizzlies' first-rounder. It is protected Nos. 1-6 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. The Grizzlies probably will be worse next season after trading Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, but an all-out tank job might be necessary to salvage this pick due to the flattened lottery odds.
Memphis will receive Utah's first-rounder if it falls to Nos. 8-14. If the Jazz make the playoffs, as expected, the pick will roll over with the same protections in 2021. In 2022, the pick will convey if it is Nos. 7-30, which seems most likely.
Milwaukee's first-rounder will be conveyed to Boston if it falls to Nos. 8-30 in 2020. Giannis Antetokounmpo and head coach Mike Budenholzer make it difficult to fathom this pick not being conveyed, probably as a late first-rounder.
Philadelphia's first-rounder will be conveyed to Brooklyn if it falls to Nos. 15-30, with similar protection in 2021 and 2022 in the unlikely case the Sixers miss the playoffs. This pick projects as a late first-rounder right now.
Oklahoma City's first-rounder will be conveyed to Philadelphia if it falls to Nos. 21-30. If it doesn't, OKC will convey its 2022 and 2023 second-round picks.