For the first time in years, there is uncertainty surrounding the Golden State Warriors' roster.
The injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson during the NBA Finals have now left the Warriors anything but a sure bet to reach a sixth consecutive Finals, and even their path back to the playoffs carries questions.
Here are the decisions that Golden State faces this offseason, including Durant's free agency following his Achilles injury, how a torn ACL will impact Thompson's new deal, rebuilding this bench and potential extension talks with Draymond Green.
Get more team-by-team NBA offseason guides here.
Kevin Durant's options
Despite the Achilles injury, Durant will still have teams lined up willing to offer him a four-year, $164 million contract in free agency, even if he does not play one game in 2019-20.
ESPN canvassed the league after Durant's injury, asking front offices if they would still offer the All-Star forward a max contract. The answer from teams was a resounding yes.
Teams that ESPN talked to also confirmed that they would not add injury protections to the final two years of a contract to hedge against a reoccurring injury. Such protections, if proposed, could resemble the contract extension Joel Embiid signed with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017.
The big question now: Will Golden State be willing to commit to a five-year, $221 million offer for Durant?
That's still unknown. Such a contract would not be insurable, meaning Golden State (or a new team, if KD leaves) would not get a reimbursement if he misses all of next season. Had this injury occurred at the start of next season, the Warriors could have been reimbursed $11.27 million (or $275K per game), but that stipulation wouldn't apply to a new deal.
The contract would also present a heavy luxury-tax burden for the Warriors. However, remember that by signing two team-friendly contracts since 2017, Durant has saved the Warriors over $70 million in salary and luxury tax. The Warriors' loyalty will be tested with his free agency, if he wants to return.
Here are the options for Durant this offseason:
The player option
Before June 29, Durant and his manager Rich Kleiman will need to decide on the $31.5 million player option for 2019-20. Opting in would present one safe route for Durant, insuring that he will have a guaranteed salary even with the Achilles injury.
But the market for Durant is expected to be strong even if he elects to opt out, making that safe option less of a necessity. Kleiman should have preliminary talks with Golden State and teams interested in Durant to confirm that there will be a new, max contract awaiting his client when free agency begins on June 30. Opting out would indicate that Durant has that promised financial security on the way.
The full max (with or without protections)
After earning $190 million since 2007, Durant could sign a $221 million contract with the Warriors or a $164 million contract to sign with a team such as the Brooklyn Nets, LA Clippers or New York Knicks.
Golden State or a new team still can try to protect the back end of the contract if the same Achilles injury ends up limiting Durant.
Here are three different options:
The prior injury exclusion: Known as an Exhibit 3 in the collective bargaining agreement, this kind of language could eliminate future compensation if Durant suffered a similar injury to the same Achilles. The language would be similar to what is included in Zach LaVine's contract with the Chicago Bulls.
Minutes criteria: Durant could need to play 1,650 minutes in either 2020-21 or 2021-22 for the final two years (2022-23 and 2023-24) of the contract to become guaranteed.
Games played: Comparable to the minutes criteria, Durant could need to play a minimum of 55 games in 2021-22 (Year 3) or 2022-23 (Year 4) for the final seasons to become guaranteed.
If the Warriors make an offer with one of these stipulations, they risk losing Durant for nothing. As mentioned above, teams are willing to take on Durant even without a safety net.
The short-term contract
Durant's Achilles injury should serve as a warning against him signing another one-plus-one deal (a guaranteed season with a player option). His short-term deal in 2016 was supposed to get him to 10 years of service, allowing him to sign a long-term max contract for 35% of the cap. Then he took another short-term approach for two years, $51.2 million, giving Golden State financial flexibility to retain key reserves Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala.
One more one-plus-one later, Durant has the option to return to Golden State or head to a new team in a major market as the cap rises to $109 million. But there is no real financial incentive in another short-term deal.
The finances and roster: With KD and without
The Warriors will be in the luxury tax even if KD leaves. The question comes down to how much they'll have to pay.
One scenario: The Warriors sign a league-record four players to max contracts by re-signing Durant and Thompson this summer and then extending Green on a max deal for 2020-21.
That is not a misprint. Keeping this team together and filling out the roster with minimum players, first-round picks, the tax midlevel exception and Kevon Looney on a three-year, $15 million contract would cost Golden State close to $1.6 billion in salary and luxury in the next four seasons.
With Durant on the team, Golden State will likely be rewarded the $9.2 million Disabled Player Exception if the NBA deems that the Achilles injury would hold him out until June 15, 2020. The exception would allow the Warriors to sign a free agent (or acquire a player in a trade or off waivers) to a one-year contract. However, using the full amount would cost Golden State an extra $68 million toward the luxury tax.
Keep in mind that the team was bought for $450 million in 2010.
The second scenario: There would be $960 million in savings by retaining Thompson and losing Durant, but the Warriors would still be hampered by restrictions in filling out the rest of the roster.
In at least three of the next four seasons, the Warriors would still be in the luxury tax. The Warriors once again would need to rely on the draft and identifying bargains in free agency. There would be a consistent rotating door when it comes to the bench.
In the unlikely scenario that both Durant and Thompson do not return, Golden State would be under the luxury tax but left with only $14 million in cap space to use in free agency.
Prioritizing Klay Thompson
Like with Durant, the loyalty of the Warriors will be tested when it comes to Thompson. Before suffering a torn left ACL in Game 6, Thompson was in line to receive a five-year, $190 million max deal from Golden State. Will the Warriors still make that commitment, even with the likelihood the he will miss a significant amount of time in 2019-20?
Since signing a non-max rookie extension of four years and $69 million in 2014, Thompson has outperformed his contract. His $19.0 million cap hit in 2018-19 ranked No. 9 among shooting guards and No. 50 overall.
Here is the breakdown of a new max Thompson contract in Golden State:
Because Thompson will be signing a new contract, Golden State will not get an insurance reimbursement if the guard misses more than 41 games next season due to the left knee injury. Like with Durant, Golden State can add language to the contract that would protect the organization against future injury.
Golden State's other free agents
The Durant and Thompson injuries put even more pressure on Golden State's front office to build out this roster under heavy constraints. If both players return and combine to make $80 million in salary on the inactive list, the Warriors will be left deciding on their own free agents and bargain shopping in free agency with only minimums and $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception.
One direction Golden State can take is exploring moving out of the first-round to acquire multiple second-round picks as a way to fill out the roster with young talent. For example, the Warriors could offer their own first-rounder (No. 28) to the Philadelphia 76ers for Nos. 33 and 34.
Here is a look at the decisions the front office will face when retooling the rotation.
1. Kevon Looney
The Warriors would like to have a mulligan when it came to declining the fourth-year option in Looney's rookie scale contract. Had Golden State exercised the 2018-19 option, Looney would be a restricted free agent this summer, with the Warriors having the right to match any offer sheet.
Like last summer, Looney will enter the market place as an unrestricted free agent. This difference this year is that Golden State now has Bird rights on the forward -- last summer, the Warriors were restricted to offering him a contract that could not exceed $2.2 million.
Expect Looney's new salary to fall in the $5 million range.
Yet again, Cousins could be in a holding pattern until the top free agents are off the board.
Despite a strong regular season -- 16.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG in 25.7 MPG -- Cousins will be looking at offers starting at the $9.3 million midlevel exception on a long-term deal or a one-year salary at an inflated number (see JJ Redick).
Because Cousins signed for one year, $5.3 million last summer, the Warriors are restricted to re-signing him to no more than $6.36 million.
3. Quinn Cook
Cook went from recording five DNPs in the first two rounds of the playoffs to becoming a key player off the bench when Durant went out with an injury. Since KD got hurt, Cook has averaged 13 MPG and 5 PPG.
Assuming the Warriors extend him a qualifying offer, the guard will be a restricted free agent with early Bird rights, meaning Golden State can exceed the cap and offer Cook a contract starting at $10.4 million. The contract would have to be for a minimum of two seasons.
Cook also could be brought back on a one-year, $2 million salary using non-Bird rights.
4. Jordan Bell
After seeing inconsistent minutes (11.6 MPG) in the regular season, Bell went from a starter in Game 4 against the Portland Trail Blazers and the opening game of the Finals to playing nine seconds in Game 2 and recording a DNP in Game 4.
Like Cook, Bell also will be a restricted free agent with early Bird rights if the Warriors tender him a qualifying offer.
After being waived by Utah in July, Jerebko signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Warriors.
The forward has non-Bird rights and is eligible to return on a one-year, $3 million contract.
6. Andrew Bogut
The veteran signed a one-year contract in late March as an insurance policy to Cousins and also as a result to the injury of Damian Jones.
Bogut has non-Bird rights and will likely return to Australia once the season is over.
The future of Draymond Green
The Warriors are handcuffed when it comes to a new contract with Green. Despite Green being eligible for an extension and owner Joe Lacob proclaiming to The Athletic's Marcus Thompson that he wants Green with the team forever, Golden State is restricted in what it can offer the forward in a new contract.
Because Green missed out on All-NBA and is unlikely to win Defensive Player of the Year honors, Golden State can't offer Green an extension now worth more than $100 million over four seasons. That extension is $102 million less than what Green could get the next year as a free agent from the Warriors and $50 million less than his max on a new team using cap space in 2020.
Green ranks as the No. 2 unrestricted free agent in 2020, behind only Anthony Davis.
Summer cap breakdown
Note: Kevin Durant has a player option. That cap hold applies if he opts out.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy a second-round pick
Own free agents: Durant, Thompson, Looney and Cousins
The exceptions: $5.7 million tax and minimum
Dates to watch
• Durant has until June 29 to opt out of his $31.5 million salary for next season and become a free agent.
• Golden State will need to make a decision on Shaun Livingston a day later. One of the five remaining players of the original championship team from 2015, Livingston has a $7.7 million contract that will become guaranteed if he is not waived by June 30. The veteran has $2 million in protected salary that the Warriors can stretch and take on a $666,666 cap hit for three seasons.
• Golden State has until June 29 to tender Jordan Bell and Quinn Cook one-year qualifying offers. The value for Bell is $1.8 million, with Cook's offer worth $1.9 million. After starting 13 games last season, Bell has seen his role reduced this year, including averaging only 2.6 MPG in the playoffs.
The Warriors would have until July 13 to pull either qualifying offer.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• Curry has a 15% trade bonus in his contract that would be voided in the unlikely scenario he is traded, as he's already making the maximum possible salary.
• Besides Green, Golden State has Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Damian Jones extension-eligible. Jones can be extended up until Oct. 21.
The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Golden State selecting in June:
No. 28 (own): Eric Paschall | F | Villanova
No. 58 (own): Alen Smailagic | PF/C | Santa Cruz
Golden State owns all of its future first-round picks.