Maybe that's not all, folks? The New Orleans Pelicans winning the 2019 NBA draft lottery and getting the rights to select Duke forward Zion Williamson with the No. 1 overall pick could change their plans regarding the trade request by All-Star big man Anthony Davis.
How good could the Pelicans be next season if they hold on to Davis and pair him with Williamson, whose consensus projection by my draft model is the best of any NCAA prospect since Davis in 2012? Or should New Orleans still look to deal Davis and package additional young talent around Williamson to try to dominate the next decade?
Let's take a look at the Pelicans' options, which look a lot better as of Tuesday night than they did earlier in the day.
Building around AD and Zion
If new executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin tries to build the best possible team with Davis and Williamson in 2019-20, New Orleans could have interesting options in free agency. Assuming incumbent power forward Julius Randle declines a $9.1 million player option for 2019-20, the Pelicans could accumulate approximately $24 million in cap room by also waiving forward Solomon Hill and stretching his $12.8 million salary over the next three years.
Those moves would leave New Orleans with Davis and starting wings Jrue Holiday, E'Twaun Moore and Kenrich Williams returning, meaning a clear need at point guard. Incumbent Elfrid Payton is an unrestricted free agent after starting all 42 games he played last season while missing extended stretches due to injury.
New Orleans wouldn't have enough cap space to make a play for likely max free agents Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker without making additional trades, but could get in the mix for the second tier of free agents at PG. Looking strictly at building the best possible team next season to try to sell Davis on staying, Goran Dragic would be an interesting option if he declines a $19.2 million player option with the Miami Heat. Dragic, who nearly came to the Crescent City as part of the return for Chris Paul under the vetoed three-team deal that would have sent Paul to the L.A. Lakers, would offer the ability to run the offense or play off the ball when Holiday or even Zion acts as playmaker.
Alternatively, the Pelicans could try to force a team into a tough decision on a restricted free agent at point guard. They could offer Brooklyn Nets All-Star D'Angelo Russell a four-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million, which might be a tough call for the Nets. Tyus Jones of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Terry Rozier of the Boston Celtics and Delon Wright of the Memphis Grizzlies would be more affordable options, since none of them have established themselves as starting point guards.
Could New Orleans contend?
Let's project the Pelicans with one of the point guards, plus the players under contract next season -- including Jahlil Okafor, who has a team option, and the non-guaranteed salaries of Dairis Bertans, Kenrich Williams and Christian Wood -- and Williamson. Using the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus gives New Orleans a baseline of 44 to 47 wins, depending on the point guard, with the potential of improving that by using any remaining cap space or the room exception to upgrade the bench.
That's in the same neighborhood as last season, when the Pelicans were projected for between 43 and 44 wins on average by RPM entering the year. Zion and one of the point guards I've mentioned would be a modest upgrade on the duo of Randle and Payton that played the same spots last season, and a deep playoff run would certainly be possible for New Orleans if everything broke right. (After all, one of the teams behind the Pelicans in the RPM projections was the Portland Trail Blazers, currently playing in the Western Conference finals.)
At the same time, New Orleans would again be depending on staying healthy after injuries to Davis, Moore and Payton helped sink the team's 2018-19 playoff hopes. Given that fact, Griffin bringing Aaron Nelson in from the Phoenix Suns' famed athletic training staff might be as important as any offseason addition, save Williamson.
Better to trade AD now or play things out?
Without knowing Davis' thinking, it's tough to say exactly what the Pelicans should do from the outside. That said, I would probably be inclined to trade him this summer even after New Orleans won the lottery.
Yes, the Pelicans could still trade Davis up to next season's trade deadline, but teams may be wary of protracted, public negotiations in the wake of how proposals by the Lakers involving their young players leaked to the media and created an awkward situation in their locker room. Davis also has far less value to teams hoping to convince him to stay if acquired at the deadline because of the difficulty of integrating him midseason. Unless the new team is sure Davis will re-sign in the summer of 2020, his value diminishes as the deadline approaches.
I think I'd also prefer to build the roster around Zion now, starting with the return in a Davis trade. Signing Dragic, 33, for example, makes little sense if New Orleans could soon shift toward a longer timetable for competing with young talent. And although the restricted free-agent point guards are better fits age-wise for Williamson, having them in place could limit the Pelicans' flexibility in building trade packages for Davis.
Ultimately, I think New Orleans with Davis next season would be likely to end up in the uncomfortable middle ground between struggling so much it's obvious he must be traded before the deadline and so competitive that Davis could be convinced to re-sign with the Pelicans. Given that fact, New Orleans may still be better off trading Davis now.