The Boston Celtics' offseason starts and ends with Kyrie Irving.
The All-Star point guard's decision to re-sign or go elsewhere will dictate Boston's plans in free agency, Anthony Davis trade talks and a Jaylen Brown extension.
And Irving isn't the Celtics' only free agent. A mass exodus is possible, with Al Horford (player option), Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier (restricted).
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Celtics this offseason as they try to rebound and build a title contender.
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The future of Kyrie Irving
There is no negotiating when it comes to a new contract for Irving after he declines his player option for next season. Either the Celtics are going to offer the point guard a five-year, $189 million max contract or Irving is going to sign with a team that has cap space. Unlike in 2018, when the market was squeezed, more than 10 teams will have room, including the New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and both teams in Los Angeles.
There are also wild cards: The Dallas Mavericks could pitch teaming up Irving with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
Here is the breakdown of an Irving contract in Boston compared to signing elsewhere:
Signing with a team other than the Celtics would see Irving walk away from a guaranteed $49 million, only some of which he could recoup as a 31-year-old free agent in 2023.
Keep in mind that signing with the Celtics does not guarantee that Irving finishes his career (or even the 2019-20 season) in Boston. We saw with the LA Clippers in 2018 how they turned Blake Griffin's new $171.2 million contract into draft assets and competitive players with trade value.
The roster without Irving
What does it mean if the Celtics pass on re-signing Irving? Boston would be deciding that Irving and his $189.7 million salary for the next five years are not conducive to building a championship roster.
The Celtics knew what the expectations would be when they acquired Irving in 2017 -- if the point guard remained healthy and produced at the same level from his days in Cleveland, a full max offer would be expected on July 1, 2019. Even head of basketball operations Danny Ainge confirmed that in February.
"The way I viewed the situation is that I think a lot of people, because of Kyrie's announcement at the beginning of the year, thought that it was a marriage," Ainge said on Boston station 98.5 The Sports Hub. "And I think that it's more like an engagement. And we're going to get married on July 1. I think that engagement is still on, as far as I know."
But what would the roster look like if the engagement dissolved?
For starters, the Celtics would have to make a decision about point guard. They would need to think that Rozier, a restricted free agent, is the point guard of the future, that Marcus Smart can be a full-time PG, that they can find that player in the draft with their collection of picks or that they can trade one of those picks for a starter.
Irving leaving would give the Celtics financial relief toward the luxury tax but not the cap space to find his replacement in free agency. Counting Horford's $30.1 million contract that he will likely opt into, Boston is $500K below the luxury tax when factoring in three first-round picks and the cap holds of Rozier, Morris and Daniel Theis.
In the unlikely scenario that Horford does leave, the Celtics would have $9.4 million in room to use on free agents before addressing Rozier and Morris. Removing the holds for both players would increase room to $27 million.
And next summer would present an unclear picture. Though the cap ledger shows a projected $25 million in room before a Brown extension, that number does not take into consideration a new Rozier contract and replacements for Horford and Morris.
The Celtics' other free agents
Irving is not the only pressing issue for Boston this offseason. After an uneventful 2018 summer, the Celtics are now looking at the possibility of half the roster hitting free agency.
Here is a breakdown for each player and what to expect this summer:
Al Horford
Expect Horford's decision on his $30.1 million player option to extend until the June 18 deadline. From now until mid-June, agent Jason Glushon will peruse the teams that have cap space for a potential landing spot if Horford does elect to become a free agent.
What he will find is that teams have a strong interest in the veteran, but for most teams as a Plan B if the desired targets of Irving, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson and Jimmy Butler are not available.
The Brooklyn Nets or Indiana Pacers could fit well, but their interest might not be solidified until July 4. Because of that, free agency presents high-stakes risks that will likely end up with Horford opting into his deal.
Terry Rozier
The 2018-19 season has been a learning experience for Rozier. The point guard went from starting 19 games and averaging 36.6 MPG in the playoffs last year to a reserve role; he was a nonfactor in the second-round loss to Milwaukee.
"I felt like I went from the passenger seat to the trunk," Rozier recently told ESPN's Jackie MacMullan. "Everybody tells you, 'Don't think about the contract, don't think about the money.' I always tell myself, 'I'll get what I deserve one day. Maybe not this day, but one day.'"
What Rozier will see this summer is the consequences of an inconsistent season combined with the complications of restricted free agency. Once pegged as a player in the $14 million to $16 million range -- comparable to the Bucks' Eric Bledsoe -- the market has shrunk. Rozier might have to settle for the $9.3 million midlevel exception or even sign the $4.3 million qualifying offer and enter free agency in 2020.
Of course, that number could increase if Irving leaves and the Celtics lose leverage.
Marcus Morris
The Celtics have the advantage with Horford's and Rozier's free agencies, but that isn't the case with Morris.
Coming off a four-year, $20 million contract -- one that many in the NBA consider the best bargain in the league -- Morris will see a significant pay increase this summer. At a minimum, Morris' starting salary next season should begin at the $9.3 million midlevel exception.
For playoff teams like Brooklyn, Indiana and the Clippers that miss out on their top targets, Morris will be an ideal candidate for a one-year contract in the $15 million to $20 million range.
The Anthony Davis timeline
The prevailing thought after the trade deadline was that the Celtics were in the driver's seat when it came to a potential Davis trade. But two things have changed since then.
First: The Pelicans have a new head of basketball operations, David Griffin, who made it clear that he's going to try to convince Davis to remain in New Orleans.
"We have a very long and successful history together with Klutch Sports," Griffin said at his introductory news conference. "Rich Paul [Davis' agent] and I have spoken about Anthony, and I think we're both excited about what we can potentially build here."
Second: The uncertainty surrounding Irving after losing in the second round. How aggressive can Ainge be in AD trade talks without a long-term commitment from Kyrie? Should the team still plan on pursuing a deal if Irving walks?
In any case, the logistics of any Davis trade (with or without Irving on the roster) would focus on Boston's collection of draft picks. In the event that the framework of a deal is worked out before the June 20 draft begins, Boston would be selecting for the Pelicans in the first round.
When it comes to players involved, Boston would need to send out $25 million in salary for Davis alone. That number would shrink to $22 million if Davis waived his $4 million trade bonus.
What happens with Horford's option will decide who is available. If he's a free agents, the available pool of players shrinks to a combination of Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Brown and Guerschon Yabusele. In any trade, Hayward or Smart would have to be involved because of their salary.
Keep in mind that acquiring Davis does not come with a long-term commitment. Davis would be eligible for a four-year, $145.7 million extension six months after the trade is consummated. That number would grow to $150 million in the summer of 2020 by signing with a team that has room or $202 million by re-signing in Boston.
The finances of the roster
Boston would see its payroll skyrocket if Irving returns on a max, with new deals for Brown and Tatum still on the way. The Celtics do get some cap relief in 2020 when Horford's deal is set to expire, and Hayward will be up the following year.
If the core returns, Boston is projected to have a $157 million payroll with $63.8 million in luxury tax payments, bringing the roster price to $220.8 million. In 2018-19, the team cost $130 million total.
Those numbers factor in a conservative $12 million annual cap hit for Morris, three draft picks, minimum players and letting Rozier walk. Signing Rozier to a $10 million contract would cost the Celtics an additional $44 million toward the tax.
Summer cap breakdown
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: Present and future picks
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Trade assets: Brown, Tatum and Smart
Cap exceptions: Minimum and tax midlevel
Dates to watch
• Horford has until June 18 to exercise his $30.1 million player option.
• The Celtics have until June 29 to tender one-year qualifying offers to Rozier ($4.3 million), Theis ($1.8 million), Jonathan Gibson ($1.9 million) and Brad Wanamaker ($1.6 million). Each player will become a restricted free agent if an offer is extended. The Celtics would have until July 13 to pull the offer without the consent of the player.
• Boston has until July 1 to guarantee the $1.6 million contract of Semi Ojeleye. The former second-round pick played in 56 games this season, including three starts.
Restrictions
• Even with Irving not opting in, Boston will still be ineligible to trade for Anthony Davis officially until July 1, based on the designated rookie extension rule.
• The Celtics sent out $2.5 million cash in two trades that saved $3.4 million toward the luxury tax. As a result, Boston has $2.8 million cash to buy a pick the night of the draft or use in a trade up until June 30. The full amount of $5.6 million cash will replenish starting on July 1.
• Horford and Hayward each have 15 percent trade bonuses in their contracts. Hayward's bonus would be voided in a deal since he will make the maximum salary. Horford, who will be eligible to be traded immediately if he opts in, would receive $4.5 million if he were dealt.
Extension candidates
Boston's wave of rookie extension candidates starts this summer with Brown. How the Celtics proceed will be determined by future finances and what transpires in Davis trade talks. For example, extending Brown at the onset of free agency would deem him ineligible to be traded because of the poison pill restriction in his contract.
Brown will have a $19 million cap hold as a free agent in 2020, a number that should be comparable to his projected cap hit in the first year of his new deals. If Irving returns and Brown signs for that approximate amount, the Celtics would have $90 million tied up in three players for 2020-21: Irving, Brown and Hayward. The following summer, Tatum is in line for his own extension.
Since Ainge was hired to lead the Celtics, only two first-round picks have been extended: Rajon Rondo in 2009 and Kendrick Perkins in 2006. The Smart negotiations -- which extended into restricted free agency -- show that Boston typically prefers to let the market dictate a new deal.
Hayward, Horford and Ojeleye are also extension eligible.
The draft assets
Boston will have multiple first-round picks in June, including its own, the Kings' and the Clippers'. These first-round picks give the Celtics inexpensive insurance policies in case they need to move on from their impending free agents.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Boston selecting in June:
No. 14 (via Sacramento): Brandon Clarke | F | Gonzaga
No. 20 (via LA Clippers): Bol Bol | C | Oregon
No. 22 (own): Kevin Porter Jr. | G | USC
No. 51 (own): Miye Oni | SF | Yale
With the Memphis Grizzlies keeping their protected pick, Boston will receive the Memphis pick in 2020 (top-6 protected) or 2021 (unprotected).