How far away are the Phoenix Suns from returning to the playoffs after hiring Monty Williams as head coach?
Despite that dreadful track record, Phoenix has accumulated talent through the draft lottery, including high-scoring guard Devin Booker and 2018 No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. The Suns will add another top-seven pick to that group this June. So is Phoenix close to competing again with a new coach?
Flawed but promising young building blocks
Booker's development was an encouraging sign for the Suns during the 2018-19 season. Despite slumping to a career-worst 33 percent accuracy from downtown, Booker posted a career-best .584 true shooting percentage by virtue of improved 2-point shooting and more trips to the foul line. No longer can Booker accurately be dismissed as a volume scorer, and he also improved his assists per possession by more than a third, handing them out at an above-average rate for a point guard.
The defensive end of the court remains Booker's weakness. He generates few steals, and Phoenix's defensive rating -- never good in the best of circumstances -- is even worse when Booker plays. (His on-court defensive rating ranked in the ninth percentile among shooting guards, per Cleaning the Glass.) So Booker's defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus is nearly as negative as his offensive rating is positive. Still, Booker ranked 13th overall among shooting guards at age 22, an indication he has the chance to become the star the Suns need him to be after he received a five-year max extension last summer.
The returns on Ayton's first season were mixed. As expected, Ayton's combination of size, skill and athleticism made him an efficient scorer. His .608 true shooting percentage ranked him second among rookies who played at least 500 minutes, behind Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks. As Phoenix finds more playmakers on offense, Ayton should be able to improve on the 21 percent of the team's plays he used as a rookie, becoming more of an offensive force.
At the other end of the court, Ayton showed progress over the course of the season but was still unimpressive, reinforcing concerns about him as a prospect. He blocked fewer than a shot per game and surrendered 65 percent shooting on attempts inside 5 feet, putting him among the league's bottom seven rim protectors among players who defended at least four such shots per game according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. The Suns performed better both defensively and overall with backup Richaun Holmes on the court.
Phoenix flush with wing depth, thin elsewhere
The rest of the Suns' roster is wing-heavy. Kelly Oubre Jr., who performed at a career-best level after being acquired from Washington in December, looks like a keeper heading to restricted free agency. Rookie Mikal Bridges, acquired in a draft-day trade up with Philadelphia, projects as an ideal 3-and-D wing player assuming he can improve on 34 percent 3-point shooting as a rookie. (Bridges shot 40 percent on 3s at Villanova.) Phoenix also has high-scoring combo forward T.J. Warren, who played primarily at power forward due to the team's wing depth.
Assuming the Suns bring back Oubre, it's unclear where 2017 No. 4 overall pick Josh Jackson fits in that mix. After improving dramatically in the second half of his rookie season, Jackson's development stalled and perhaps even went in reverse in Year 2. A frequent but inaccurate shooter (he posted a .487 true shooting percentage last season), Jackson hasn't yet contributed enough as a playmaker or defender to compensate for his deficiencies.
Phoenix must decide what to do with the No. 4 pick in 2016, Dragan Bender, who will be an unrestricted free agent after the Suns declined his $5.8 million option for 2019-20. Bender ended up starting 27 games and could be a floor-spacing complement to Ayton if he shoots the 3 more like he did in 2017-18 (37 percent) than last season (22 percent on 101 attempts).
At the deadline, Phoenix picked up Tyler Johnson to solidify a point guard rotation filled mostly by rookies De'Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo. A combo guard by trade, Johnson largely deferred to Booker in terms of playmaking when the two played together. Ideally, Johnson probably fits better as a third guard who can both back up and play alongside Booker than as a starter. Of the Suns' rookie point guards, Melton looks closer to contributing because of his strong defense, though he'll have to continue working on his jumper after making 31 percent of his 3s.
Lotto luck best hope for Phoenix to find PG of future
Even after the Suns won last year's draft lottery, this year's version looms large. Assuming Phoenix keeps Oubre's $9.6 million cap hold on the books, the Suns will be better off using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception than creating cap space. That makes the draft the best chance of Phoenix finding a long-term solution at point guard.
More than any other team in the lottery, the Suns would probably be OK landing the second pick, which would surely mean a chance at Murray State point guard Ja Morant. Or, as Arizona Sports radio host John Gambadoro suggested Tuesday, Phoenix could look to move up for Morant if a team like the Atlanta Hawks gets the second pick and has no interest in a point guard.
If the Suns are unable to get Morant, they might have no better option than the trade route. In December, new Phoenix GM James Jones suggested on Gambadoro's radio show that trading this year's pick for a veteran might make sense. "We've been deep in the draft," Jones said, "we've drafted a lot of players over the years and our focus has shifted more to development of these players and looking at NBA players that we possibly can add to this team."
The question is who that player might be. A sign-and-trade for a restricted free agent such as Boston's Terry Rozier or Minnesota's Tyus Jones would be tricky, given Phoenix likely would not have the leverage of making an offer those teams wouldn't match. That could leave the Suns looking at older options like the Timberwolves' Jeff Teague if Minnesota decides to commit to the younger Jones instead. So if Phoenix doesn't move up in the lottery, point guard might remain difficult to fill.
Suns can't expect too much too soon
It's worth noting here that heightened and perhaps unrealistic expectations for last year's team worked against Kokoskov. After drafting Ayton and splurging on veteran forward Trevor Ariza in free agency, Phoenix expected to be more competitive after finishing a league-worst 21-61 in 2017-18.
There were reasons to be dubious of that hope. The Suns were even worse in 2017-18 than their record indicated, finishing with the league's worst per-possession ratings on both offense and defense. Lo and behold, Phoenix ended the season with two fewer wins despite moving out of the cellar in both offensive and defensive rating.
The 2019-20 Suns will have the luxury of another year of development from their young talent, and hopefully better health after Booker missed 18 games and Warren 39. Still, in a difficult Western Conference, Phoenix isn't one player away from .500 unless a star point guard somehow comes available. For that matter, it's not clear this talent will ever fit together to win at a high level. That will require Booker and Ayton developing enough to put the role players around them in position to succeed.
Realism hasn't been a strong suit of the Suns under Robert Sarver; the organization repeatedly has pushed chips in prematurely and sacrificed long-term potential. Only if Phoenix can avoid making that mistake again will Williams have a chance for more lasting success.