Next season was supposed to be the coming out party for the Brooklyn Nets. Instead, Brooklyn won 42 games this year, returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 and lost a hard-fought first-round playoff series to the Philadelphia 76ers.
How will Brooklyn build off this surprising season? With two draft picks in the top 31 and the ability to sign two max players in free agency, the Nets could rise even further in the East hierarchy.
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Brooklyn this offseason.
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The cost of D'Angelo Russell
After rebounding from an inconsistent first three seasons to earn an All-Star nod this year, what will the market look like for the Nets point guard in restricted free agency? While Russell has increased his value this season, we've seen the restricted market lead to tricky stalemates.
No matter what, Russell will see a pay increase from his $7 million salary in 2018-19. In fact, in the unlikely scenario that Russell signs the one-year qualifying offer, his salary will bump up $9.5 million in 2019-20.
Russell's future and cost will come down to these questions for the Nets:
1. Who are we bidding against and what is the market for point guards?
While there are certainly options for more teams (like Chicago and Phoenix) to clear room, the summer of 2019 is shaping to see seven franchises -- the Knicks, Lakers, Clippers, Kings, Pacers, Hawks and Mavericks -- with cap space north of $20 million.
The Lakers, Kings, Hawks and Clippers already have young point guards on the roster. That leaves only the Knicks, Pacers and Mavericks as the teams with significant cap space to chase Russell. That should put his annual salary in the $18-20 million range.
2. How do we value analytics vs. the eye test?
If we were relying solely on statistics, Russell could be looking at a salary in the $8-10 million range. Russell ranks No. 18 among all point guards in ESPN's real plus-minus, behind two backups in Monte Morris and Fred VanVleet. He also ranks No. 59 in defensive RPM.
A big reason for his below-average stats is that Russell has been asked to do much of the heavy lifting for most of the season, especially with Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie out.
While the statistics show an inefficient scorer and a player who sometimes loses focus on the defensive end, the eye test shows the growth Russell has taken this season and his clear upside.
Durability: 81 games played this season after playing in only 48 in 2017-18
Age: Turned 23 in February
Team impact: 14 additional wins for Brooklyn this season
Playmaking: No. 11 in assists league-wide (career high 7.0 APG)
Improvement in shooting percentage and overall scoring
3. Can we walk away if an offer sheet is too rich?
Not only do the Nets have Dinwiddie under contract for the next three seasons on a team-friendly contract, but they also have the financial flexibility to replace Russell if his price gets too steep. Brooklyn also has LeVert under contract, and without an extension he'll hit restricted free agency in 2020. Are the Nets comfortable paying $45 million per year for Russell, LeVert and Dinwiddie?
In the unlikely scenario that a max-type offer (four years, $117 million) is presented, Brooklyn will have two choices: walk away, or match the contract with the belief that Russell provides value on the court now and in trades down the line.
The sales pitch in free agency
For three consecutive offseasons, we have seen GM Sean Marks take an aggressive, creative and proactive approach when it has come to cap space.
Instead of signing rotation free agents to long-term contracts or chasing All-Stars with unrealistic odds, Brooklyn became a destination for unwanted contracts and future draft picks. That approach has allowed the Nets to emphasize player development with the hope that the 2018-19 season would be a springboard when it came to free agency. (Of course, Brooklyn caught a break when the restricted free-agent contracts for Otto Porter Jr. and Tyler Johnson were matched, which would have limited financial flexibility).
Now Marks has a foundation in place to sell to free agents such as Kyrie Irving, Tobias Harris or even Kevin Durant -- one that involves competing now and in the future. This playoff team returns the core of its roster, finally has some draft assets, boasts a strong coaching staff and is run by an ownership group with unlimited resources. Plus, the team plays in the New York market.
Looking ahead, the team can continue to add more talent in 2020 through free agency or trades.
Establishing a contingency plan
NBA free agency has taught us to expect the unexpected. For that reason, the Brooklyn front office should be operating from two sets of free-agent lists this summer.
If the Nets miss out on their top list of star targets, the goal would be to stay competitive and retain flexibility. With 2-4 roster spots open, here are Brooklyn's options in such a scenario:
Signing new free agents to one-year contracts and preserve cap space in 2020
Retain own free agents on one-year deals (DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis and Jared Dudley)
Use cap space to take back contracts and draft picks
Keep in mind that trading Allen Crabbe and two first-round picks to Atlanta to clear cap space showed that Brooklyn will be aggressive this summer in free agency. The Nets are not taking a conservative approach.
The extension options of Caris LeVert
The playoff series against Philadelphia showed why LeVert was the best player on the Nets' roster before he suffered a dislocated right ankle in early November. In the five playoff games -- including three coming off the bench -- LeVert averaged a team-high 21.8 PPG while shooting 49.2 percent from the field and 47.8 percent from 3.
Because LeVert is the last of the players who signed rookie contracts under the 2011 CBA, he will have a relatively low free-agent hold ($7.7 million) if he hits 2020 free agency. Brooklyn could be looking at $27 million in room in 2020 if Russell returns at a salary around $20 million and a $32 million max player is added in free agency. Extending LeVert at a salary in the $16-18 million range -- comparable to the extension of the Denver Nuggets' Gary Harris -- would see that space shrink to $16 million. The Nets will have up until Oct. 21 to decide on LeVert.
Newly acquired wing Taurean Prince is in the same position, with a $10.8 million cap hold in 2020.
Summer cap breakdown
The Nets started free agency early with the Allen Crabbe trade to Atlanta. Once the deal is official on July 6, Brooklyn will have $45.6 million in room -- good enough to sign a max free agent (Kyrie Irving), retain D'Angelo Russell and also have $14 million left in room. The Nets could also leave the $7.4 million Rondae Hollis-Jefferson hold and still have enough room for a max player.
To sign a player such as Kevin Durant as well as Irving, Brooklyn would need to renounce Russell and waive the non-guaranteed contracts of Shabazz Napier and Treveon Graham. Brooklyn would have $35.8 million in room, $2.4 million short of a max slot for Durant. The Nets then would need to make a trade or have both players (Irving and Durant) take a slight discount. That is not the case if Irving is paired with a player such as Tobias Harris, since Harris' max contract wouldn't be as expensive.
Expect the Nets to have the $4.7 million room midlevel exception available.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: two draft picks in the top 31
Cap space
Own free agents
Cap exception
Dates to watch
• Brooklyn will extend Russell a $9.2 million qualifying offer by June 30. The one-year offer will give the Nets the ability to match an offer sheet on the restricted free agent.
• Hollis-Jefferson is eligible to receive a $3.5 million qualifying offer. Brooklyn does have the ability to pull the contract by July 13 if the team needs to renounce his $7.4 million cap hold to create cap space.
• The Nets have until June 29 to extend Theo Pinson a $1.6 million qualifying offer. The guard was signed on the last day of the season.
• The July 10 trigger dates in the Shabazz Napier and Treveon Graham contracts give the Nets flexibility to waive both players to create additional room, or retain the two players if $2 million in room is not needed. Although Napier and Graham combine to earn $3.7 million, waiving both would only create $2 million in room because their contracts would be replaced by a $897K roster charge.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• The Nets sent $5 million to Charlotte as part of the Dwight Howard trade and are restricted to receiving $133K before July 1. If Brooklyn buys a second-round pick, the trade will occur after July 1 when the new cap calendar starts and the Nets have $5.6 million available to send out.
• The Nets cannot trade a future first-round pick until 2022 at the earliest.
The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Brooklyn selecting in 2019:
No. 27 (via Denver): Luguentz Dort | G | ASU
No. 31 (via New York): Nic Claxton | C | Georgia
Brooklyn will send Atlanta a 2020 lottery-protected first-rounder. The pick remains lottery protected until 2022 and then converts to second-round picks in 2022 and 2024 if not conveyed.