How do we evaluate this season for the Detroit Pistons? Is strong play with Blake Griffin in the lineup combined with the first playoff appearance since 2015-16 a success, or does a sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks mean disappointment?
Probably a combination of both. With Griffin healthy, the ceiling of the current roster is a 42- to 44-win team and the No. 6 seed. Without him, the Pistons are a lottery team.
The challenge now comes with how this roster can improve. While there is no questioning the impact of Griffin, Detroit returns 11 players facing financial restrictions for real roster improvement.
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Detroit this offseason.
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Tread water until 2021
As a result of the Griffin trade in January 2018 and missed opportunities in the first round of the draft, the Pistons are in a holding pattern with their roster until the summers of 2020 and 2021. Which offseason the Pistons target for bigger moves will depend on if they can turn the $35 million in expiring contracts of Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer and Langston Galloway into immediate contributors, even if that means taking back salary that stretches past the 2019-20 season.
For example, the Charlotte Hornets' Nicolas Batum would give the Pistons the big wing they currently lack. While Detroit could have $23 million in room in 2020, the free-agent class outside of Anthony Davis, Draymond Green and DeMar DeRozan is dominated by restricted free agents. Detroit could follow the example of the Cleveland Cavaliers (Brandon Knight, John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova) and take back players who have two years left on their deals if there is draft compensation attached. In the two separate transactions, the Cavaliers acquired five draft picks just to take back money.
Expect the Pistons to be active when it comes to trades in the offseason, even if it comes at the expense of the summer of 2020.
Building out the bench with financial restrictions
Though the Pistons are not in the luxury tax, the front office once again will be restricted in how it builds out the bench. Expect the Pistons to decline the $4.3 million team option of Glenn Robinson III before free agency begins. The move would leave Detroit $14.5 million below the tax with four available roster spots. That room would shrink to $12.3 million when you factor in two minimum players.
There are two glaring needs for Detroit -- a backup point guard and a starting small forward. What direction the Pistons choose will depend on three factors:
The June 20 draft
The comfort level of not having a veteran insurance policy behind Jackson
The cost of free agent backup guard Ish Smith
When it comes to the draft, Detroit will need to take a big-picture approach. With Jackson entering free agency in 2020 and his backup, Smith, up this summer, can Detroit find an eventual starter for the future and a backup for next season? Unlike the previous two drafts, when a combined nine point guards were selected in the top 14, ESPN is projecting only three players -- Ja Morant, Darius Garland and Coby White -- as PGs in the top 15. The next PG prospect is Carsen Edwards (currently No. 25).
With the Pistons selecting No. 15, the front office will need to weigh best available versus need. Currently, ESPN has the Pistons selecting USC wing Kevin Porter Jr. Porter would fill a need and also could be the best available because of his incredible upside.
Free agency offers the Pistons two choices. They can attempt to sign Smith at a contract between $6 million and $8 million or look into the pool of available players who fit within their budget. The list of free-agent guards includes Darren Collison, T.J. McConnell, Cory Joseph and Rajon Rondo.
The focus on player development
Detroit trading Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson at the deadline was about the long-term vision of the franchise coupled with the Pistons' upcoming roster restrictions. Instead of overpaying the players and entering the luxury tax in 2019-20, Detroit took back controllable contracts in former draft picks Thon Maker and Svi Mykhailiuk.
The two players -- combined with Luke Kennard, Bruce Brown, Khyri Thomas and two more 2019 draft picks -- give the Pistons a foundation of seven players to develop who earn a total of $15.5 million next season and are still under the age of 25.
Summer cap breakdown
The Pistons will head into the offseason faced with the same mandate from previous years: stay below the luxury tax. Currently with $121 million in salary ($11 million below the tax), Detroit does have flexibility reducing payroll if the $4.3 million team option for Robinson is not exercised.
As a result of the payroll, expect Detroit to have just $5.7 million of the midlevel exception available to use.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: first and second round
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Cap exceptions
Dates to watch
The Pistons have until June 29 to exercise the $4.3 million team option for Robinson, who signed a two-year, $8.4 million contract and was thought to be a temporary stopgap at small forward. However, he appeared in only 45 games, averaging 12.6 minutes and 4.0 points. Not exercising the option would give the Pistons tax flexibility when it comes to signing Smith (and using part of their $9.2 million midlevel exception).
Not only did the trade with the Lakers see Detroit acquire a future second-round pick, but they also got Mykhailiuk, a 21-year-old developmental project. Now entering the offseason, expect Detroit to guarantee his $1.5 million contract by July 5.
Restrictions
Despite having an 8 percent trade bonus in his contract, Andre Drummond is capped at earning an additional $156,981.
The low amount is a result of Drummond's $27.09 million 2019-20 salary falling slightly below the maximum allowed for that season.
Extension candidates
Drummond, Jackson, Leuer, Galloway and Maker are all extension eligible.
Maker is an interesting case when it comes to a new contract. Acquired at the deadline, the former lottery pick is still considered a developmental project despite averaging a career high in minutes (19.8) in the 27 games played with the Pistons. Extending Maker at a team-friendly contract in the range of $4 million to $5 million per year would still leave the Pistons with cap flexibility in 2020-21. The free-agent hold for Maker if the Pistons bypass a deal is $10.7 million. Detroit has until Oct. 21 to decide on a new contract.
The draft assets
A year after trading their own first-round pick to the Clippers as part of the Griffin trade, Detroit now enters the June draft with a first- and second-round selection.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Detroit selecting in June:
No. 15 (own): Romeo Langford | F | ESPN
No. 45 (own): Darius Bazley | SF/PF
The Pistons own all of their future first-rounders.