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Next moves for the Wolves: How to build around Towns

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

No team went through as much turmoil as the Minnesota Timberwolves this season.

Coming off a playoff appearance in 2017-18, All-Star Jimmy Butler asked to be traded before training camp even began, and head coach Tom Thibodeau was fired in early January.

Minnesota has a new president of basketball operations in Gersson Rosas and will retain interim head coach Ryan Saunders, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

Let's look ahead to the big free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Minnesota this offseason.

Get more team-by-team NBA offseason guides here


Explore the trade value of Jeff Teague

The phrase "long-term projection" is used commonly within NBA front offices. It's part of a two-fold, daily exercise: Analyze the roster over a three-year window, and identify financial issues.

It is the same exercise that set the wheels in motion for the Utah Jazz to acquire Ricky Rubio from Minnesota before the start of free agency in 2017. Instead of overpaying free agent George Hill or finding a cheap replacement, Utah picked up Rubio on a team-friendly deal.

Now, two things stick out on the Wolves' cap sheet for 2020-21: $108 million in committed salary and Teague's free agency (if he picks up his player option this year). Considering that Teague is unlikely to be brought back, Minnesota would have only the $10 million midlevel exception to replace him at PG. Of course, that could change if the Wolves draft a guard in the lottery (Darius Garland, for example) or retain Tyus Jones and he develops into a full-time starter.


Define a role for Andrew Wiggins

It's Minnesota, so we have to talk Wiggins. The former No. 1 overall pick is trending in the wrong direction. But instead of breaking down why Wiggins' on-court production has not lived up to expectations, the Wolves need to discuss his future role as a starter or bench player this offseason.

Optics suggest that moving Wiggins to the bench would destroy his trade value or maybe his confidence. However, his max contract makes finding a trade partner unrealistic right now anyway. The bloated contracts from the 2016 free-agent class are set to expire after this season. While Wiggins would be an upgrade in some situations, the remaining money left on his deal won't be desirable to teams that finally are about to open up cap space.


Derrick Rose: Priority or luxury?

Back in late October after a win against the Los Angeles Lakers, I scribbled on a notepad: Does Derrick Rose belong in the NBA? That was after a 4-for-16 shooting performance. Two nights later, Rose dropped 50 points. That career high set in motion his most efficient season since he won MVP.

Yes, Rose is eight years older and playing 10 fewer minutes per game, but the guard accomplished a major goal: He's no longer a minimum-contract player heading into free agency. Rose has gone from an August signing to an early-July priority, either to the Timberwolves or a playoff team looking for depth off the bench.

Minnesota can sign Rose to a contract that starts at $5 million (early Bird exception), use most of its $9.2 million midlevel on a free agent and still sign two minimum contracts while staying under the luxury tax.


Under contract in 2019-20

The Timberwolves are one of those in-between teams -- not under the salary cap and not pressed against the luxury tax. Remove all their free-agent holds (except for their first-round pick), and they're left with nine players under contract and $113 million in committed salary.

While the team will have the $9.2 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available, using both and re-signing Jones would push the Wolves into the tax. Barring a roster overhaul, expect the lottery pick to be the big offseason addition.

Resources available to build the roster:

  • The lottery

  • Cash to buy draft picks

  • Cap exceptions (midlevel, biannual)

  • Own free agents


Dates to watch

• The Timberwolves will have until June 30 to extend a $3.5 million qualifying offer for Jones. Jones ranks No. 6 among all backup PGs in ESPN's real plus-minus and is No. 9 among free-agent PGs. Expect him to get the offer.

• Teague has a June 29 date to exercise his $19 million option for next year. Before the start of the season, Teague had missed 24 games in his nine-year career. This season, the guard has sat out 25 games with various injuries. Although the free-agent market for point guards is average at best, it likely would take Teague two years to recoup the $19 million that he'd be leaving on the table. It's likely that he exercises the option, and the Timberwolves make him available in trade talks.

• Cam Reynolds is on a $1.4 million non-guaranteed contract with protections that will increase to $50K if he is not waived by Aug. 1, with an additional $50K added if he is not waived by Oct. 1.


Restrictions

• Towns has a poison-pill restriction in his contract that will expire on June 30. For trade purposes, Towns' $7.8 million salary counts as outgoing salary, and $27.6 million (the average of both contracts) counts as incoming salary.

• Reynolds has a three-month signing restriction and cannot be traded until May 19.


Extension candidates

The Wolves have taken an aggressive approach with rookie extensions, including Towns and Wiggins. Will they take the same approach with Dario Saric?

Here are the factors that Minnesota has to weigh:

  • Was Saric's inconsistent production this season the result of the midseason trade, a lack of familiarity with his role (alternating between starting and coming off the bench) or playing for three coaches in seven months?

  • Should a full season (2019-20) be used as a true evaluation with a new front office?

  • What impact do a below-average free-agent class and cap spike ($118 million) in 2020 have? Saric could go from a $14 million player to $18-20 million if he has a strong season.

  • Is cap flexibility in 2020 a priority? Saric will have a $10.4 million free-agent hold, and Minnesota should plan on finding a PG.

Teague and Gorgui Dieng are also extension-eligible.


The draft assets

After finding value with Josh Okogie at pick No. 20 last year, Minnesota returns to the lottery for help.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Minnesota picking in 2019:

  • No. 11 (own): Brandon Clarke | F | Gonzaga

The Timberwolves have all their future first- and second-round picks (besides this year's second-rounder).