<
>

What Eric Bledsoe's new deal means for the Bucks

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images

A potential Eric Bledsoe extension was one of the big things to watch for the Milwaukee Bucks as the trade deadline approached.

Now, three weeks later, Bledsoe and the Bucks have agreed in principle to a four-year, $70 million extension that locks up one of their core players for the foreseeable future.

Here is why the extension made sense for both sides, the impact on Milwaukee this summer in free agency and how Bledsoe being off the market could have a domino effect on free agency.


Why the extension makes sense

It would be unfair to chalk up the borderline All-Star season Bledsoe is having to him being in a contract year. Yes, the point guard was set to enter free agency for the first time since 2014. And, of course, we can point to his struggles in the 2018 playoffs against the Boston Celtics as a reason why Milwaukee should have used this postseason to seriously evaluate Bledsoe.

But the situation in Milwaukee this season is different. Bledsoe has accepted a role on a winning team -- with a strong coaching philosophy -- that should prioritize stability. With the Phoenix Suns, Bledsoe dealt with a rotating door of head coaches, roster turnover and consistent losing. While his scoring has dropped, Bledsoe has been more efficient and risen from the teens to No. 6 among point guards in ESPN's real-plus minus (RPM).

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has implemented an offensive philosophy that fits not only Bledsoe but the skill set of the roster. At this price, it's worth the league-best Bucks prioritizing chemistry and attempting to keeping this group of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez together.


How this affects Milwaukee in free agency

While the breakdown in per-year salary is still being negotiated, Bledsoe's first-year cap hit in 2019-20 is expected to fall slightly above his $15 million salary this season. This season, Bledsoe ranked No. 15 in salary among all PGs and outside of the top 50 overall.

Here is a breakdown of the finances for Milwaukee this summer, including the projected first year of Bledsoe's deal:

Note: Middleton is projected to opt out of his contract.

Out of that $143 million in total salary, only $70 million is guaranteed. The balance consists of non-guaranteed contracts and free-agent cap holds. But the price in Milwaukee could get steep. The Bucks have only six players on guaranteed contracts next season, with three starters hitting free agency. Their attention will now turn to Middleton and restricted free agent Brogdon.

Coming off an All-Star season, Middleton falls into the second tier of free-agent wings behind Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard. Still, many in the league project that he will command close to a max salary in the $30 million range. That makes this market-friendly Bledsoe extension even more important.

If the price to keep Middleton becomes too expensive and he signs elsewhere, Milwaukee could have $30 million in cap space. That room takes into account the Bucks renouncing all their cap holds except for Brogdon and their 2019 first-round pick, plus waiving all of their non-guaranteed contracts (including George Hill, who has only $1 million guaranteed).

Brogdon has gone a bit under the radar, but he's producing a 50/40/90 season (FG percentage, 3-point percentage, FT percentage) and projects to be one of the top free-agent guards this summer. He is eligible for a four-year, $45 million extension now but could earn a per-year salary in the $14-15 million range. Of course, if the superstar class claims most of the 2019 cap space, Milwaukee might not have many bidders to compete against for Brogdon.

Projecting Middleton at a salary of $30 million and Brogdon at $14 million would leave Milwaukee with 13 players under contract and $123 million in salary, $9 million below the tax after waiving Hill.

The odd man out could be Lopez. Milwaukee has three options to re-sign him:

1. Using non-Bird rights for a contract starting at $4 million.

2. Using the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception.

3. Retaining the cap holds for Middleton and Brogdon, then signing Lopez with a projected $10 million in room. The Bucks could then use Bird rights to exceed the cap and re-sign their other core pieces. If Lopez is signed with room, Milwaukee would still have the $5.7 million midlevel to use.

And that leads us to Giannis. Once he earns All-NBA honors this season, Antetokounmpo will be eligible to sign the biggest contract in NBA history starting in the summer of 2020. The $251.5 million extension would begin in 2021-22 with a first-year salary of $43.6 million.

Retaining this core will only strengthen Milwaukee's recruiting pitch for Giannis in 2020.


The domino effect for other teams

In fewer than three months, we have seen two of 2019's top free agents -- Spencer Dinwiddie and now Bledsoe -- come off the board. What many were describing as an average-at-best group of point guards outside of Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker has now become weaker.

For team looking for a point guard -- such as Indiana, Orlando, New York, Phoenix and possibly Chicago -- the free-agent list consists of these players:

Ja Morant and Darius Garland will be options at the top of the draft, though the point-guard class isn't loaded with depth behind those two.