Big NBA draft questions: Who is the No. 2 pick?

How is the race for the No. 2 pick in the NBA draft shaping up behind Zion Williamson? Who has the most at stake the rest of the season, and which prospects are emerging as sleepers?

ESPN draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz answer the big draft questions heading into March.

Get the latest Top 100 NBA draft rankings here

1. How would you rank the contenders for the No. 2 pick, and what are you watching closely in this race?

JG: RJ Barrett, Ja Morant then Cam Reddish.

Barrett came into the season firmly at No. 1. While fellow Duke freshman Williamson has since claimed that mantle, Barrett has put quite a bit of distance between himself and the rest of the field with a fantastic month of February (23 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists per game, with a 58.5 true shooting percentage). His performances without Williamson are a great reminder of his talent at age 18. Scouts still nitpick his defense and scoring efficiency, but when he's passing and making shots like this, that feels like splitting hairs. To me, he's as strong a candidate for the No. 2 pick as you'll find in almost any draft class (Luka Doncic aside). I think he should go No. 2 regardless of who gets the pick.

I have Morant firmly behind Barrett but ahead of Blue Devils forward Reddish by a pretty comfortable margin. People will be up in arms initially if Morant and Murray State lose to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament and end up in the NIT, but I think NBA teams will get over that eventually, especially as workouts start and scouts complete their background checks.

Reddish has as much at stake in March as anyone in this draft. Which version of him will we get -- the one-dimensional, streaky spot-up shooter or the far more aggressive and versatile player? If he plays well in March, you can perhaps excuse his fairly disappointing ACC regular season to freshman inconsistency and role. Falter, and all the talk about his lack of heart, overrated athleticism and inability to create offense consistently will get louder.

MS: I've settled on the same pecking order, with Barrett in a class of his own. As for Morant vs. Reddish, I've gone back and forth and landed here: Morant has star potential as a team's primary shot-generator at lead guard, and Reddish projects more as a high-level secondary option.

While he's certainly a frustrating player at times with his volatile production, I actually see Reddish as a fairly high-floor prospect given his versatile shooting stroke, fluidity, positional size and sound on-ball defense. Watching Reddish shoot for a few days outside of games, I have little doubt he can become a prolific NBA shot-maker. His finishing struggles and turnover issues are fair criticisms, but every move Reddish makes is an NBA-caliber move, and the fact he can hop into transition 3s so smoothly makes him an ideal fit when surrounded by playmakers, and his ability to pull up from distance with grace gives him potential as a secondary shot-creator.

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Zion slams Jones' alley-oop.

Tre Jones grabs a loose ball and tosses an alley-oop to Zion Williamson, who dunks it with authority.

The top four might seem solidified, but I wouldn't count out Darius Garland to eventually become one of the best players to come out of this draft. Before missing the season with a meniscus injury, Garland showed the type of handle, off-the-dribble shooting and instincts perfectly suited for the NBA. Although not the same caliber of passer, watching Trae Young torch NBA defenses bodes extremely well for Garland, who is somewhat of a top-five sleeper at this point due to his shortened season at Vanderbilt.

2. The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies each owe protected picks in the top 10. Should they do everything they can to keep their selections?

JG: ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Mavs a 14.9 percent chance of keeping their top-five protected pick this season, which will remain top-five protected in 2020 if it's not conveyed. Dallas' pick currently is expected to land at 9.5 on average, as the team is on pace to finish with the 10th-worst record.

Considering where the Mavs are in the rebuilding process, I think it makes a lot of sense for them to do whatever they can to try to increase their chances of keeping their pick. They aren't going to make the playoffs, and there's not that much left to play for at this stage, so why not try to maximize your odds at getting one of these top four prospects? The middle of the lottery now comes with significantly greater odds to rise as well. The Mavs have three games left against Memphis, which could have a huge effect on their odds. This is easy for me to say -- as the players and coaching staff will have their own ideas -- but I'd play Dirk Nowitzki (427th in real plus-minus) 48 minutes per game from here on out.

Memphis is in a similar predicament, and beating the Lakers on Monday showed the Grizzlies aren't going to be total pushovers. The Grizzlies' pick is top-eight protected in 2019, top-six protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. Going into the season, they were pretty open about the fact that their goal was to try to make a run at the playoffs and convey that pick to Boston so they can move forward with their rebuilding process with a blank slate. Now that they have a 36 percent chance at a top-five pick (per BPI), I wonder if their mindset has changed. Since this is a lost season regardless -- and BPI gives them a 91.4 percent chance to keep their pick now -- they might as well maximize their odds of moving up.

While this is more of a tanking question, it's implicit that we're comparing the strength of this draft to 2020, which isn't always easy to assess 16 months out. I'm on the record expressing my concerns given this 2019 high school senior class, which should make up the bulk of the 2020 lottery, but I am softening my stance a bit now that I've seen how talented the international group is -- plus the rumblings we're hearing about a number of elite high school players potentially reclassifying to become eligible for 2020. There are some really talented names in that group.

I came into this year a bit down on the strength of the 2019 draft, but I've come around as the season has moved on and players have risen (including Williamson, Morant, Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver and Texas' Jaxson Hayes). I think it's fairly likely that the same thing happens in 2020.

3. Who will be the third point guard drafted?

MS: The race behind Morant and Garland is fairly open and will depend mostly on what style of guard teams want.

Duke's Tre Jones makes sense as a defender and organizer type (and so does Kentucky's Ashton Hagans). North Carolina's Coby White and St. John's Shamorie Ponds are dynamic bucket-getters. Virginia's Ty Jerome has the best combination of experience, size, shooting and decision-making.

But if Duke makes a deep tournament run, I think Jones ultimately takes the spot. He might not be loaded with upside, but he brings toughness, basketball IQ and pedigree -- all qualities we've seen lead to success for the league's top backup PGs. There's not a better on-ball defender in the country, which he showed by completely taking White out of the game when they matched up.

Jones ranks second in the NCAA in assist-to-turnover ratio (4.06) and is one of only 11 players in our historical database to post a ratio over 4.0 while logging more than 30 MPG. His evaluation is also pretty straightforward, since this is the role he'll be playing in the NBA. He certainly has areas of improvement, including 3-point shooting, shot selection and overall half-court scoring, but he affects winning in a way NBA teams will appreciate.

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Kentucky handles business behind Washington's 18.

Kentucky earns its 12th win in the past 13 games behind PJ Washington's 18-point, eight-rebound performance as the Wildcats handle the Tigers.

4. Who is a surging draft prospect to watch?

JG: Since writing about PJ Washington a few weeks ago, the Kentucky sophomore has only continued his surge, now finding himself at No. 13 in our latest Top 100 rankings. The big revelation lately has been his outside shooting. He made five 3s on Saturday against Auburn, and he has converted 49 percent in SEC play.

"He had gotten in great shape and just is feeling comfortable," Kentucky assistant Joel Justus told ESPN. "But really, his work ethic is at another level."

Washington has also shown a lot more in terms of ballhandling, passing, decision-making and all-around toughness. He outplayed presumptive SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams in their head-to-head matchup two weeks ago, and he has another chance Saturday to take down Tennessee and potentially lock up conference POY honors with another big showing.

Another player who has been very good lately -- though he's likely more a 2020 prospect -- is Vanderbilt's Aaron Nesmith, who has taken off in the past 10 games while averaging 15 points per game and shooting 36 percent from 3.

Nesmith was always going to attract the eyes of NBA scouts with his physical profile, standing 6-foot-6 with an impressive 213-pound frame and a reported 7-foot-plus wingspan. But his productivity in the SEC, clean shooting mechanics, long strides and competitiveness on D have sped up that process. Nesmith still has work to do on his ballhandling and shot creation, but he has a nice framework for a 3-and-D wing prospect. Nesmith is still fairly raw, meaning he'll likely have to wait until 2020 to start building his draft candidacy, but there's a lot to like about his long-term outlook.

MS: Tar Heels forward Cameron Johnson has helped himself in a big way over the past month and could earn looks as high as the late first round. In February (eight games), Johnson is averaging 18.9 points in 31.3 minutes while shooting a remarkable 59.2 percent from 2 and 44.9 percent from 3 (6.1 attempts). The 6-foot-9 Johnson has the exact combination of size, shooting and feel that teams are looking for in a potential role player.

Slow-motion look at one of the best shooters in the country, Cam Johnson. Only 11 players in the NCAA have made over 65 threes at a clip of at least 45%. A lot to like about the 6-9 forward. pic.twitter.com/vnwAa7JyaG

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 21, 2019

Once seen as a one-dimensional shooter who didn't quite make enough, Johnson has been the model of consistency this season, shooting over 45 percent from 3 every month and ranking first in the NCAA in catch-and-shoot jumper efficiency, per Synergy data. He has tremendous shot preparation and is more than comfortable rising into one- or two-dribble pullups when run off his spot. He's a smart cutter, has instinctual attacking closeouts and is opportunistic in transition. Johnson has also toughened up a bit on the defensive end.

Johnson is already 23, plus he's a fairly rigid ball handler, not the most physical finisher or defender, and he lacks a degree of physical upside with his average frame and length. But he's a late bloomer who has a clear-cut NBA skill as a shooter. He should be able to help a team right away.

We'd be remiss not to mention to rise of Kentucky guard Tyler Herro, who is looking more and more like a first-round lock by the game. He's now shooting 51.4 percent from 3 on 4.6 attempts per game in February. It's hard not to be reminded of former Wildcat Devin Booker when Herro rises into his jumper on the move with tremendous balance and elevation.

5. Which struggling prospect needs a strong end to the season?

MS: After a tremendous start to his sophomore campaign, Virginia Tech guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has cooled off considerably, shooting a dreadful 34.8 percent from 2 and 30.6 percent from 3 in eight February games. He looked like a late lottery pick through the first three months of the season, so why the drastic drop in production?

Alexander-Walker has been thrust into more of an on-ball role since Justin Robinson went down with a left foot injury at the end of January. His efficiency has taken a nosedive largely due to his sometimes-methodical pace and lack of burst with the ball. Before Robinson went down, Alexander-Walker found most of his success out of spot-ups and second-side pick-and-roll. He has excellent timing attacking the gaps against an already-shifting defense, using his touch and vision when he gets to the paint. However, now that he's asked to generate offense against a set defense, he's using more pick-and-rolls while scoring only 0.57 points per possession. He has had issues getting past pesky defenders like Tre Jones, and the fact that he's not all that dynamic getting to his pullup (or overly bouncy at the rim) has made matters worse.

Alexander-Walker has still added value -- defense, facilitating-- but it's become clear that he projects more as a secondary ball handler in the NBA. At 6-foot-6 with a 6-9 wingspan and a smooth catch-and-shoot stroke, there's no shame in that. This isn't a reason to abandon him as a prospect. We're just more clear on his best NBA role now. As Robinson returns, scouts will be watching closely to see if Alexander-Walker's efficiency and overall production improves. The ambidextrous guard remains a high-floor prospect with late-lottery potential.

JG: Indiana's Romeo Langford has struggled over the past 10 games (16 PPG, 53 percent true shooting) and he's going to need to close out his college career on a stronger note to cement himself as a midlottery prospect. While his shooting has never been a strength, Langford impressed quite a bit early in the season with his shot creation, body control and ability to get inside the paint and finish out of pick-and-roll and isos. With teams packing the paint in conference play, Langford's effectiveness as a driver has fallen off quite a bit. Part of that is definitely situational, as Indiana is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten at a horrid 27 percent. The Hoosiers have very little in the way of scoring in general outside of Langford.

Langford could do a better job at not settling for so many jumpers, though, as he seems intent on trying to prove he can make shots every time defenses back off. He has proved that he's a much better shooter than he had been given credit for earlier in his career, but he has gotten away from what's made him such an elite prospect, which is his ability to create offense with the ball in his hands. He's a little too casual with his approach at times, not being aggressive enough seeking out contact at the rim and finishing in traffic. His laid-back approach has long been one of the bigger criticisms, something that usually shows up more defensively than offensively.

Even though he's likely a lock lottery prospect and probably a top-10 pick regardless, these past few games will still matter -- especially the Big Ten tournament, where quite a few NBA eyes will be watching.

6. Who is your sleeper pick to rise between now and the draft?

JG: Auburn's Chuma Okeke remains a strong draft sleeper. He has been especially good over the past 10 games (14 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 55 percent from 2 and 48 percent from 3), even though the Tigers have hit a bit of rough patch.

"He is a really good player," Auburn coach Bruce Pearl told reporters a few weeks ago. "He can guard inside. He can guard outside. He can score inside. He can score outside. He has a very high basketball IQ. As he gets older, he'll accept more responsibility to inflict pain on the opponent, because he is that good."

When Okeke is being aggressive offensively and shooting this well, he looks every bit the part of a modern NBA forward who can switch, bang inside the paint and do the little things. It's not always in his nature to look for his own offense, but with Auburn struggling with injuries and off nights from its star players, Okeke has been asked to step up and has shown impressive glimpses of versatility on both ends of the floor. I'm still not sure if that translates to him being a first-round pick in 2019 -- though I would certainly take him that high -- but a few big games in March could definitely get him there.

One other guy who is in somewhat of a similar mold is Colorado's Tyler Bey. He's more of an undersized big, without the 3-point shooting that makes Okeke so attractive, but he's a lot more of a beast of a rebounder and defender.

MS: Belmont's 22-year-old forward Dylan Windler is turning in a remarkably efficient season, averaging 21 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 2.6 APG with a 67.2 true shooting percentage. At 6-foot-8 with a 6-11 wingspan and solid athletic attributes, Windler has nice size for a modern combo forward with a solid all-around skill set. He's a fairly reliable standstill shooter (40.5 percent from 3) who can defend his position and attack the defensive glass. Droves of scouts will be watching the OVC tournament to see both Morant and whether Belmont can advance to the NCAA tournament, where teams will want to see Windler against better competition.

He's still a bit of an enigma -- and really struggled against more stout opponents -- but Windler has second-round intrigue with role-player potential.

Another senior to keep an eye on is Tulsa's DaQuan Jeffries. He has been a bright spot on a struggling team, with some attributes teams look for in a 3-and-D wing. And three younger prospects for scouts to start digging into: Utah State's Neemias Queta, Boise State's Derrick Alston and Dayton's Obadiah Toppin.