The deal
Kings get: Harrison Barnes
Mavericks get: Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Sacramento Kings: C-
For months now, plugged-in reporters have continued to indicate the Kings were in pursuit of a small forward with size to go with their smallish wing duo of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield, both shooting guards by trade. In Barnes, they get their guy and ostensibly an ideal fit with a young core that has exceeded expectations so far this season. Look closer, however, and I'm not sure this deal will prove a difference-maker.
On the surface, Barnes had a productive run of two-plus years with the Mavericks after signing a max deal as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2016. Playing a larger role than he did as part of the Golden State Warriors' first championship team, Barnes averaged about 19 points per game his first two seasons and slipped this season only because his minutes went down slightly. (Barnes is still averaging 19.8 points per 36 minutes, identical to 2017-18.)
Issue one is that Barnes has been more of a volume scorer in Dallas with below-average efficiency. His true shooting percentage has hovered around .540 when league average is .558. This season's improvement to 39 percent 3-point shooting, which could have improved Barnes' efficiency, has been offset by his 2-point percentage tumbling from 48 percent to 42 percent.
I'm not as worried about that in Sacramento, which is getting plenty of shot creation from its backcourt (also including point guard De'Aaron Fox). Inevitably, Barnes' usage rate will go down from the 23.5 percent of Dallas' plays he was finishing with either a shot attempt, trip to the free throw line or turnover this season. After all, the player he's replacing in the Kings' starting five (Iman Shumpert, dealt to the Houston Rockets earlier in the evening) had a 15 percent usage rate in Sacramento. In a smaller role, Barnes should return to something closer to the above-average efficiency he showed as a scorer with the Warriors.
The bigger concern is Barnes just doesn't do much else besides score. He has handed out just 1.4 assists per 36 minutes this season, fifth-lowest among players averaging at least 18 points per 36, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Barnes is also near the bottom of the league in combined steals (0.8) and blocks (0.3) per 36 minutes.
That lack of production is reflected in Dallas' performance with Barnes on and off the court. Though Barnes had a positive net rating in 2016-17, when the Mavericks were 2.2 points per 100 possessions better when he played, according to NBA Advanced Stats, that hasn't been the case the past two seasons. In 2017-18, Dallas was 9.0 points per 100 possessions worse with Barnes on the court. This season, that figure is 7.5 points per 100 possessions worse with Barnes. As a result, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rates Barnes as a below-average contributor.
Don't get me wrong: The Kings likely improved with this trade. Barnes still rates better by single-year RPM than Shumpert, although Shumpert's multi-season rating is slightly better. With the LA Clippers trading starter Tobias Harris to the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, the door is open for Sacramento to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
The issue here is alternative cost. To make this trade, the Kings utilized more than $10 million in remaining cap space this season and will forego $25.1 million this summer, assuming Barnes picks up his player option. If Sacramento was going to use that on a win-now move, and include Jackson, I think they could have done better than Barnes.
If Otto Porter Jr. were available for the same return before being dealt to the Chicago Bulls in a separate move Wednesday -- and on paper, the Kings' offer looks better from the Washington Wizards' perspective -- I would have preferred Porter despite his larger, longer contract. Porter has a longer track record of helping his team play better when he's on the court.
Sacramento found its big wing with the Barnes trade. I'm just not convinced they found the right one.
Dallas Mavericks: A
This season's downtick in Barnes' usage rate was probably only the beginning. Rookie of the Year frontrunner Luka Doncic had replaced Barnes as the Mavericks' primary shot creator this season, and a healthy Kristaps Porzingis also figured to slot ahead of Barnes in the pecking order in 2019-20. As a secondary option, Barnes is both overpaid and limited in his contributions elsewhere, so it made sense for Dallas to move on from him.
The Mavericks are now in the interesting position of replacing the Kings as the only option for any team looking to shed significant salary between now and the NBA draft. Having taken back less salary in both this trade and last week's deal for Porzingis, Dallas is now $13.1 million below the cap. Alternatively, the Mavericks could create a $21.3 million trade exception from this deal by taking Randolph's salary into the trade exception created last week in the Porzingis trade.
Either way, Dallas can use the ability to take on salary to recoup some of the draft picks sent to New York for Porzingis. Already, they got a useful young player in Jackson, who has made progress as an outside shooter in his second season. After hitting just 31 percent of his 3-pointers as a rookie, Jackson is up to nearly league average this season. His ceiling is low but continued development as a shooter could make Jackson a low-cost contributor off the bench.
The big benefit for the Mavericks will come this summer, when they could have somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in cap space if they send their first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks via the Doncic trade and waive forward Ryan Broekhoff, whose salary is non-guaranteed. Dallas isn't realistically a player for the top free agents on the market, but it may be able to set the market on available centers, a group that includes All-Star Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins.
Whatever way the Mavericks end up using the money, odds are it will be on a better player than Barnes. Add that to Jackson and the cap flexibility the rest of this season and this looks like a great trade for Dallas.