What should the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers offer in trades for Anthony Davis? Which surprise teams should make big bids for the All-NBA superstar?
Davis has requested a trade from the New Orleans Pelicans, and New Orleans is aware of a list of teams Davis would remain with long-term that includes the Lakers, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks and LA Clippers, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Our experts share their best AD moves heading into the 2019 NBA trade deadline, featuring multiple first-round picks and young players with star potential. They also explain why the path to a trade is complicated for some of the teams on Davis' list.
Boston Celtics
Celtics get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes, Jaylen Brown, Guerschon Yabusele, Semi Ojeleye
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Kevin Pelton: As you've surely heard by now, the Celtics can't make a deal for Davis before the deadline unless they include Kyrie Irving because both players are signed to designated rookie extensions, and teams are allowed only one such player acquired via trade. So consider this a preview of what Boston might offer this summer. (By then, the Celtics wouldn't need to include Semi Ojeleye to match salaries, though Baynes would need to pick up his player option for this version to work.)
The Celtics should offer Tatum only if they're confident they can re-sign Davis in the summer of 2020. (According to a report by Wojnarowski, Boston isn't on Davis' list of teams.) Though both Tatum and Brown are a lot to surrender in return, Boston would potentially still have a strong starting five of Irving, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Davis and Al Horford, with the ability to re-sign free agents Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier to fill out the bench.
Meanwhile, New Orleans probably isn't getting a better offer for Davis, even if the Celtics are unwilling to include the best of their draft picks. Tatum and Brown would replenish the Pelicans' thin wing rotation and give them a chance to compete now with more upside ahead as they develop.
Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers get: Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Tim Frazier and Darius Miller
Pelicans get: Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jonathon Simmons, Orlando's 2019 first-round pick (top-10 protected*) and the Lakers' unprotected first-round picks in 2023 and 2025
Magic get: Lonzo Ball
*If the first is not conveyed in 2019, Orlando will send a 2020 first-round pick (protected Nos. 1-10). The pick will turn into second-rounders in 2023 and 2025 if not conveyed.
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Bobby Marks: What would it take for New Orleans GM Dell Demps to sign off on a trade with the Lakers?
How about multiple first-round picks and young prospects in Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma? The Pelicans would also receive Jonathon Simmons to shore up their depth at small forward.
Because there would be little value in the Lakers' 2019 and 2021 first-round picks with Davis and LeBron James paired together, New Orleans would receive draft compensation in later years. There is no guarantee that Los Angeles would be a championship team four years from now. The Pelicans would also receive an extra protected first by sending Ball to the Orlando Magic. The three controllable contracts would put the Pelicans' cap ledger in order, giving New Orleans $27 million in room for 2019 and financial flexibility in the future.
The Magic have been in search of a point guard for the future. With limited flexibility this summer to add one in free agency and a draft short on PGs (outside of Ja Morant), acquiring Ball is their best option.
This price to acquire Davis is steep for the Lakers, as it should be. But because there is no sense of urgency for New Orleans to move Davis before the deadline -- and knowing that Boston is waiting to join the Davis sweepstakes this summer -- Los Angeles will need to be aggressive with its offer.
The downside to a Davis deal now is that it would eliminate the Lakers' ability to add a third max player this summer. With Davis on the roster, the Lakers would have $24.8 million in space this summer, $8 million short of a max slot. The most room Los Angeles could create is $30.6 million, and that would take trading every remaining player on the roster except James and Davis.
If there is no deal at the deadline, Los Angeles would have the same package of players and draft picks to offer in the summer, except for Caldwell-Pope.
The Clippers' best potential offer
Editor's note: On Wednesday the LA Clippers agreed to trade Tobias Harris to the Philadelphia 76ers, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Clippers get: Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill, Tim Frazier and Kenrich Williams
Pelicans get: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lou Williams, Marcin Gortat, Montrezl Harrell and a first-round pick (two years after the protected 2019 first-rounder to Boston is conveyed)
*Because of the hard cap for the Clippers, New Orleans would need to waive a player to make this deal work.
Marks: Does LA want to start free agency five months early? For the past year, the Clippers have taken a conservative approach lining up their books, hoping to target a player such as Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant in the summer of 2019. That could change now with LA on Davis' list.
While the Clippers have seven expiring contracts to use in a trade, New Orleans wants players who have value on the court and extend past the 2018-19 season. Despite Tobias Harris' All-Star level play, the Pelicans would need to overpay to keep him this summer.
Williams and Harrell give New Orleans two pieces who can start or come off the bench. Put Gilgeous-Alexander alongside Jrue Holiday and the Pels have their backcourt under contract for at least the next three seasons. For the Clippers, the package of four players is rich but it would give them a franchise player under contract to sell to Leonard or Durant this summer. Though taking back Solomon Hill is not appealing because of his $12.8 million contract for 2019-20 (it also puts them in the luxury tax), the Clippers would still have a max slot available to sign an All-NBA free agent. One downside to the trade is that LA would go into the luxury tax.
Why a Bucks trade is so complicated
Pelton: Though it's exciting to dream of a frontcourt pairing Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo -- the top two players on our rankings of best players under age 25 last season, before Davis's 25th birthday -- even with the Bucks on the list of teams with which Davis would re-sign, a workable trade is difficult to find.
Besides Giannis, Milwaukee's other four starters are all free agents this summer and would hold relatively little appeal for New Orleans given the possibility they walk away. (Malcolm Brogdon, a restricted free agent, is the exception because the Pelicans would be certain of retaining him.) The Bucks' other young talent, including recent first-round picks Donte DiVincenzo, Thon Maker and D.J. Wilson, surely isn't enough to be the basis of a credible offer for Davis -- particularly because Milwaukee is already out two future first-round picks from trades for Eric Bledsoe and George Hill.
The Bucks will certainly retain this year's first-round pick, which only goes to the Phoenix Suns if it falls between No. 4 and No. 16. That means the earliest first-round pick they could send to New Orleans without a swap would be in 2024. Add it up and there's no realistic path to a Milwaukee deal for Davis.
Chicago Bulls
Bulls get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., Robin Lopez and Chicago's unprotected 2019 first-round draft pick
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Kevin Arnovitz: ESPN's Brian Windhorst's best intelligence says Davis has little interest in his hometown as a destination. Yet the Bulls could gamble on their standing as a prominent franchise in a large market, as well as the massive cap space they'll hold this summer to attract superstars to play alongside Davis, to entice him to remain in Chicago. If Davis makes it clear that he has no interest in setting up shop in Chicago long-term, then the Bulls are in position to collect on Boston's best offer in early July or at some point before the 2020 trade deadline.
Although the Bulls' offer might not be as appealing to the Pelicans as whatever Danny Ainge will put together this summer, New Orleans would have one of the NBA's most promising young frontcourts and decent probability of landing a top-five pick (admittedly, the presence of Davis on the Bulls likely would mean they win more games than the Pelicans would like). Lopez can be spun off, be bought out or play out the season on his expiring contract.
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia's 2020 first-round pick
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Jeremias Engelmann: With the NBA flattening the lottery odds starting this season, tanking has become a worse strategy. As such, I'd much rather see New Orleans try to stay competitive and not go into a full rebuild. With Embiid, New Orleans would get back a slightly less effective but also slightly younger version of Davis. The two have almost identical shooting and per-36-minute production numbers, except when it comes to turnovers -- an area in which Embiid struggles.
By flipping Embiid (real plus-minus of plus-4.4) for Davis (plus-6.7), Philadelphia would get only somewhat better, but every tiny edge is important in the struggle for Eastern Conference superiority. Furthermore, this deal has the added benefit of prohibiting the Celtics from dealing for Davis in the summer, which would most certainly present a significant roadblock for the 76ers' NBA Finals aspirations during the majority of Embiid's prime.
Phoenix Suns
Suns get: Anthony Davis
Pelicans get: Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, Troy Daniels, Richaun Holmes and the Bucks' protected 2019 first-round pick
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André Snellings: Ayton is likely the best individual building block the Pelicans could hope to receive in a package for Davis. The reigning No. 1 overall pick is living up to expectations and has the size and skill to develop into a superstar if he continues to improve on defense. Bridges and Jackson are both long, athletic wings with high upside. All three are exciting young players on rookie deals who could be foundation pieces for the future.
With Jrue Holiday under contract long-term, draft assets and the potential of holding on to promising big men Julius Randle, Jahlil Okafor and/or Nikola Mirotic, this trade would let the Pelicans rebuild quickly without having to fall to rock bottom.
For the Suns, Davis would pair with Devin Booker to give them one of the most exciting young two-man foundations in the league. The Suns also have a lot of cap space this offseason, enough to potentially bring in a third star to make a run at contention next season. T.J. Warren and Kelly Oubre are solid young contributors already in place, and the Suns would retain their high lottery pick in this draft as well.
Toronto Raptors
Raptors get: Anthony Davis, Darius Miller, Tim Frazier and Cheick Diallo
Pelicans get: Pascal Siakam, Delon Wright, CJ Miles, Jonas Valanciunas and a 2021 first-round pick (protected Nos. 1-10*)
* If the first is not conveyed, Toronto will send a 2022 first-round pick (protected Nos. 1-10). The pick will turn into 2023 and 2025 second-round picks if not conveyed.
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Marks: Raptors GM Masai Ujiri proved last summer with the Kawhi Leonard trade that he is not afraid to take a chance. With the addition of Davis, the Raptors would be pushing nearly all of their chips in, hoping not only that Leonard commits this summer but also that Davis does the following year. If Leonard walks in the offseason, Toronto still has Davis to use in a trade to replenish the assets lost in both deals. Even on an expiring contract, Davis will have significant trade value.
In the short term, Toronto would be not only the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference but also a team that could challenge the Golden State Warriors for an NBA championship.
Is this package enough to get Toronto a seat at the table when it involves a potential Davis trade? Siakam is on the verge of becoming an All-Star. Although Wright becomes a restricted free agent this summer, he gives New Orleans the option of a partner next to Jrue Holiday or an insurance policy if the point guard is moved in a future deal. Miles and Valanciunas have player options for 2019-20, giving the Pelicans solid contributors if they opt in and more than $41 million to rebuild the roster if they opt out.
New York Knicks
Following the Kristaps Porzingis trade, ESPN's Kevin Pelton explained how New York can still trade for Anthony Davis after signing two max players in July free agency:
Pelton: Could the Knicks trade for Anthony Davis after signing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving? Hypothetically, yes.
New York's path to three superstar players would require signing Durant and Irving first to exhaust the team's cap space, then trading just about everything else to the New Orleans Pelicans to match Davis' $27.1 million salary. The Knicks would have to send back $21.6 million in salary, and that's more than all of their currently guaranteed 2019-20 contracts combined.
Realistically, this year's pick would have to be part of any Davis trade, and New York could use the same strategy as the Cleveland Cavaliers did with Andrew Wiggins in 2014 by signing the pick first and subsequently trading him 30 days later when his salary counts for matching purposes.
If the Knicks got the No. 5 pick (which carries a projected starting salary of $6.3 million), a package of the pick, Damyean Dotson, Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. would just barely be enough to make a legal trade. It's possible an offer like that -- which might also include the future picks New York acquired in the Porzingis deal -- could interest the Pelicans if they don't want to trade Davis to the conference rival Lakers and the Celtics no longer bid as aggressively because of Irving's departure.