Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA topics are real or not.
In this edition: Who is the best player in the Eastern Conference? And will Luka Doncic be the best player from the past three drafts?
Buy or sell: Joel Embiid is the best player in the East
With LeBron James in L.A., the title for East MVP now looks like a three-player race between Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Embiid.
Leonard has completely lived up to the MVP-caliber potential that he showed in his last two healthy seasons with the San Antonio Spurs. He is averaging 26.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG, both of which would be career highs. He backs it up with excellent shooting all over the court, characteristically strong defense and decent playmaking for his teammates. Most importantly, Leonard gives the Raptors the confidence and credibility of having an NBA champion and Finals MVP as their best player, which should pay huge dividends in May and June as they try to challenge for a championship.
Embiid is the leading scorer and rebounder on the 76ers, and his ability to face up and destroy most centers is hugely valuable on offense. Embiid is a walking mismatch, with more size than almost any center in the league, an excellent jump shot, a quick first step and outstanding touch. On defense, he is a great post defender and rim protector with a stated goal to win the Defensive Player of the Year.
Antetokounmpo is currently leading the Bucks in points, rebounds and assists, plus he's a close second in steals and blocks. He is making a Shaq-like 58.2 percent of his shots from the field on heavy volume.
While all three are outstanding, an examination of their weaknesses shows that one of the group is clearly ahead of the others thus far.
Kyle Lowry is the floor general and primary table-setter in Toronto, leading the NBA with 10.0 APG and tracking eighth in the league in offensive real plus-minus (ORPM), ahead of Leonard (19th). Similarly, teammates Pascal Siakam, Danny Green and Jonas Valanciunas help lead the Raptors' team defense.
Embiid trails new teammate Jimmy Butler in ORPM on the season, and last week he complained publicly that the 76ers haven't utilized their big man correctly since Butler's arrival. Embiid feels that he has been used more as a stretch-5 and a floor spacer. His scoring volume (minus-2.6 PPG), efficiency (minus-3.4 FG%, minus-2.2 3P%) and free throw volume (minus-1.5 FTA) are all down following the Butler trade. With the team naturally flowing through the perimeter talents of Butler, Embiid clearly isn't the offensive anchor for the 76ers. And on defense, Embiid is far behind former teammate Robert Covington and also trails slightly behind Ben Simmons in defensive RPM. He's strong on that end of the court, but this season he has not been dominant.
Antetokounmpo's weakness is his utter lack of perimeter shooting, but his individual talent and the offensive scheme of new Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer make up for it. The Bucks lead the NBA with 14.1 made 3s per game, which has a chicken-and-egg effect with Antetkounmpo. Antetokounmpo's drives have him leading the NBA -- by a lot -- in made dunks, and that pull the defense into the lane, which allows his teammates to bomb away from deep ... which in turn opens up the paint for more dunks. In addition, the Bucks are able to play a stretch-5 like Brook Lopez precisely because Antetokounmpo is able to anchor their top-5 defense while also vacuuming the glass.
Antetokounmpo leads this group in the box score-based player efficiency rating (PER), suggesting that he's producing the best mix of volume and efficiency of the group. Antetokounmpo is also carrying a heavier load at both ends of the court than either Leonard or Embiid, which is reflected in Antetokounmpo's overall RPM, which is the highest among the group. The Bucks are the only team in the NBA ranking in the top six in offensive and defensive rating, and Antetokounmpo is the driving force behind both units.
While Embiid has the game to one day win MVP and DPOY, I sell on this because Antetokounmpo is clearly the best player in the conference, and Leonard also may have a more compelling MVP case.
Buy or sell: Luka Doncic will be the best player from the past three drafts
While I currently have Deandre Ayton ahead of Doncic for Rookie of the Year, I have to acknowledge that I seem to be in the minority. And even though winning ROY is a great accomplishment, it doesn't always track with having the best career from a given draft class. So given his age and skill set, how does Doncic compare to the top players from the past three drafts?
There are certain skill sets in the NBA that historically have led to maximum on-court impact. One of those is a high degree of offensive creation relative to position, with players mixing high-volume, efficient scoring and strong passing. Another offensive skill that translates faithfully to impact is shooting, particularly in frontcourt players, as they are able to space the floor and pull defenders out of position. The third major hidden impact driver is outstanding team defense, often epitomized by a center acting as a defensive anchor.
Doncic has already shown enough to suggest that he will develop into a master in the first two of those three categories, as he has power forward size and guard skills. Doncic has the court vision and passing ability to play point guard, he's shooting 36.4 percent from behind the arc on almost six attempts per game already, and at only 19 years old he projects to have 20-point, 10-rebound, 5-assist upside -- while knocking down three 3s per game -- as he approaches his prime. Not only would that particular collection of stats be unique in NBA history, but it also helps quantify just how much of a matchup nightmare he would be for opposing teams.
There are several strong prospects from the past few NBA classes, including Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, De'Aaron Fox, Lonzo Ball, Doncic, Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr., to name a few. But of the group, only Simmons (team offense creation and defense), Mitchell (team offense creation and shooting) and Ball (team offense creation and defense) currently project to be impact players in two of those key categories in their primes the way Doncic does.
Within that elite group, Doncic has much better size for his position than Mitchell, and his upside as a shooter/scorer/distributor gives him a much higher offensive ceiling than Ball. Simmons is a wild card, because his extreme size as a pure point guard guarantees that he will be a monstrous physical mismatch that -- should he develop any sort of jumper -- would raise his ceiling to all-time levels. However, given the state of Simmons' jump shot to date, right now it seems more likely that Doncic reaches his ceiling than Simmons reaches his. Simmons' theoretical ceiling is higher, but at the moment I buy that Doncic will be the best player of the past three draft classes based on what he has shown thus far.