The deal
Wizards get: Forward Trevor Ariza
Suns get: Guard Austin Rivers, forward Kelly Oubre Jr.
Get more trade grades for every deadline deal here
Washington Wizards: D+
Fairly or not, the Wizards ended up the losers of Friday night's Abbott-and-Costello-style confusion over which Brooks the Suns were getting in the version of this deal previously reported that included the Memphis Grizzlies. That three-team trade would have brought Washington not only Ariza, but also a 2020 second-round pick from Memphis. (The Wizards also were to get a conditional 2019 second-rounder, but according to a league source, the conditions would have made it unlikely that Washington would have received the pick.)
Now, the Wizards have dealt their most valuable trade chip outside their core (Oubre, whom I recently ranked second on the roster in trade value behind All-Star Bradley Beal) without getting any picks in return.
As Washington seeks to salvage a season slipping further away after four consecutive losses over the past week, Ariza is an upgrade over Oubre. He's a superior 3-point shooter (36 percent this season, 35 percent career as compared to Oubre's 31 and 32 percent marks, respectively) who made a career-high 41 percent of his triples in 2013-14, the last of the two seasons he previously played for the Wizards. It's tempting to attribute that to the ability of Washington point guard John Wall to find open teammates in the corner, but according to Second Spectrum tracking, the quality of Ariza's 3-point attempts wasn't dramatically different in 2013-14 from other seasons:
According to quantified shot quality (qSQ), Second Spectrum's measure, an average shooter would have shot an effective 56.6 percent on Ariza's 2013-14 3-point attempts based on their distance, type and the location of nearby defenders. He actually exceeded that, posting a 62.2 percent effective field goal percentage (eFG, which treats 3s as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value). At no point in the past five seasons has Ariza made 3s at even a league-average rate given the quality of attempts he has gotten, so 2013-14 was almost certainly a fluke performance.
Ariza should also help the Wizards defensively, particularly in small lineups in which he teams at forward with Otto Porter. Ariza has more length and is a slightly better defensive rebounder than Oubre, which means Scott Brooks won't sacrifice quite as much of those attributes to go small.
Lastly, Ariza gives Washington an adult in the room with his 15 years of NBA experience, surely a consideration for a team whose locker room has seemed so fractured. The question is whether that's worth forgoing any pick compensation for Oubre, and I'd say no. This Wizards team might already be beyond repair, and as to the value of Ariza's veteran presence on the court and in the locker room, that doesn't seem to have done much for Phoenix.
This version of the trade feels much more like a desperation move for a floundering team with a president (Ernie Grunfeld) whose job might or might not be in jeopardy. That might yet work given how much better Washington's talent level is than the results this season would suggest. But it's more likely a waste of Oubre's trade value on a season that is already doomed.
Phoenix Suns: B-
According to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski when it first became clear the Suns were looking to move Ariza as soon as he became eligible to be traded on Saturday, Phoenix's goals were to get a playmaking guard and a draft asset in return. While this specific deal probably leaves the Suns 0-for-2, it sets them up to make a second trade down the road that could better serve their needs.
In terms of trade value, Oubre is surely more valuable than any of the players Phoenix was reportedly set to get from the Grizzlies in the three-team deal -- either Dillon or MarShon Brooks, as well as Wayne Selden. At minimum, we know Memphis is willing to give up MarShon Brooks (we'll use full names here to keep everything straight), Selden and a 2020 second-round pick for Oubre, and the Suns would be better off just making that trade now and pocketing the second-round pick instead of sending it along to the Wizards. It's possible other teams will be willing to offer more than that for Oubre.
Of course, Phoenix could just keep Oubre, but like Ariza, he plays a wing position at which the Suns are flush with young talent -- franchise building block Devin Booker, high-scoring T.J. Warren (who has also played extended minutes at power forward), 2017 lottery pick Josh Jackson and 2018 first-round pick Mikal Bridges.
Given what's likely to be a robust market for Oubre as a restricted free agent next summer, Phoenix would probably be wise to move Oubre before the February trade deadline. (The NBA's collective bargaining agreement does prevent the Suns from packaging Oubre with another player by then, because he was so recently acquired, but they can trade him by himself immediately.)
It's unclear whether Phoenix sees Rivers as a possible playmaking guard or if they are merely matching salary in this trade -- necessary to keep Washington from increasing its luxury-tax bill by adding Ariza. Rivers has always been miscast as a lead ball handler, a role he rarely played with the Wizards. His 4.0 assists per 100 possessions this season are his lowest mark since 2015-16 and actually fewer than the 4.8 assists per 100 Ariza handed out with the Suns. Overall, Rivers produced at a sub-replacement level in Washington and doesn't really have a role on a rebuilding team.
Because of Ariza's large salary ($15 million), Phoenix was never likely to recoup huge trade value for him before the deadline. Exchanging him for the cheaper Oubre (making $3.2 million in the final season of his rookie contract) gives the Suns more options and might eventually yield a better return.
We should discuss the Grizzlies opting out of the final incarnation of this trade. Memphis getting Oubre for MarShon Brooks, Selden and a pick would have been a strong value play. Sending Dillon Brooks instead of MarShon Brooks makes things more even, but it's a deal I would have made (and would make, presuming it's still on the table).
Because Dillon Brooks played competently as a rookie starter (his 74 starts last season were third among rookies behind Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum, per Basketball-Reference.com), I think his value has been somewhat overstated.
Despite shooting about the league average from 3, Dillon Brooks posted a below-average .531 true shooting percentage in a smaller-than-average role in the Grizzlies' offense (18.5 percent usage rate). As a result, his box score production rated worse than replacement level by both my wins above player metric and Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus. Dillon Brooks rated somewhat better by ESPN's real plus-minus, which rated him between replacement level and league average, but I think this year's reserve role was more appropriate and a better indication of his long-term value in the league.
ESPN's Bobby Marks contributed to this piece.