Before the solo 11-0 run, before the rumblings of jaw-dropping pickup games in Dallas, and even before the draft hype peaked and turned into doubt, Goran Dragic was comparing Luka Doncic to James Harden.
"[Doncic has] a great instinct to be a point guard, but there's the quickness factor," Dragic told ESPN at the 2017 EuroBasket. "I think position 2, he can play that. Like Harden."
Dragic's reasons for the comp between his then-18-year-old Slovenian teammate and the upcoming NBA MVP: a unique form of athleticism combined with positional size, skill and craft.
"Maybe because of his size he looks slow, but [Doncic] is not slow," Dragic said. "OK, he's not super quick, but he has that first step that if he gets the angle on you, it's really tough to defend him. He really uses his body well."
And 14 months later, Dragic is beginning to look prophetic. Doncic has thrived in a more open NBA. He has looked Harden-esque with his highlights, torching opponents with the same step-back move that left EuroLeague defenders wobbly a season ago.
After lingering questions about his traditional athleticism heading into the draft, how exactly has Doncic been able to turn so many initial naysayers into die-hard fans? And can he evolve to eventually become an NBA MVP like Harden did?
The art of the step-back
After chewing on the Harden comparison, I reached out to P3 Applied Sports Science (founded by Harvard-trained physician Marcus Elliott and now one of the premier applied sports labs in the country). How did Harden and Doncic compare in their internal athletic tests? Is this simply two big-bodied guard prospects with lethal step-backs, or is there more to it?
Doncic and Harden share a rare quality that isn't always considered when discussing more traditional athletic benchmarks: deceleration.
P3, which tested Harden in 2016 and has had Doncic in multiple times, found similar results in their ability to slam on the brakes in a hurry. According to P3's massive database of basketball players, Harden ranks in the 99th percentile for eccentric force production and eccentric rate of force development -- metrics suggestive of elite deceleration.
Harden's strength and conditioning coach, Paul Fabritz, quickly picked up on this superpower when he started working with the guard four years ago.
"That was the first thing that jumped off the charts," said Fabritz, who runs PJF Performance out of Anaheim, California. "He was better than anybody I had ever seen as far as putting on the brakes."
Although his closest physical comps per P3 (considering biomechanical force plus traditional metrics such as height, weight and wingspan) are Joe Johnson, Khris Middleton and Eric Gordon, Doncic has Harden-like gifts. It's his ability to come to a screeching halt and shuffle his feet beyond the 3-point line while maintaining balance that has helped him mirror Harden's prolific pull-up shotmaking. Doncic ranks in the 92nd and 93rd percentiles in eccentric force production and eccentric rate of force development, according to P3.
"For them to both really stand out in those eccentric numbers that closely, it's pretty cool," P3 director of operations Adam Hewitt said. "Then you see how they play. It's not the whole story, right, but it's definitely interesting."
There's a bit more nuance to Doncic's ability to stop and go. He ranks in the 85th percentile in hip abduction angle going right to left.
This is called the one-off skater test, where the athlete drives laterally as far out as possible from the force plate in each direction:
Look familiar? It's the exact athletic movement Doncic so often uses to drop defenders before getting into that patented step-back to his left. Doncic, sporting thick legs and a sturdy frame, covers an incredible amount of ground using these hip abduction angles. It allows him to create just enough daylight from even the longest of NBA athletes.
Although Doncic was deemed traditionally unathletic by many throughout the pre-draft process, it's important to remember his strong EuroLeague competition and significant playing time between EuroBasket, EuroLeague and ACB (essentially a full NBA season). According to P3, even Doncic's biggest perceived weaknesses -- vertical and lateral acceleration -- were overblown and rank around league average.
As we learn more about the key athletic components that correlate to basketball success, it's important to take a more nuanced approach in evaluation.
"If you looked at [Harden's] pure combine tests, he's not athletic," Fabritz said. "But you've got to expand your definition of athleticism. Athleticism is any athletic trait that helps you to succeed in the sport. So that's deceleration, that's balance, that's how am I balanced out of different situations. Can I spin and get balanced?"
"In general, basketball operates with a pretty narrow definition of athleticism," added P3 director of biomechanics Eric Leidersdorf. "Athletes like Harden and Luka have started to help us expand the conversation about what additional attributes athleticism can, or should, account for."
What athletic testing can't measure
Fabritz likes to use the term "perceptual ability" when describing another advantage that goes beyond athletic testing. Generally a product of consistently playing against older or tougher competition at a young age, perceptual ability is teaching the brain what players are going to do in certain situations and how to counter. More simply: The game slows down for players like Harden and Doncic.
"If you see more frames per second you can technically move a little slower but you're going to get there faster," Fabritz said. "I would say that's the biggest similarity outside of the other qualities ... their ability to see into the future."
This shows up in Doncic's elite instincts -- a result of practicing with grown men since age 15. Not blessed with traditional jets, Doncic spent his youth having to find ways to get his offense against bigger and stronger players, which allowed him to develop this bag of tricks.
When there's an athletic wing on his hip, Doncic knows to hit the brakes, slow down and hang for a runner as the defender flies by. If he's caught in traffic against a longer athlete, he unleashes playground-style ball fakes to give himself just the slightest crease.
Like Harden, he's savvy putting defenders in jail in a pick-and-roll, keeping his man on his back and slowing his pace before making his next move:
"He does a great job of getting to people's bodies," Mavericks assistant coach Jamahl Mosley said. "He can hold them off. That's his progression -- OK, I don't have the step-back, now what do I do to get to the body?"
Doncic's comfort level in late-clock situations is also a learned behavior. He's one of only 11 players putting up more than two shots per game with less than four seconds on the shot clock, ranking second in effective field goal percentage behind Chris Paul. This is not a coincidence, as Doncic used a whopping 197 late-clock possessions with Real Madrid in 74 games last season, far more than any other player in a legitimate league.
"I think because of his size -- you can say foot speed all you want, but at the end of the day he's learned and known how to create space because he's played against bigger players his whole life, and so he's had to figure out how to get the shot off," Mosley said. "That's why I think he loves the step-back, because it creates so much distance. Him being 6-8, 6-9, you're now creating so much distance, it doesn't matter who [is guarding you].
"I think that's one. Two, I think he wants that moment to get the shot. So he's finding a way to do whatever it takes to get that shot. ... You've seen him in the big moments. He loves the moment. He loves to play."
Can Doncic create MVP-level offense?
Harden's ability to put pressure on the rim at will is where this comparison loses steam. The Beard has long been one of the best isolation players in the NBA. It's not just Harden's step-back that's lethal, it's his ability to lull defenders to sleep before exploding to the rim when they least expect it -- and then rack up free throws at an astounding rate.
You've seen the setup: through the legs, crossover, through the legs, crossover. Harden sizes up his defender and the moment he catches him leaning, his ultra-relaxed muscles fire instantly and he has a step to the rim. Both Fabritz and P3 praised Harden's rare ability to relax-and-contract on demand.
"He knows how to draw fouls, but I think the most important thing is his stability," Fabritz said. "You cannot move him. We do drills, it's called perturbations, where you kind of just knock him around. It's so hard to move him, even when he's standing on one foot."
Doncic doesn't have quite the same zip or stability as Harden. He's not going to get consistent paint touches against a set defense yet, and he has taken more outside-the-paint 2-point jumpers than shots at the rim, per Second Spectrum data.
Harden often torches switch defenders by attacking the big's top foot:
Doncic is less capable of getting a piece of the paint on demand. When defenders start sitting on Doncic's step-back or jamming him off his spots, he has had his struggles. Because his live-dribble burst is average, he tends to dance with the ball on the perimeter, sometimes to the chagrin of his teammates and coaches.
Here he uses 23 dribbles before firing a 1-foot fallaway:
The grind of the 82-game season often gets to rookies, especially if they struggle to keep up with a healthy routine and lifestyle. Though Doncic has dazzled with his shotmaking, he's in somewhat of a slump inside the arc, shooting just 35.1 percent from 2-point range over his past 10 games.
Improvement here begins with his diet and conditioning. Like Harden, Doncic started his NBA career in less than pristine physical shape. Harden logged 10.1 percent body fat at the 2009 NBA draft combine, and it wasn't until recent work with Fabritz that Harden -- previously known for a lackluster diet that led to his thickening up every summer -- really started honing in on his diet.
Although Doncic has played himself into slightly better shape, he still appears to be operating at about 10 pounds over his ideal weight. If Doncic can really stay dedicated to his diet, lean up and add more muscle, his ability to decelerate and change direction can be that much more of a weapon. Hewitt estimates Doncic can increase his acceleration by 10 to 15 percent with a strong offseason.
"Here's a kid that hasn't had exposure to consistent physical development ever," Hewitt said. "He's gotta go do it. He can't just do it a week here, a week there. If he really commits to it, I think he can get remarkably better."
Fabritz never worked with or assessed Doncic, but he noticed another area for growth on film: shin angles. It sounds like a foreign concept, but according to Fabritz most of the NBA's shiftiest players are able to get one shin basically parallel to the ground on dribble moves:
"When I first started watching his overseas clips, that's what I noticed," Fabritz said. "He had very vertical shin angles. I think he'll get better with that over time. LeBron [James], he produces a ton of force; that's why he moves fast. James [Harden] doesn't produce as much force, but he produces it in the right angles. I think that's something Luka will have to learn to get that next first-step explosiveness."
Doncic may never have Harden's burst, but he can still elevate his isolation attack by adding more counter moves to his lethal step-back. As we saw with Doncic's 15 free throw attempts against the Hawks on Wednesday, he's already starting to use his craft to generate better offense.
"Right now it's helping him understand and develop, 'OK, that's now your setup because everyone knows you're going to the step-back. Now it might be, step-back, hold the dribble, cross,'" Mosley said. "We've gotta get to working on that next piece of it. Developing that part of the game. I think he just has to see it and recognize."
What all this means
So how good can Doncic become?
The latest version of predictive real plus-minus (RPM) -- which projects on-court impact, courtesy of ESPN's Jeremias Engelmann -- slots Doncic at No. 63, rare territory for a rookie. Not only is he putting up unprecedented numbers for his age, but he's the best player on a Mavs team that's in the Western Conference playoff hunt. The fact that he has been this productive and clutch with sub-optimal conditioning is nothing short of remarkable
And even though Doncic's game resembles Harden's offensive dominance, remember we're comparing a 19-year-old rookie to a 29-year-old MVP. When Harden was Doncic's age, he was just about to participate in the pre-draft combine.
The exciting thing about Doncic is that there's so much more to his game that we haven't fully witnessed. Consider that:
• We've hardly seen the best of Doncic's passing, arguably his best skill entering the NBA. He has been a bit trigger-happy on step-backs 3s and is still learning how to blend shotmaking with his tremendous vision. As defenses key in on his scoring attack, Doncic should start shifting his focus more toward dimes, boosting his impact considerably.
• Due to natural size and instincts, he can -- at least -- become a neutral defensive player with some versatility on that end of the floor. Doncic currently ranks 288th in defensive RPM and needs to do a better job with positioning, closeouts and box outs, but we've seen nice flashes. While Harden's defensive memes are becoming less prevalent, he has yet to consistently prove he's not a playoff liability. If Doncic is able to progress physically, he shouldn't share the same dramatic concerns.
• Doncic has barely unlocked an off-ball game, attempting just 38 catch-and-shoot jumpers compared to 110 pullups. So used to having the ball in his hands, Doncic stands around a bit too often and doesn't have the best shot-preparation in spot-up situations. Improvement here -- especially when paired with another dynamic ball handler -- would unleash a truly scary attack.
Add those factors to his budding post game and Doncic looks the part of an eventual perennial All-Star who not only puts up stats but also impacts winning. He has everything in place to one day be Harden's caliber of player in the NBA if he can get himself into tip-top shape.
"Honestly for him, a guy like that, his ceiling is pretty much as high as he wants it to be," Mosley said.