For the Charlotte Hornets and Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday's overtime affair in North Carolina was a microcosm of the first month of their respective seasons.
The Hornets have the Eastern Conference's third-best point differential at 4.6 points per game, trailing the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors. Meanwhile, the Sixers have outscored their opponents by a paltry 0.1 points per game, good for sixth in the East. Yet after Philadelphia beat Charlotte 122-119 in overtime, it's the 76ers whose 11-7 start has them fourth in the conference standings. The loss dropped the Hornets below .500 at 7-8, putting them eighth in the East.
What has gone right for Philadelphia in close games to allow the Sixers to outperform their point differential? Conversely, why has Charlotte struggled in those situations? And most crucially, should we expect that to continue? Let's take a look.
Hornets' offense continues to sputter down stretch
For Charlotte, losing close games is nothing new. Per ESPN Stats & Information data, the Hornets are now 2-19 since the start of the 2016-17 season in games decided by three points or fewer. They lost all nine such games in 2016-17, went 1-5 last season and have started this season 1-5 -- two more losses than any other NBA team has by three points or fewer this season. Three of those close losses now have come against the 76ers this season alone!
Performance in close games has helped doom Charlotte to the lottery over the past two years. During both seasons, Charlotte outscored its opposition, which naturally and typically translates into an above-.500 finish. The Hornets had a better point differential than one playoff team (the Bucks) last season and an incredible three (the Bucks, Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers) in 2016-17.
While this hasn't always been the case, Charlotte has struggled to score in late-game situations during the past two seasons. The Hornets' offensive rating in what NBA Advanced Stats defines as "clutch" -- the last five minutes of games when the score is within five points -- has been 24th in both 2017-18 and 2018-19, a huge drop from an offense that has ranked in the top 10 overall the past two seasons (ninth in 2017-18), including seventh so far this season.
Last season, the Hornets appeared to rely too heavily down the stretch on All-Star point guard Kemba Walker. Walker's 39.0 percent usage in clutch situations ranked ninth in the league, but his true shooting percentage in the clutch (.503) declined dramatically from his overall .572 mark.
This season, it is less clear that's the case. Walker is playing an even bigger role -- his 46.5 percent usage is highest of anyone who has played more than 15 clutch minutes -- but his .558 true shooting percentage remains better than the overall league average (.556). Charlotte will certainly take that performance from Walker, who had 19 points on 6-of-7 shooting in the fourth quarter Saturday night en route to a total of 60, the most in the NBA this season.
Instead, the problem this season is that other Hornets players have shot just 30 percent (12-of-40) in clutch situations, including a dismal 2-of-20 (10 percent) on 3-point attempts. Other Charlotte players had just five points in the fourth quarter on Saturday, so when Philadelphia was finally able to hold Walker in check in overtime (he scored two points on 1-of-5 shooting, with one of those attempts a desperation 3 at the buzzer), there was nobody there to pick up the scoring slack.
With major roster changes unlikely, the Hornets' best hope of finding a late-game complement for Walker is probably from within. Second-year guard Malik Monk is Charlotte's second-leading scorer in clutch situations (with eight points to Walker's 49 on Saturday), and Monk's development could take some of the load off Walker's shoulders.
Sixers hanging on in close games
When Jimmy Butler knocked down a pull-up 3-pointer with 0.3 seconds left in a tie game to give Philadelphia the win at Charlotte, it was the 76ers' fourth victory this season by three points or fewer -- tied with the Detroit Pistons for the most in the NBA. Yet, Philadelphia hasn't exactly dominated down the stretch. Instead, as was the case Saturday, the Sixers have tended to survive blown leads.
Philadelphia seemed to have victory well in hand with 3:51 left, leading 103-93. But the 76ers gave up 19 points on Charlotte's last 10 possessions of regulation, forcing just one missed shot in that span. Philadelphia has been outscored by 11.4 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. Nonetheless, the Sixers have done just enough to go 8-3 in those games, essentially the entire reason Philadelphia is above-.500. (The 76ers have gone 3-4 in games that haven't been within five in the final five minutes.)
So far, Butler looks like both a cause of and solution to Philadelphia's late-game issues. The notion that the Sixers struggle to score in clutch situations is something of a misunderstanding. While Philly was famously last in fourth-quarter offensive rating in 2017-18, that was more a product of rotations that put weaker lineups on the court early in the period than spacing issues down the stretch. In the clutch, Philadelphia's offense was second best in the league on a per-possession basis, and the 76ers shot the league's very best effective field-goal percentage.
Adding Butler to the mix complicates things because putting the ball in his hands means finding a new role for Ben Simmons late in the game, when his non-shooting tendencies do cramp things for Philadelphia's offense. Before Butler's game winner in Charlotte, the Sixers turned the ball over on their previous two possessions.
But Butler's shot-making gives Philadelphia a new dimension. He can make clutch plays on the other end too: Butler blocked Walker's shot on the possession before, preserving a tie score. That's why the 76ers were willing to give up two starters to get him.
Close-game results likely to even out
While it might be a cold comfort for Hornets fans at this point, odds are the team's struggles in close games won't continue. Yes, we're on year three of this, but in 2015-16, Charlotte went 6-5 in games decided by three points or fewer with a relatively similar cast of players. The difference between 2015-16 and 2016-17 is typical of the randomness of teams' performance in close games, above and beyond what we'd expect based on their overall ability.
The good news for the Hornets is that they're still in the playoff mix despite their 1-5 start in games decided by three points or fewer because they've gone 6-3 in their other nine games. So if Charlotte gets even a few better bounces the rest of the season, the Hornets should get back to .500 and the postseason.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has used close wins to overcome a shaky start. The Sixers outscored opponents by 4.5 points per game last season, the East's second-best margin. With Butler, Philadelphia has more high-end talent, if less depth. So the 76ers should be able to overcome some more close losses by getting more lopsided wins.