After less than four weeks, teammates and members of the coaching staff believe Carmelo Anthony has played his final game for the Houston Rockets, according to a report by ESPN's Tim MacMahon.
How did Melo's time in Houston sour so quickly? And will shedding Anthony help the slumping Rockets, who have started 5-7 after winning 65 games and reaching last season's Western Conference finals, get back on track? Let's take a look at what went wrong and what's next for Houston.
Rockets struggled to defend with Melo
As MacMahon has pointed out, Houston's defensive slippage this season can be traced directly to the minutes Anthony has spent on the court. With him on the bench, the Rockets have allowed 104.5 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass' tracking -- slightly fewer than the 105.8 they allowed last season, which ranked sixth in the league. With Melo, Houston's defensive rating has ballooned to 114.1 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 27th.
Naturally, over such a small sample this can't be attributed solely to Anthony. The Rockets have been even worse defensively (122.5 points per 100 possessions) with Michael Carter-Williams on the court, for example, and they teamed up for about a quarter of Melo's minutes.
Surprisingly, Second Spectrum tracking suggests Anthony's ability to switch in Houston's preferred defensive scheme hasn't really been an issue. The Rockets have allowed more points per chance on switches with Melo on the bench (1.0 points per chance) than on the court (0.93), and that figure drops all the way to 0.87 points per chance when Anthony was defending the screener -- better than highly regarded switch defender P.J. Tucker (1.04 points per chance).
In all likelihood, the samples are too small (Anthony switched while defending the screener 78 times) to draw any meaningful conclusions, but Anthony getting roasted on switches wasn't the reason Houston struggled defensively during his minutes. Instead, the Rockets fouled more frequently, forced fewer turnovers and were less effective on the defensive glass.
No early sign of "Olympic Melo"
Some defensive drop-off with Anthony was to be expected. Unfortunately, Houston didn't benefit from his presence at the other end, scoring only marginally better with Anthony on the court (102.7 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass) than on the bench (101.9) -- a huge change from Melo's long track record of making his team's offense far more efficient.
Alongside James Harden and Chris Paul, Anthony was playing a smaller role in the Rockets' offense than ever before, finishing a career-low 20.4 percent of the team's plays while on the court -- down from 23.2 percent during his lone season with the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, the long-anticipated return of the efficient "Olympic Melo" failed to materialize over his short time in Houston, as Anthony saw his 3-point percentage drop from 35.7 percent last season to 32.8 percent so far this season.
Doing little to juice the offense, and already a liability on defense, Melo surely was set to lose his rotation spot with Eric Gordon's return to the lineup on Saturday. With fewer minutes to go around, Mike D'Antoni apparently chose undrafted Gary Clark over Anthony because of Clark's superior defensive versatility. A post player at Cincinnati, Clark has adapted nicely to defending wings, making him ideal in a switching defense. The Rockets have a plus-1.1 net rating with Clark on the court, best of any Houston player who hss seen at least 100 minutes of action, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
While it's possible Anthony could have helped in the case of further injuries to the Rockets' three high-scoring guards, the team ran the risk of him moping on the bench. So it appears Houston will quickly move on from the Melo era.
Rockets still need to find more offense
Waiving Anthony won't solve Houston's offensive issues. Far from it. As noted, the Rockets were scoring slightly more efficiently with Melo on the bench, and their 107.4 offensive rating in splitting two games this weekend without him was right at league average -- a huge drop-off from an offense that was neck and neck with the Golden State Warriors for the league lead in efficiency a season ago. However, playing better defense could help Houston stay afloat while hoping Chris Paul can get back on track after a poor shooting start as he battles tendinitis in his right elbow.
The Rockets would also clear a roster spot by waiving Anthony, giving them 13 players on full NBA contracts. One of the two remaining spots is surely earmarked for Clark, who is quickly burning through the 45 allotted days of service on his two-way deal and will undoubtedly get an NBA contract at that point. With Gerald Green struggling from beyond the arc (he's at 25.9 percent so far this season), Houston could look to fill the other spot with another floor spacer on a non-guaranteed contract that would give the Rockets flexibility leading up to the trade deadline and buyout season.
A trade involving backup center Marquese Chriss appears a likely option with Chriss falling behind rookie Isaiah Hartenstein in the center rotation. Houston could either trade Chriss in a salary dump to cut the team's luxury-tax bill or use him as an expiring contract in a deal for immediate bench help.
Whatever the next move is, expect Rockets GM Daryl Morey to be active in an effort to right the ship. Houston has invested heavily in winning now, and moving on from Anthony would be only the first indication that results so far have been unsatisfactory.