No organization has felt the pressure heading into the trade deadline more than the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The combination of a 30-21 record, the uncertain future of LeBron James, an aging team and a valuable lottery pick in June has all eyes on Cleveland before the Feb. 8 deadline.
What moves can and should the Cavs make?
The untouchable
The normal trend is that an All-Star entering the final season of his contract while non-committal about the future would be in trade discussions. That trend doesn't exist when it comes to LeBron James -- nor should it.
With James on the roster, a team always has a path to the NBA Finals. Although Cleveland has been inconsistent this season and there is no guarantee James will be in Cleveland next year, neither James nor Cleveland has ever broached the topic of waiving the no-trade clause in his contract.
James is one of three players (along with Dirk Nowitzki and Carmelo Anthony) with a true no-trade clause. The future Hall of Famer earned the clause not only with his transcendent talent but by being in the NBA for a minimum of eight years and for playing in Cleveland for four of those seasons (not consecutively).
The Brooklyn pick
There are no three words that bring as much debate in the NBA than the mention of "The Brooklyn pick." Acquired in the Kyrie Irving trade last August, the Nets' pick was sought as a golden ticket based on their record in the previous two seasons, helping the Celtics draft Jaylen Brown in 2016 and Jayson Tatum in 2017. The draft asset is also considered as an insurance policy and building block if LeBron leaves in free agency -- or it can be a selling point for James to return.
Now halfway through the season the golden ticket that many thought would be in the top three is now projected to land at 5.6, on average, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). Would the Cavaliers move the pick if it could improve the product on the court for the short-term but not the future? The answer is no.
While Cleveland is not actively shopping the pick, league sources tell ESPN that the Cavaliers have a short list of players they would consider. That list consists of players still on their rookie contracts who have All-Star-level potential. Of course, the likes of Paul George or Kawhi Leonard (sorry, they are not available) fall in that category as well.
Keep in mind also that the Nets' first-rounder could have more value in June. While that does not assist Cleveland on the court right now, it could help shape the franchise in the future. After all, Minnesota was able to turn the No. 7 pick in the draft (along with Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn) into Jimmy Butler.
The value of the roster
Putting together a championship roster -- including three trips to the NBA Finals -- has come at a cost to the Cavaliers, not only with first-round picks traded in previous seasons but also with how the team is constructed.
Because of roster restrictions, Cleveland has been forced to overpay to retain its own players. The result is a top-heavy roster filled in with minimum-salary players. Case in point are the free agencies of JR Smith and Tristan Thompson. After months of stalled negotiations, the Cavs entered the month of October (2015 for Thompson and 2016 for Smith) without two of their starters. Lose both players, and Cleveland would not have cap space to find a replacement. Now years later, both contracts could be considered more of a hindrance in trade discussions.
Besides their top two players (James and the injured Kevin Love), Cleveland has five players -- Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, Iman Shumpert and Channing Frye -- that have appeal based on their contracts. Thomas and Frye are expiring, Shumpert has a player option for next season and Korver's and Crowder's salaries fall below the midlevel exception. Dwyane Wade and Jeff Green, two key members off the bench, are on minimum contracts, and the Cavaliers would not bring back equal value if both were brought up in trade discussions. (And Wade and Green have not been discussed in trades.)
The trade assets
Take the Brooklyn pick off the table, and the Cavaliers have their own first (currently projected at No. 21.3, per BPI) to use in trade discussions. Even though NBA rules don't allow teams to trade future first-round picks in consecutive seasons, Cleveland can shop its own pick since it has the Nets' pick as well. The Cavaliers would not be allowed to trade both the Brooklyn pick and their own first at the deadline.
Outside of the first-round picks this season, the draft assets for Cleveland shrink. Because of the Korver trade last January, the Cavaliers are not permitted to trade a first until 2022. Because there is protection in a first-round pick that would roll over to two second-round picks, Cleveland also cannot move its 2021 and 2022 seconds. The Cavaliers can offer a Miami 2020 second-rounder and their own in 2023 and 2024.
One under-the-radar asset that the Cavaliers have is the $5.8 million trade exception created in the Korver deal. However, because Cleveland is a repeater tax team, using the exception would cost Cleveland $4.25 million for every $1 million spent. The Cavaliers also have three small trade exceptions of $2.5 million, $1.3 million and $980,000.
Toughest contract to trade
Shave a season off the contract of Tristan Thompson and JR Smith, and both players would not fall into this category. Thompson is under contract through the 2019-20 season, with annual cap hits of $16.0 million, $17.5 million and $18.5 million.
With the salary cap only expected to increase to $108 million in 2019-20, teams are hesitant to take on the third year of the Thompson salary. Smith has a $14.7 million cap hit in 2018-19 and $3.8 million guaranteed for the following season.
What to target at the deadline
The rumored George Hill deal that did not materialize weeks ago are the types of trades that the Cavaliers will have to target -- players who either have high salaries or are not part of the future for young teams. As in the case of Hill, Cavs management had reservations taking back salary next season if it involves any of their expiring contracts. With the uncertainty of James, Cleveland cannot afford to be on the hook for contracts past this season, especially if the direction is to rebuild if James does leave.
The Cavaliers do have a trade exception that would fit in the $3.3 million Tyreke Evans salary, but such a deal would cost them their own first this season and $14 million in additional luxury taxes.
Post-deadline roster movement
Without a trade, the Cavs would need to waive a player if they wish to add a player bought out of their contract before March 1.
Cleveland used half of its taxpayer midlevel exception on Cedi Osman and currently has $2.2 million remaining. The cost of using the exception is $9 million in additional luxury tax penalties.