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          NBA draft stock watch: Who's rising, falling in new top 100?

          Is Luka Doncic still the favorite to be the No. 1 pick? OUTJUSSI NUKARI/AFP/Getty Images
          • Jonathan Givony
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            Jonathan Givony
            ESPN
              NBA draft analyst and writer
              Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
              Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
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          • Mike Schmitz
          Dec 12, 2017, 07:47 AM ET

          With new names emerging and plenty of movement throughout the top 10 and beyond, here's some of what we've learned so far about the players in our top-100 prospect rankings for the 2018 NBA draft:

          The first 30 days of the college basketball season aren't the right time to draw definitive, long-term conclusions about the NBA prospects of 18- to 22-year-olds, as tempting as that might be. While most teams have already played between 9-12 games, the majority of schools haven't tested themselves more than a handful of times at most.

          The average team has stayed relatively close to home as much as possible, loading up the schedule with "buy games" against low-major competition intended to sell out the arena, put money in the administration's coffers, secure an easy win for the home squad and fatten up the coach's career record.

          While there are usually a few games you can find in which the level of competition was adequate enough to draw some conclusions, the sample size is still way too small, and you are lucky if those games featured NBA-level size and/or athleticism matching up head-to-head. Players' stats can be badly skewed in one direction or another at this point, making it logical to hold off until more definitive conclusions can be drawn.

          With that in mind, we've held off on making too many sweeping changes in the top 100, but there was certainly room for an update a month into the season. The real fun starts this month, when conference play mostly tips off.

          Luka Doncic | PG | Real Madrid

          Schmitz: The 6-foot-8 Slovenian sensation has followed up his tremendous EuroBasket gold medal run with a monstrous start to the Spanish ACB and EuroLeague seasons, remaining No. 1 on our board as a result. Real Madrid has had its ups and downs as a team, sitting at ninth place in the EuroLeague with a 5-6 record and 10-1 in domestic competition while battling the injury bug, but Doncic has done everything possible to keep the Spanish powerhouse afloat. The 18-year-old has been nothing short of sensational, picking up the slack for injured Sergio Llull -- the 2017 ACB Most Valuable Player -- and posting historic numbers in the world's top league outside of the NBA:

          Some scouts worry about his shot creation or functional athleticism at the NBA level, but Doncic has managed to get to the free throw line nearly 10 times per 40 minutes thus far, which is good for third in the EuroLeague. Overall, only one other player since 2000 has averaged at least 25 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per 40 minutes in the EuroLeague (former Spurs draft pick Nando De Colo did it in 2016 at age 28).

          Real Madrid is faring much better in ACB play, where Doncic has also been excellent, boasting a 2.04 assist-to-turnover rate to go along with per-40 minute averages of 22.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 7.0 assists. It's a long season, but Doncic is a legitimate candidate to take home the EuroLeague MVP award this season, especially if Real Madrid can turn things around. He's coming off of a career-best 33-point performance against Olympiacos and has shown no signs of slowing down both as a scorer and facilitator.

          Teams might find ways to nitpick Doncic defensively or as a half-court shot-creator, and having a physically dominant, skilled star like Deandre Ayton in the States could work against Doncic as far as his chances of be drafted No. 1 overall are concerned. But he has proven himself as one of the best players in the EuroLeague at age 18, while excelling against NBA stars such as Kristaps Porzingis this summer with the Slovenian national team.

          Doncic is 6-8, 230 pounds with the smooth shooting stroke of a wing and the handle and court sense of a point guard. He's competitive, an elite positional rebounder and has the killer mentality teams look for in a franchise star. He fits the pass-dribble-shoot, position-less era of the NBA with his ability to push in transition, shoot off the catch, pull up off the dribble and make every pass out of pick-and-roll. Ayton, and potentially Marvin Bagley, will give Doncic a run for his money when June rolls around, but at the moment the most productive European prospect of all time remains atop our draft board.

          Deandre Ayton | C | Arizona

          Schmitz: Ayton leapfrogs Duke's Bagley at No. 2 as the top NBA prospect in the NCAA, thanks to his combination of ready-made production and upside. Ayton, who debuted at No. 1 on our 2018 mock draft in January 2017, is averaging 25.8 points and 15.0 rebounds per 40 minutes with a 66.0 true shooting percentage through 10 games. Including Ayton, only four players in the DraftExpress database have averaged at least 25 points and 15 rebounds per 40 minutes with a true shooting percentage over 65 in at least 10 games played: Blake Griffin (2009), UNLV's Brandon McCoy (this season) and Malik Rose (1996).

          Ayton is the most physically dominant force in college basketball at 7-0, 260 pounds with a 7-5 wingspan and tremendous mobility. He spaces the floor to 3, can score in a variety of ways out of the post and displays excellent passing for his size. Most recently, Ayton posted 29 points and 18 rebounds against Alabama, showing off his impressive offensive arsenal along with his strong rebounding instincts while a handful of general managers watched from the stands.

          While Bagley remains a top-shelf prospect, Ayton has the physical tools and talent of a franchise center that fit in the modern NBA. He has also made great strides with his motor and discipline since arriving at Arizona. His lack of structure at the high-school level led to a lot of bad habits, which resulted in up-and-down play, but coach Sean Miller has done an excellent job of getting the most out of the freshman.

          Ayton does still have quite a bit of room to grow on the defensive end, though. While he can step out and move his feet, he doesn't have great instincts as a rim-protector and could stand to play with more vigor on that end of the floor.

          Mikal Bridges | SF | Villanova

          Givony: After redshirting his first year at Villanova, Bridges stepped into an important role as a freshman and sophomore, seeing 25 minutes per game on average and playing lockdown defense while guarding multiple positions on a team that won a national championship in 2016 and subsequently earned a No. 1 NCAA tournament seed last year.

          Still, he looked comfortable blending into the background and being a bit player on offense, ranking sixth and seventh on those teams in usage rate, which hovered around 15 percent. Bridges looked like a different player this August at the prestigious Adidas Nations camp in Houston, where he was asked to match up with the likes of Michael Porter, Bruce Brown, Trevon Bluiett and many others. Bridges was ultra-aggressive, looking to make things happen every moment he was on the court, something that certainly carried into this season, where he's now averaging a 23 percent usage rate, top 10 among players projected to be drafted. As he told us in August, that didn't come naturally for him.

          "That's something I really lacked," Bridges said. "I let the game go by. Learning to be a leader, learning to be aggressive -- I'm trying to learn that right now. Every day I have my family, my coaches, a lot of people around me making sure to tell me to keep being aggressive. Just trying to have that motor, that mindset, go out there and attack and keep going, just like how Josh Hart was. That's something I learned from him. No matter where he was, even as a freshman, he wasn't the star, but he was still aggressive, in attack mode. That's what I keep trying to learn as I get older."

          Bridges looked anything but shy this past week at the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden, where almost the entire NBA scouting community saw him score 28 points in an emphatic win over Gonzaga. He capped that off with a thunderous one-handed dunk while attacking a closeout, followed by a huge block on the following possession, a sequence that had the NBA scouts staring at each other in disbelief.

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          Villanova's Bridges follows huge dunk with a block

          Mikal Bridges throws down with a big slam and follows it by rejecting Josh Perkins at the other end.

          Bridges is an easy fit in today's NBA, with his lanky, 6-7 frame with a 7-1½ wingspan, 38 percent career 3-point shooting percentage, fluid athleticism and ability to check point guards to power forwards. The best part may be the fact that he knows exactly who he is as a player, evidenced by his miniscule 9.7 percent turnover rate, sky-high 69 percent true shooting percentage and gorgeous shot chart.

          "Whatever a team needs me to do [I'll do]," Bridges said. "They are going to get a guy who is going to go hard, play hard every possession, bring intensity on defense and try to get the team going. And then on offense, whatever they need me to do."

          Bridges' terrific season landed him a spot in the lottery portion of our latest mock draft even before the Jimmy V Classic tipped. He's knocking on the door of the top 10 of our top 100, and is one of the easiest players to project to the NBA of any prospect in this draft, even if his average shot-creation skills do limit his upside as a scorer to an extent.

          Rodions Kurucs | SF/PF | Barcelona

          Givony: Considered a likely late first-round pick last June before ultimately withdrawing at the deadline, Kurucs hasn't seen things go according to plan. A host of NBA scouts have followed the Latvian forward around, even game-to-game, for nearly three months now, only to be disappointed by the lack of minutes he has seen on a dysfunctional Barcelona team that is enduring yet another disappointing season. He has played in only five games with Barcelona's second team in LEB Gold (Spanish second division), seeing just 18 minutes per contest on average, and not particularly shining there. A call-up to the Latvian senior national team to take part in the FIBA World Championship qualifying campaign only yielded six scoreless minutes of playing time in total.

          This week Barcelona made a point to officially announce his inclusion in the ACB roster for the first time, due to an injury, and then proceeded to dry him out on the bench the entire game as the team suffered an embarrassing home loss to Tenerife.

          It's tough for NBA scouts to ascertain how much of Kurucs' disappointing campaign is due to his own lack of progress and how much can be assigned to Barcelona's well-known inability (or unwillingness) to promote and develop young players. Either way, he's in a tough situation right now, with another year on his contract (which includes an astronomical buyout) and no clear path to playing time to gain the exposure he needs to lift his NBA prospects out of the doldrums.

          He is reportedly close to gaining Spanish "home-grown" status in the next few weeks, which will allow him to play in the ACB as a local, something that may improve his prospects of getting minutes on Barcelona's crowded roster. With the team currently flailing in the EuroLeague at 4-7 and head coach Sito Alonso reportedly on the hot seat, Kurucs' path to playing time doesn't look particularly promising.

          As we've found throughout the years, this is unfortunately often the reality of being a young, well-compensated prospect in Europe.

          Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Trae Young (Oklahoma) | PGs

          Givony: Mike Schmitz went into quite a bit of detail on Monday on this pair of fantastic freshman guard prospects, which you should certainly read, so we'll reiterate only their standing in the latest top 100.

          Sexton started the season at No. 8 and has moved up two spots after his terrific start to the season. Can he break the top five? The injured Michael Porter and Texas center Mo Bamba are the next two in his path. That could very well come down to depth charts and positional needs of teams drafting in that range, and it's unlikely that Sacramento (currently slated to draft third by ESPN's Basketball Power Index) or Dallas (No. 5) will be in the market for a point guard after picking one last season. Atlanta (No. 4) or especially Phoenix (No. 2), should they slide, would probably consider it.

          Whereas Sexton started the season highly regarded, Young has made the most astronomical jump of any player in this year's draft projection, rocketing up all the way into the No. 12 slot of our latest top 100. The Oklahoma native has passed every test he has faced thus far with flying colors, making it increasingly difficult to doubt his scorching and historically productive hot start. He has another great matchup in store this week against Landry Shamet and Wichita State on Saturday.

          Khyri Thomas | SG | Creighton

          Schmitz: The Creighton guard and Omaha native rises to No. 29 on our top 100, after averaging 16.1 points per game on 62.1 percent from 2 and 43.9 percent from 3 through nine games. We broke down Thomas' game and value at the NBA level after scouting him at the CBE Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City a few weeks ago.

          Thomas projects as a 3-and-D style off-guard who defends multiple positions thanks to his motor and 6-10 wingspan. He's an improved and capable spot-up shooter and has a strong feel for the game with his willingness to stay in his lane on the offensive end. Known as "Tazz" by his family members and teammates, Thomas has the motor, two-way impact, physical tools and approach to maximize his potential and add value as a role player at the next level.

          The unheralded high school recruit has improved incrementally each and every season, and NBA scouts have certainly taken notice.

          Jevon Carter | PG | West Virginia

          Givony: West Virginia was expected to have a down season, having lost some key pieces off last year's Sweet 16 team and losing a few more during the offseason as well. With an inexperienced roster and very little inside presence, it was no surprise that the team was hammered in its season opener by Texas A&M.

          Since then, the Mountaineers have reeled off nine straight victories, including a huge home win over Virginia, with Carter playing the best basketball of his career.

          The senior point guard isn't particularly impressive physically, measuring just 6-1½ in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan and seemingly average run/jump athleticism. He has nevertheless established himself as the best defensive point guard in college basketball over the past two years and is averaging an outrageous 4.4 steals per-40 this season. Only two players in the history of college basketball have averaged 6.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 4.0 steals per-40, like Carter has: Sam Cassell and Jason Kidd. It's unlikely that Carter will be able to sustain that over the course of an entire season, but it will certainly be fun to monitor.

          His impact goes well beyond the box score, as he smothers opponents all over the floor, covering ground impressively, putting intense pressure on the ball and guarding anywhere from point guard to power forward with his tremendous energy and instincts.

          Carter's defense alone might be enough to win him a NBA roster spot, but his overall improvement offensively this year is notable from a draft perspective. He's shooting the ball at an extremely high level in particular, showing confidence in his pull-up stroke, leading to plenty of attempts (and makes) from well beyond NBA range. Teams can't go under ball screens on him, as he'll rise high up into the air and knock down shots at the apex of his jump with impressive mechanics, and he combines that with strong ball-handling skills that allow him to get into his shot seamlessly in a variety of situations.

          So far this season we've seen Carter successfully knock down shots coming off screens and dribble handoffs, with his feet set in the early offense or the half-court, and also sizing up defenders on isolation plays. He's hitting 43 percent of his 3-point attempts on the season and 90 percent of his free throws, bringing his career averages to a respectable 35 and 78 percent (and climbing) through 3½ seasons.

          From an NBA standpoint, it's important for Carter to be a capable shooter, both with his feet set and off the dribble, since he isn't blessed with blazing speed or explosiveness, and thus doesn't project as a natural primary creator at the next level. He doesn't get to the rim all that often in the half-court and struggles at times to finish once he does, relying heavily on his strength. Considered more of a combo guard earlier on in his career, he can facilitate offensively and make most of the basic point guard passes you want to see, but he is still not the most advanced playmaker you'll find. He still has some wild moments at times but has done a much better job of cutting down on those this year.

          There is a place in the NBA for guards in Carter's mold, as players in the Patrick Beverley prototype are extremely hard to come by. They are ideal to pair next to a star guard or wing who carries the load offensively. Carter's toughness, consistent shooting, improved decision-making and winning pedigree have helped him crack the top 50 of our latest top 100, and he can continue to solidify his standing in the eyes of scouts with a strong showing in Big 12 conference play.

          Chimezie Metu | PF/C | USC

          Schmitz: It has been a tough start to the year for USC and Metu, a junior. The Trojans have dropped three straight games to Texas A&M, SMU and Oklahoma, and Metu is shooting 14-for-31 with 10 turnovers and 10 fouls during that stretch, while frustrating scouts with his fluctuating motor. The explosive 6-10 big man certainly has the talent level of a potential first-round pick, but he's struggling to find out who he is on the floor and how he can impact the game most efficiently.

          When Metu flies around and plays with energy, there's a lot to like. He's light on his feet, quick off the floor and has a fair amount of skill to work with. He can make a standstill college 3-pointer with time, looks comfortable straight-line driving and finishing with either hand, plays above the rim in space and has the vision to be a plus-passer when the game slows down for him.

          With that said, Metu floats regularly and is too focused on being a skill guy despite not having the consistency with his jumper or decision-making to rely solely on those aspects of his game. He has a 0.44 assist-to-turnover rate through seven games and has struggled to get into any sort of flow thus far, causing scouts to wonder what he can do at an NBA level.

          If Metu can lock in on adding more value as a defender, rebounder and finisher, while sticking to his strengths on the offensive end, it will be hard for teams to pass on him in the late first round. If he continues to float and function as an inefficient scorer, though, Metu may have to consider returning for his senior season, as he simply doesn't have the no-brainer length (6-10½ wingspan) or NBA fit to fall back on.

          Metu will have a chance to right the ship these next few games as the Trojans take on mid-major programs Santa Clara, UC Santa Barbara, Princeton and Akron. Metu is still 20 years old and figures to look much better with NBA spacing, but proving he can produce consistently on both ends of the floor is the first step of him getting to the next level.