How good are the Boston Celtics with Gordon Hayward? Can they challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers for Eastern Conference supremacy this season?
After experiencing frustration in the trade market, the Celtics finally landed the star they've long hoped to add to their core of Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas. As first reported by ESPN's Chris Haynes, Hayward has chosen Boston over remaining with the Utah Jazz or signing with the Miami Heat.
Because of their value contracts, the Celtics can create the cap space necessary to sign Hayward as a free agent without surrendering any starter from last season's team that won 53 games and reached the Eastern Conference finals before getting beat 4-1 by the Cavaliers. So how does Boston project with Hayward?
Smaller moves necessary to make room for Hayward
While the Celtics won't have to shed any starters, as ESPN's Bobby Marks lays out they must make several moves in order to be able to sign Hayward to a max contract. Waiving or trading players whose contracts aren't fully guaranteed, such as Demetrius Jackson and Jordan Mickey, and trading backup point guard Terry Rozier wouldn't be quite enough to get Hayward to his max, which he reportedly was offered and accepted.
To get all the way to Hayward's max, the Celtics would have to trade at least one of their players making more than $2 million, a group that includes starters Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas, recent No. 3 picks Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and sixth man Marcus Smart.
Because he's entering the final season of his rookie contract and due a raise in 2018-19, Smart is the most obvious target, though Boston could also consider dealing Crowder because Hayward potentially takes his spot in the starting lineup. (Crowder still projects to finish most games for the Celtics as part of smaller lineups with Al Horford at center instead of power forward.)
Smart and Crowder have reasonable contracts and should return draft picks for Boston if traded, rather than requiring the Celtics to give up picks to dump their salaries.
How Hayward fits in Boston
Long before Hayward's arrival, Celtics president of basketball operations and GM Danny Ainge was stockpiling versatile swingmen capable of defending multiple positions. Crowder fits that mold, as do Brown and Tatum. And now so does Hayward.
With the notable exception of Thomas, every key Boston player can defend multiple positions, giving Celtics coach Brad Stevens rare lineup flexibility. Expect the Celtics to start conventionally with Horford at power forward alongside rookie Ante Zizic, Hayward at small forward and Thomas and Bradley in the backcourt.
From there, Stevens could go bigger by shifting Hayward to shooting guard or smaller with Horford moving to the middle and Crowder and Brown both options to serve as athletic stretch 4s. Such combinations should be ideal for matching up with the small lineups the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors like to use.
Adding Hayward also gives Stevens more options on offense. He has developed into one of the league's better secondary ball handlers. According to Synergy Sports tracking, Hayward ranked eighth among non-point guards in pick-and-rolls that resulted in a shot, turnover or trip to the free throw line by himself or a player to whom he passed.
One potential concern for Hayward in going to Boston is that he might have fewer opportunities to handle the ball alongside Thomas. Surprisingly, though, after accounting for pace, Synergy tracked Thomas running pick-and-rolls only slightly more frequently on a per-play basis than Jazz point guard George Hill in 2016-17:
Granted, Hill's minutes were limited last season because of injury, giving Hayward more opportunities. But Hayward's role might not be dramatically different with the Celtics, particularly if Stevens commits to staggering the minutes of his two perimeter stars so at least one of them is always on the court. That gives Hayward an opportunity to serve as a primary shot creator while Thomas is resting.
Assuming they're happy with the arrangement -- and Thomas certainly seems excited about the idea of adding Hayward -- both players have the shooting chops to be successful when the other one has the ball. Per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Thomas shot 40.4 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, and Hayward shot 38.5 percent. And having another creator will make it more difficult for opponents to load up on Thomas.
Projecting Boston with Hayward
My suspicion is the Celtics might not improve during the 2017-18 regular season as much as everyone expects, for a variety of reasons. While adding Hayward will be relatively painless by the standards of signing a max free agent, it still means sacrificing depth in the form of backup center Kelly Olynyk (a restricted free agent whose rights Boston would have to renounce) and potentially Smart.
Beyond that, Boston's record flattered the team's actual performance during the 2016-17 regular season. The Celtics' plus-2.6 point differential would typically translate into about 48 wins, five fewer than Boston actually won. During the playoffs, the Celtics looked more like a 48-win team as they went one game shy of the maximum through the first two rounds before getting blown out by Cleveland.
And that's ultimately the key to this signing. Though Thomas' injury was certainly a major factor, getting the No. 1 seed didn't ultimately do much for Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. (Even the team's one win came on the road.) As depth became less important, the Celtics lacked the star talent to match up with the Cavaliers. Adding Hayward helps close that gap.
I'm not sure the gap is closed completely. That will depend at least as much on how LeBron James ages as anything Boston does. But after a summer in which talent has drained from the East to the West, Hayward has reversed that trend and figures to make the Eastern Conference playoffs more dramatic this time around.