Which free-agent destination gives Gordon Hayward the best chance of winning over the next few years?
All eyes are on Hayward, perhaps the best player with a realistic chance of changing teams now that Chris Paul has been traded to the Houston Rockets and taken himself off the market.
Hayward reportedly met with the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat in addition to the incumbent Utah Jazz. While Hayward's decision will depend on many factors, with money possibly not an issue -- Hayward might not be interested in the five-year deal only the Jazz can offer because he's still in his prime -- the ability to win could take on paramount importance.
So, with the help of my multiyear projections, let's take a look at how all three teams project with Hayward.
Utah Jazz
Let's start with the Jazz, who won 50-plus games for the first time in Hayward's career last season. Here's how Utah's current players project over the next three seasons in terms of wins above replacement player (WARP), along with the additional wins the Jazz can expect to add over that span via free agency and the draft.
Because my system is designed so that a team of replacement-level players would win 10 games, you can generally add 10 wins to get a team's projected total. That puts next season's Jazz around 55 wins, which seems reasonable given the injuries the team faced this season. Utah can expect to get far more production from Derrick Favors (1.4 WARP in 50 games in 2016-17), offsetting players who enjoyed career years expected to regress to the mean.
Dealing for Ricky Rubio on Friday helped the Jazz's projection. Currently in his prime, Rubio is projected for a combined 23.5 WARP over the next three seasons as compared to 16.4 for older incumbent starter George Hill. The Jazz also brought back Joe Ingles, agreeing to a four-year, $52 million deal with the restricted free agent. That high price does make it unlikely Utah would actually be able to add above-replacement talent using cap space, so I've zeroed out that category for 2017-18.
If Utah can find a way to keep everyone, modest improvement can be expected the next couple of years. The Jazz could surpass their projections if Rudy Gobert maintains and builds on his offensive improvement from last season (he's one of the players expected to regress to the mean) and if Dante Exum develops more than expected now that he's two years removed from a torn ACL. Exum's progress is Utah's best hope of cracking the top echelon of Western Conference contenders.
Miami Heat
The Heat have plenty of interesting options this offseason. I've projected them to lose free agents James Johnson and Dion Waiters, whom Miami would need to re-sign using cap space unless they're willing to come back for 120 percent of their 2016-17 salaries using non-Bird rights.
I have the Heat waiving Josh McRoberts and stretching his $6.0 million salary to create additional cap space, much of which goes to retaining Wayne Ellington, whose $6.3 million salary becomes guaranteed the day after the moratorium. The Heat also retain Luke Babbitt's full Bird rights and have about $3.6 million in cap space remaining after signing Hayward.
Based on those assumptions, adding Hayward has a surprisingly modest impact for Miami, which would be projected to jump by about eight wins from last season's 41-41 total. The prospect of losing Johnson, who had 6.2 WARP last season in a surprising career year, explains a lot of that. (SCHOENE's pessimism about Goran Dragic's maintaining last season's success at his age is also a key factor.) If the Heat can find a way to keep Johnson, their projection would be more competitive with the Jazz.
Worse yet for Miami, Pat Riley will be hard-pressed to keep adding talent via free agency and the draft. The Heat's 2018 first-round pick goes to Phoenix if it's outside the top seven and Miami's payroll jumps massively in 2018-19 because Tyler Johnson's backloaded Arenas-rule contract kicks in. (He'll go from counting $5.9 million against the cap this season to $19.2 million in 2018-19.)
So unless Riley can pull off trades using distant draft picks, next season might be a high-water mark for the Heat in the near future.
Boston Celtics
Last up, let's take a look at the Celtics. I have Boston trading Marcus Smart, who's due a big raise in 2018-19 as a restricted free agent, to make room for a max offer. I also didn't consider a possible Paul George trade given it's tough to predict exactly who would be included. That still leaves the Celtics with an impressive mix of current stars and young prospects.
Because ESPN's real plus-minus rates Jae Crowder as one of the league's top role players, Boston has three players besides Hayward projected to produce 20-plus WARP over the next three seasons. Both Utah (Gobert) and Miami (Hassan Whiteside) have only one such player. So the Celtics are projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 56 wins in 2017-18 (they won 53 games last season, albeit with the point differential of a 48-win team) and only improve from there.
What's most impressive about Boston looking forward is the sheer depth of young talent. Based on his performance last season in Turkey, my projections have 2016 first-round pick Ante Zizic developing into a quality rotation player by his second season. No. 3 overall pick Jayson Tatum is on a similar schedule, and fellow 2016 pick Guerschon Yabusele could be a contributor as soon as he comes to the NBA. (I have the Celtics delaying his arrival until 2017-18 for cap purposes.)
Not all of that young talent will develop -- my projections are particularly low on Jaylen Brown, who rated worse than replacement level as a rookie despite showing the ability to hold his own in a small role -- but Boston has enough options to project for 60-plus wins with Hayward in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
There are plenty of reasons for Hayward to stick around in Salt Lake City to see out the rebuilding process he helped begin, and it's impossible to say from the outside which city and team would make him happiest. But as far as the ability to win, it looks as though signing with the Celtics gives Hayward the best opportunity.