Would adding All-Star point guard Chris Paul make the San Antonio Spurs a true threat to the Golden State Warriors?
If Paul decides to leave the LA Clippers, who can offer him an extra year and an estimated $53 million more than any other suitor, he intends to seriously consider joining the Spurs, according to ESPN's Marc Stein.
One of the factors Paul must consider is how much a move would improve his chances of beating the Warriors, who are likely to bring back a similar core because of Kevin Durant's willingness to take less money this summer.
How much would adding Paul close the gap with Golden State? Let's take a look at some early statistical projections for San Antonio with Paul at the point.
Scenario A: Spurs move Parker
If Paul picks San Antonio, and the Spurs pay him the max, clearing enough room under the salary cap to fit his $35.3 million salary will be tricky. Even if center Pau Gasol declines his $16.2 million player option for 2017-18 and the Spurs renounce all their other free agents -- a group including key reserves Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills and Jonathon Simmons -- they'd still have less than $23 million in projected cap space based on the NBA's current $101 million salary-cap projection.
The most painless way for San Antonio to clear the necessary space in basketball terms would also be the most painful from a human perspective: moving veteran point guard Tony Parker, who has played his entire career for the Spurs, winning four championships. Since Paul would effectively replace Parker, who told French newspaper L'Equipe he doesn't expect to return from a ruptured quadriceps until next January, the on-court transition would be relatively seamless.
San Antonio could waive Parker and stretch his $15.4 million 2017-18 salary over the next three seasons to get to $33.2 million in cap space. Giving Paul his max would also require trading young reserves Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans and Dejounte Murray, as well as this year's first-round pick (drafting a player who intends to remain overseas would also work), which would leave the Spurs with just three players under contract before signing Paul.
Alternatively, San Antonio could try to use draft picks to entice a team under the cap to take on Parker's entire $15.5 million salary, which under current projections would allow the Spurs to avoid trading any young players and to retain the rights to free agents Simmons and David Lee while still creating the necessary cap space.
Let's imagine the Spurs are able to trade Parker while re-signing Simmons, Lee and center Dewayne Dedmon using their room midlevel exception. That would yield the following rotation, as projected for 2017-18 by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM):
RPM sees this group as slightly better at both ends than this year's Spurs, who were 2.4 points per 100 possessions better than league average on offense and 5.0 points per 100 possessions better on defense. The offensive upgrade from Parker to Paul is somewhat offset by the loss of Gasol and increased minutes for Murray, who projects as a below-average offensive player despite the fact that point guards typically rate much better than average on offense (and worse on defense).
All told, RPM would project 62 wins for this version of San Antonio, only one more than this past season. However, it's worth noting that RPM projections are by nature conservative, and last year's summer projections for the Spurs called for just 54.5 wins.
Scenario B: Spurs move Aldridge
Because of his importance to the organization, letting Parker go might not be an option for San Antonio. In that case, the Spurs would probably need to trade LaMarcus Aldridge to clear the necessary cap space. (Trading the lower-priced Danny Green would create the same additional complications as stretching Parker's salary.)
Dealing Aldridge's salary ($21.5 million in 2017-18) to a team with the necessary cap space would make the cap math much easier for San Antonio. The Spurs could then retain the rights to Simmons and Lee and have about $7 million in cap space to use after signing Paul, based on current projections.
Let's imagine that San Antonio uses the money to sign Nenê as a replacement for Aldridge and Gasol in the frontcourt, which would produce this rotation:
While this group is weaker offensively because it replaces Aldridge with Nenê (and gives more minutes for Bertans and Lee), this group is slightly better defensively. RPM would forecast about 61 wins for this version of the Spurs.
Either way, San Antonio is unlikely to entirely close the gap on the Warriors, who were nearly as good on defense this season as the Spurs project with Paul, but were much better offensively. San Antonio has to sacrifice too much depth to create max cap space.
Still, joining the Spurs would surely give Paul a more realistic chance of reaching the conference finals for the first time in his star-crossed playoff career and give him hope of beating Golden State -- something the Clippers may no longer offer.