The deal
Sixers get: Dallas' top-18 protected 2017 first-round pick (converts to two second-round picks if not conveyed), guard Justin Anderson, center Andrew Bogut
Mavericks get: Center Nerlens Noel
Dallas Mavericks: B+
When Noel was in the 2013 draft, Tyson Chandler was a trendy comparison for his ability as a shot-blocker and above-the-rim finisher. So it's fitting that, three-plus years later, Noel heads to where Chandler reached his greatest heights -- the Mavericks.
Dallas coach Rick Carlisle wants his centers to be rim-runners, capable of rolling hard to the basket and catching lobs to create what's known in the NBA as "vertical spacing." Noel fits the bill. So far this season, nearly half of his made shots (52 of 107, per Basketball-Reference.com) have been dunks. As a result, after occasionally struggling with his efficiency while playing next to another big man the past two seasons, Noel is shooting a career-high 61.1 percent in 2016-17 -- better than Chandler's 59.4 percent career shooting.
At the other end, Noel hasn't proved to be in Chandler's class as a rim protector so far. He's generally been around average for a starting center in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, with opponents shooting 50.0 percent inside 5 feet this season according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. And possibly in part because he's less judicious attempting to block shots, Noel is a substantially worse defensive rebounder.
That said, Noel's quickness probably outpaces Chandler's, and he has terrific anticipation in the passing lanes. Remarkably, Noel's 3.6 steals per 100 team plays lead all NBA regulars (minimum 500 minutes); he was at 2.9 steals per 100 each of the last two seasons.
Noel's athleticism allows him to hold his own defending power forwards, crucial when he plays alongside Dirk Nowitzki with the Mavericks. While putting Noel on 4s and Nowitzki on slower 5s doesn't maximize his defensive ability, that pairing should work far better than Nowitzki and Bogut did before Carlisle quickly abandoned that combination.
This trade is a signal Noel will outlast Nowitzki in Dallas, and that's where this deal will truly be decided for the Mavericks. If they can re-sign Noel as a restricted free agent to a deal starting around $15 million per season and get average or better play from him as a starting center, giving up Anderson and what will likely be a couple of second-round picks would be great value because Noel is a better center option than anyone they likely could have signed in free agency.
If a team signs Noel to a big offer sheet -- and ESPN's Zach Lowe suggested on Twitter that the possibility of near-max offers was a reason the trade market for Noel was tepid -- Dallas might not realize much value from this trade because he'll be fairly paid at best and likely overpaid. In that case, the Mavericks might have given up too much to get Noel's matching rights because he's unlikely to help them make the playoffs this season.
Philadelphia 76ers: B-
Let's start with the optimistic view of this deal from the 76ers' standpoint. Noel was about to get paid as a restricted free agent, and while Philadelphia has unusually strong need for a capable backup center because of Joel Embiid's health history, there were only so many minutes for Noel when Embiid was healthy unless they were able to play together. And even that possibility is complicated by the presence of Ben Simmons and Dario Saric at power forward.
So moving Noel did make sense if the value was there, and the answer to that question depends on your valuation of Anderson. Though he could never seem to win Carlisle's trust, Anderson is a physical wing defender with an excellent combination of steal and block rates. In fact, Noel and Anderson (who just sneaks over the bar) are both among the 21 players in the league who have averaged 2.0 steals per 100 team plays and blocked 2.0 percent of opponent 2-point attempts or better in at least 500 minutes.
As Lowe quickly noted on Twitter, Anderson is exactly the kind of wing prospect who has tended to haunt teams who give such players away as part of larger deals.
The common denominator in the examples Lowe identified is they typically added 3-point accuracy to their defensive ability to become two-way contributors. Anderson has shot just 28.8 percent from long range as an NBA player (30.3 percent this season) but did manage to shoot 45.2 percent as a junior at Virginia after posting percentages similar to his NBA marks his first two seasons. So it's certainly possible Anderson does the same.
The pick protection (top-18) makes it a long shot the Sixers get a first-round pick on top of Anderson. Adding Noel could shift those odds, but at this point simulations using ESPN's Basketball Power Index show less than 0.1 percent chance of the Mavericks' pick falling outside the top 18. However, there is an outside shot the 76ers can get a second-round pick for Bogut in addition to the two they'll likely receive from Dallas by flipping him to another team before the deadline.
The downside for Philadelphia is this trade might mean committing to Jahlil Okafor as the backup to Embiid. Okafor hasn't yet been good enough to justify that role. According to NBA.com/Stats, the 76ers have been outscored by 15.9 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court this season. That explains Okafor's minus-5.3 estimated impact per 100 possessions by ESPN's real plus-minus, the league's second-worst mark.
My research into similar RPM laggards showed it's unlikely Okafor develops enough to become nearly as good as Noel, and while that doesn't matter this year, it could hurt Philadelphia's chances of contending for a playoff spot next season as their young talent develops. If the Sixers plan to continue exploring Okafor trades and use Richaun Holmes as their backup center, I'd like this trade a lot more from their standpoint.