It's a fever dream for fans of the Boston Celtics. Rumors linking Boston to a pair of star players, Jimmy Butler of the Chicago Bulls and Paul George of the Indiana Pacers, are circulating in advance of Thursday's NBA trade deadline.
While odds are both players will end up staying put for now, let's suspend disbelief and imagine that both teams would trade their star wing for identical packages along the lines of the one I outlined the Celtics offering for Butler in Tuesday's analysis of his value.
If it were truly Boston's choice, should they pick Butler or George?
The case for Butler
Simply put, Butler has been the better player in 2016-17. Quietly, Butler has moved into second in the NBA in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) ratings this season. His estimated plus-6.8 impact per 100 possessions puts him behind only LA Clippers point guard Chris Paul.
Butler's box-score stats aren't quite that strong, but he's still putting together a far better season than George and one of the best by any Eastern Conference player. Butler has substantially increased his share of the Bulls' offense for the fifth consecutive season. The former role player who finished just 14.6 percent of the team's plays in 2012-13 is now the Bulls' go-to guy, finishing nearly twice that many (27.2 percent) this season.
Remarkably, Butler has managed this transformation at no cost to his efficiency. In fact, his .589 true shooting percentage this season would be a career high. (Butler had a .583 true shooting percentage in 2014-15.) He also has improved his ability to create for others.
Though George has a similar usage rate and marginally worse true shooting percentage, Butler rates as a far better offensive player because of his superior assist rate (4.9 assists per 36 minutes as compared to 3.3 for George) and more sure-handed play. Despite handling the ball more, Butler averages fewer turnovers per 36 minutes (2.1) than George (2.9).
The case for George
A year ago, George clearly would have been considered the better of the two players. He was voted to the All-NBA third team, while Butler was a fringe contender. So taking a longer view of their performance closes the gap considerably, though Butler still has the better multiyear RPM score.
The stronger case for George, then, is that Butler's shot creation would be less valuable to the Celtics because they already have Isaiah Thomas. Any wing Boston adds probably will spend much of his time spotting up while Thomas runs pick-and-rolls, and George is more qualified to do so. He's a 36.7 percent career 3-point shooter who's making 38.3 percent of his 3s this season. Spot-up shooting is the weakest part of Butler's offense. He's a career 32.9 percent 3-point shooter who has been only marginally better this season (33.7 percent).
Because of his below-average outside shooting, Butler has tended to be less effective when paired with a ball-dominant point guard. As I noted when Chicago traded Derrick Rose, Butler was far more effective in 2015-16 when Rose was on the bench (putting up stats similar to his performance this season) than without him (when he used just 22.0 percent of the Bulls' plays with a .553 true shooting percentage).
George too is probably at his best with the ball in his hands -- as most stars are -- but though his value his decreased with his usage rate this season, he's actually posting the best true shooting percentage of his career (.570). Playing in Boston would probably help George move toward still more efficient shot selection.
Though both Butler and George are excellent defenders when locked in, George does have the slight advantage of superior size and length. He's two inches taller at 6-foot-9, and at the time of the NBA draft combine his wingspan (6-foot-11.25) measured almost four inches longer than Butler's (6-foot-7.5). That's a plus for an undersized Celtics team, particularly given the likelihood of playing either Butler or George at small forward on a regular basis.
The verdict
In a vacuum, I think Butler is the better player. For the Celtics specifically, George seems like the slightly better fit because of his superior shooting. I also have some questions about how happy Butler would be to defer to Thomas after finally getting a chance to carry the load offensively in Chicago this season. That's less of a concern with George.
There's one important factor we haven't discussed yet, however, and that's the two players' contracts. George holds a player option for 2018-19, allowing him to become a free agent in the summer of 2018. Butler is signed for an additional season with a 2019-20 player option. That distinction is enough to make Butler the clear favorite in my mind.
If the Celtics trade for George, they'll have to sweat out the possibility of him leaving via free agency 16 months later, with George's hometown Los Angeles Lakers as a prime contender to lure him away. And even if Boston can re-sign George, new contracts for him and potentially fellow free agents Thomas and Avery Bradley would push the Celtics far beyond the salary cap and possibly into the luxury tax.
There's also a risk of Butler leaving, with the Lakers again in play given that he makes his offseason home in L.A. However, acquiring Butler now would guarantee Boston three chances to make a playoff run with him before free agency. And Butler's smaller $19.8 million salary in 2018-19 would give the Celtics some additional flexibility for the summer of 2018 in they event Thomas signed elsewhere.
The difference in contracts outweighs George's superior fit. So in an ideal world where Boston had its pick of superstar wings, Butler would be my choice.