What odds do the New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have at landing a top-10 pick? What about the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers having a shot at the top two (and a chance to draft either Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball)?
Their playoffs odds may be slim, but the "races" for lottery position in the top-10, top-5 and top-2 of the 2017 draft are tight entering February.
At this point, some NBA teams are virtually out of the playoff hunt. While they still mathematically have a chance, winning nearly every remaining game and having specific competing teams uncharacteristically lose make the odds incredibly slim.
And that can be OK. No one wants to be in the dreaded no-man's land of the NBA that is the middle of the standings. If you aren't contending or at least firmly in the playoffs, many fans would prefer a high draft pick as the next best thing.
Brooklyn has a pretty strong lead on the best odds for the worst record in the league (9.2 percent greater chance at landing the No. 1 pick than any other team -- congratulations, Boston Celtics fans). So let's take a look at the other big races using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI).
I won't cover teams more than once, but you can assume that a team listed with decent odds to get a top-2 pick is more likely to get a top-5 pick than any of the teams covered in the top-5 race.
The race for top two
The Lakers started off the season 10-10 -- including a tremendous win against the Warriors -- before falling back to earth. Then the injury bug bit them, too. The Lakers have the most at risk here with their pick, as it is top-3 protected (if they fall outside the top three, the pick heads to Philly). BPI gives L.A. a 46.3 percent chance of landing in the top three and keeping the selection.
The 76ers went 10-5 in January. I repeat, 10-5! BPI gave them only a 0.7 percent chance of winning 10 or more of those games, since they were not favored in a single one. While that did hurt their draft odds (59.2 percent odds of top-3 entering January compared to 40.8 now), Philly's players and fans needed a streak like this. The Sixers still have a 90.3 percent chance of staying in the top six. And if the draft lottery were held today, two teams would need to jump past them into the top three to bump Philly to No. 6.
Things in Phoenix have gone pretty much as expected. Devin Booker had a slow shooting start, but his numbers are now looking better than last season (he shot 44.4 percent from 3 in January). Eric Bledsoe is having a great year, and the young guys are getting some run. It hasn't translated into wins, but with this team's timeline that's OK. A likely top-5 pick -- or better -- should be a nice addition.
The race for top five
The Magic want to make the playoffs now but are already virtually out of the race. They have less than a 0.1 percent chance at the postseason, per BPI. If they trade this year's pick -- as Zach Lowe proposed in a hypothetical Eric Bledsoe deal -- it'll likely be a pretty valuable one, as they have the best shot of this group at making the top five or jumping "up" a tier.
There is a lot of room for the Pelicans to choose their path from a personnel standpoint going forward. Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans will both be free agents in the summer, and New Orleans doesn't have to be picky about positional need in the draft. The Pels have a 5.9 percent chance at landing the No. 1 pick, which went pretty well for them last time.
DeMarcus Cousins and Sacramento desperately want to make the playoffs. The Kings are only 3.5 games back, but BPI gives them a minuscule 1.8 percent chance of actually cracking top eight in the West. The Kings could use whichever point guard is still available if they land a top-5 pick.
The Wolves are also teetering on the edge of a real playoff push. They are basically in the same spot as Sacramento -- only 3.5 games out of No. 8 in the West -- and could use a shakeup at the point guard position. The Wolves have a longer, more certain timeline and a better salary cap situation than the Kings, though.
The race for top 10 (or playoffs?)
Everything was set in place for Pat Riley to pull another one-year tank job. The Heat were 11-30 and then they won nine straight. Winning their past nine games had only a 0.5 percent chance of happening, according to BPI. Now they have a small chance of making the playoffs and are only three games back from the Hornets and Pistons for eighth-place. While this hot streak has repopulated Waiters Island, it doesn't seem like this franchise really needs a quick first-round exit more than a top-10 pick.
The Mavericks are probably in the toughest spot here. They are just 2.5 games out of the playoffs and have a 12.3 percent chance of getting in according to BPI. How many more years will Dirk Nowitzki play? What is the ceiling of this team with him on it? Given the uncertainty of their peers in the race for the No. 8 seed, I think there is room to wait and see. If by March it looks like the Blazers, Nuggets or some other team have it locked up, Dallas can easily dive down the standings by resting Nowitzki -- a move no one would question.
Last, but not least, there are the Knicks. On the one hand, you have veterans like Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah who are on timelines that indicate it's playoffs or bust. But then there is the youth contingent. Rookies Ron Baker and Willy Hernangomez and young star Kristaps Porzingis provide an optimistic outlook long-term. The Knicks have a real chance at getting into the playoffs -- only 1.5 games back -- but are just one injury or trade away from reversing course.
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