<
>

Who would Lakers and Celtics take if they win the draft lottery?

Would Markelle Fultz, the top-rated college player, look good in Celtics green or Lakers gold? Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Lakers and Celtics don't need to draft point guards -- or do they?

If they land the top two picks in the 2017 draft -- with the opportunity to draft star PGs like Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball -- what should they do?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton debate.


What if the Celtics get the top pick?

Kevin Pelton: A few weeks ago, we took a look at the teams that might fill their hole at point guard through a draft loaded with them. Now it's time to turn our attention to two teams that don't have major needs at point guard but might draft one anyway because of their chances of landing the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick: the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers, who square off Friday night in Boston.

Let's start with the Celtics, whose point guard Isaiah Thomas is in the midst of an incredible scoring spree that earned him Eastern Conference Player of the Month honors for January. Thanks to their 2013 trade, the Celtics and the Brooklyn Nets will swap picks this year, meaning the Celtics are overwhelmingly likely to go into the draft lottery with the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick. (ESPN's Basketball Power Index simulations show the Nets finishing with the league's worst record better than 99 percent of the time.)

Boston GM and president of basketball operations Danny Ainge was in Seattle on Wednesday to see Washington guard Markelle Fultz play Southern California, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's back for Saturday's showdown between Fultz and UCLA's Lonzo Ball, the top two players on your big board. If the Celtics get the top pick, do you think they'd add another Husky to their backcourt?

Chad Ford: Well, I was the one who infamously said the Celtics should select Kris Dunn in last year's draft. My brilliant rationale? He'd immediately be the best point guard on Boston's roster. Thomas rightfully took offense. The All-Star is having a phenomenal season, averaging nearly 30 points per game and 6.5 assists per game this season. Dunn? 3.8 PPG and 2.6 APG. So I'm not sure I have any business opining on the Celtics' point guard situation.

Boston passed on Dunn on draft night, opting instead to draft super-athletic wing Jaylen Brown. A Celtics source told me after the draft they really liked their point guards -- Thomas, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. The position wasn't a need, and they felt Brown had equal upside and was a better fit.

Will the same thinking apply this year? They should have the best odds for winning the draft lottery, and none of the top four guys on my board -- Fultz, Ball, Kansas wing Josh Jackson and NC State point guard Dennis Smith Jr. -- fit a need.

So what do they do? I think they'll go with Fultz, for three reasons. One, he's the best player in the draft, and the Celtics are trying to find the best talent. Two, while I'm not stupid enough to make the same argument again this year that Fultz would immediately be the best point guard on their team, neither Thomas nor Smart is the natural distributor that players like Fultz and Ball are. Finally, Fultz's ability to play the 2-guard and the shooting he would give their backcourt make him attractive as well. Coach Brad Stevens would be able to use Fultz in different ways.

Ball is the only guy whom I see the Celtics taking ahead of Fultz. He has a swagger and feel for the game that Ainge loves in prospects.

Who do you think they should take, Kevin?

Pelton: I would definitely go with one of the guards. Ball is interesting because I think he'll be most effective playing with a talented team, and the Celtics are far and away the best team that has a chance at drafting him. Still, I'd lean toward Fultz, which would set up an interesting decision on whether to re-sign Thomas as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018.

Thomas will be 29 when he hits free agency and eligible for a contract starting somewhere around $32 million a year depending on where the cap comes in. Given his height, losing quickness could turn Thomas back into the kind of instant-offense specialist off the bench he was in his first half-season with Boston. With a younger point guard in the fold, would the Celtics want to pay that kind of money for Thomas?

Ford: It's an interesting decision. Thomas has been so good this season that it seems hard to consider replacing him with a second-year player. The NBA provides a pretty steep learning curve, and even a college veteran like Dunn has shown major growing pains making the leap to the NBA.

Given where much of the rest of the roster is, I wouldn't expect the Celtics to go back into rebuilding mode -- not after they landed Al Horford last summer. I think they can have the best of both worlds: a veteran team ready to win now and a young combo of Fultz and Brown and another high-lottery pick coming next year (thank you, Billy King!) to rebuild for the future.

Pelton: Fortunately, Boston would have a year to evaluate a rookie point guard before making that decision -- although letting Thomas leave via free agency would mean getting nothing but possible cap space in return. More likely, I think the Celtics probably would look to re-sign Thomas and maybe consider trading him down the road as their draft pick matures.


What if the Lakers get the top pick?

Pelton: Let's turn our attention to the Lakers. How do you think they would evaluate the two point guards and other prospects assuming the front office stays as it is?

Ford: This is an easier call for me. While D'Angelo Russell is having a fine sophomore season for the Lakers, his ceiling is considerably lower than that of either Fultz or Ball in my opinion.

Years ago the Blazers opted against drafting Chris Paul because they had a young point guard they really liked, Sebastian Telfair. That didn't work out so great for them. While Russell has more talent than Telfair did, the moral of the story is that you take the best talent available -- especially when you are a young rebuilding team like the Lakers.

As to whom I'd choose? It's tough. I love both Fultz and Ball. However, my personal favorite player in this draft is Ball, and I think the L.A. native would be a star for the Lakers. Russell could conceivably move to 2-guard and give the Lakers two 6-foot-5 ball handlers.

I think this is a slam dunk. Kevin?

Pelton: I agree the Lakers should take one of the point guards no matter what. So far, spot-up shooting has probably been Russell's best offensive skill (he's made 43.2 percent of catch-and-shoot 3s this season, per SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats), so moving him off the ball wouldn't be the worst idea. And the size of Ball and Fultz makes it reasonable to play them alongside Russell defensively.

Like you, I'm intrigued by how Ball would fit in L.A. His unselfishness has been contagious for the UCLA offense and could help Luke Walton replicate the ball movement of the Golden State Warriors. Ball stands the better chance of unlocking the Lakers' other young talents and maximizing their potential.