Washington's Markelle Fultz and UCLA's Lonzo Ball -- No. 1 and No. 2 on Chad's Ford latest Big Board for the loaded 2017 NBA draft -- face off in a huge point guard matchup on Saturday night that could help determine who is the top pick in June.
After scouting both players closely, here's how they compare in the skills that matter most for NBA PGs.
The modern NBA point guard
With the game constantly evolving, the key characteristics at each NBA position are a moving target, as well.
The NBA has always been a league of great athletes, but recently it has become a "speed and space" game with a premium put on scoring at every position in order to open up the floor to enhance the great athleticism of the players. That is particularly true at point guard, where the rules on illegal contact on the dribbler above the free throw line put the offensive player in an advantageous situation. And it is why 10 of the top 25 scorers in the NBA are point guards.
The NBA values the following qualities at point guard:
1. Positional size
2. Shooting
3. Speed and quickness
4. Basketball IQ, anticipation and instincts
5. Toughness and competitiveness
6. Pick-and-roll acumen
This upcoming NBA draft is deep with PG prospects, including Fultz and Ball, who could potentially be the first two picks.
With the new rules, positional size at the 1 isn't as necessary (the average NBA starter is 6-foot-2), but it doesn't hurt that Fultz and Ball possess great size. So, let's take a look at how Fultz and Ball compare in the other categories.
Markelle Fultz | Washington Huskies
Year: Freshman
Height: 6-foot-4
Wingspan: 6-foot-9.75
Fultz has all of the attributes of the modern NBA point guard because the league values versatility and exploiting matchups is the biggest focus of offensive game plans. And while he may not have the elite athleticism of Russell Westbrook or John Wall, he is well above average in that area.
Fultz has the size, athleticism and scoring skill to be used both on and off the ball and has the passing instincts to facilitate a team's offense. But because he is a young player always on the attack, a team will need to live with his, at times, sloppy passing and turnovers.
An underrated skill in the NBA is being able to create your own shot, especially at the end of a shot clock. Fultz gets that done better than any other player in college basketball. He has proven this season that he excels in the open court, gets to the basket, finishes and can post up. His footwork to create mid-range jump shots is also above average.
Like most young players, he can continue to improve his shooting technique but there is not much to change. His high follow-through is sound and repeatable. He's making 44 percent of his 2-point jump shots so far and nearly 41 percent of his 3s. His 66 percent free throw shooting is a little troublesome but hopefully can be chalked up to a lack of concentration.
Fultz's pick-and-roll acumen is good but still a work in progress. Right now, his instincts are to attack and score rather than make the right read. Great NBA point guards are not concerned with their defender or the screener's man but the other three defenders in help positions.
For a smart, young player with a good work ethic like Fultz, improving in this area is a matter of countless repetitions in games and practices. They must have solutions for the sophisticated pick-and-roll coverages that they will see during the course of an NBA season. It's similar to a young quarterback learning to read pass coverages and blitzes in the NFL. It's an ongoing process.
Washington is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. In man-to-man defense, the Huskies switch out of convenience. They play a lot of passive 2-3 zone, too. This promotes a lot of standing around, ball watching and lack of intensity, which Fultz can be guilty of at times.
Right now, individual defense may not be Fultz's strength, yet he shows good alertness and quick hands when the opportunity presents itself. His size and athleticism once again should eventually be strengths. But there is no doubt that his NBA learning curve initially will be steep on the defensive end.
Fultz has a number of tremendous intangibles. The first one is his age. He will play his entire rookie season as a 19-year-old and that creates a potentially high ceiling for his improvement. Secondly, he is a high character young man who developed late in his high school career without the requisite hype of a typical high school All-American. Finally, playing on a young Huskies team, he has maintained his composure and maturity through a tough season as the team's leader.
Lonzo Ball | UCLA Bruins
Year: Freshman
Height: 6-foot-6
Wingspan: 6-foot-8
As a freshman, Ball has transformed the UCLA basketball program with his once-in-a-generation passing and vision. And his outside shooting, despite unorthodox form, is Stephen Curry-like, at times. His offensive skills and unselfish mindset have enticed NBA teams with thoughts of drafting the next Jason Kidd -- but with deep shooting range.
Like Fultz, Ball has great size for a point guard and, in my mind, more than enough athleticism to be an NBA starter and potentially an NBA All-Star. He also possesses open-court speed and quickness to thrive in the NBA's "space and pace" game.
But ultimately what makes Ball even quicker than just his athleticism are his supernatural basketball instincts. His passing ability is certainly on a par at the same stage as Hall of Famers Kidd and Magic Johnson. He sees plays before they fully develop and throws passes to teammates who don't even know that they are open.
And it's not just the spectacular passes that are impressive. He throws nearly every pass with timing, vision and touch and leads teammates into an open shot. He makes the "lay it out front" pass in transition, post feeds and simple passes in half-court offense with equal effectiveness.
While there have been questions about Ball's shooting form, it has proven to be highly accurate and, like Curry, extends beyond NBA range. So far he has made 42 percent of his 128 3-point attempts.
Ball's shot starts on the left side of his body but he has a high follow-though that finishes in the same place as a typical right-handed shooter. In addition, he possesses a quick release and the size to counter a good defender. He also has the step-back footwork to create separation from the defense that is second nature to him.
Fooling with Jim Furyk's golf swing would be foolish and, likewise, no NBA team will fool with Ball's shooting form.
One adjustment Ball will make in the NBA will be in learning to run pick-and-roll offense. UCLA's pick-and-roll schemes are rudimentary compared to what Ball will learn in his first NBA training camp. In fact, pick-and-roll has been only seven percent of the Bruins' offense this season, according to Synergy Sports Technology.
Like Fultz, Ball will get hundreds and, eventually, thousands of repetitions in this aspect of NBA offense. Surprisingly, for someone with a fabulous basketball IQ, Ball struggles to create indecision at the point of the screen on the part of the two defenders and often settles for the deep jump shot. In time, he will learn to take on both, creating a help situation where he can find the open teammate as the defense rotates to cover the screener's defender.
There is some concern that Ball has an underdeveloped midrange game that accounts for a very small percentage of his own offense. But in the NBA, there is more of an emphasis on scoring at the rim and, of course, shooting the 3. The outside shooting seems to be taken care of and he is making 76 percent of his shots at the rim, but many of those come in transition. He can definitely improve his finishing at the rim in half-court situations.
Ball is not yet an elite defender, in part because he has average NBA lateral quickness. But he does possess size and very good anticipation instincts. He has gotten easy baskets running through passing lanes all season. So like Fultz and most rookies in the NBA, he has promise but will be a work in progress on that end of the floor.
Fultz or Ball?
While I think both players will be excellent NBA guards and potentially All-Star-level players, I would take Fultz over Ball mainly because I believe he can be an elite scoring threat from every part of the floor. And he may be the second-best passer in this draft, although it's not evident because he is forced to score so much for the Huskies.
To dominate the way he has as an 18-year-old is rare. We are watching an incredible combination of skill, speed, athleticism, shooting, feel, motor and instincts. Fultz has a lot of room to improve, but he most likely will.