Will the Los Angeles Lakers keep their first-round pick in the 2017 draft or give it up to the Philadelphia 76ers? And with the Lakers and Sacramento Kings potentially boosting Philly's odds of multiple top-10 picks, what's the best-case scenario for the Sixers and the chances it happens?
The Sixers hosted the Lakers Friday night, and the two teams happen to have two of the biggest shifts in ESPN's Basketball Power Index over the past couple of weeks. With Philly playing better and L.A. falling further out of playoff contention, let's use BPI to project the draft scenarios for both teams.
Pick swaps, protections and more
You might remember that Philly got a protected Lakers pick in the three-team trade that sent Michael Carter-Williams to the Milwaukee Bucks and Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns in 2015. If the pick lands outside the top three in the 2017 draft, then the Sixers get it. If not, the Sixers get L.A.'s unprotected first-round pick in 2018.
So what do the Kings have to do with this? That's a little more complicated, but in a nutshell, another trade, this one between the Sixers and Kings, improves Philadelphia's odds of getting the No. 1 pick.
Philly has swap rights with Sacramento within the top 10. So, for example, if Sacramento lands the No. 1 pick and Philly gets No. 2, then the Sixers would flip selections with the Kings. This gives the Sixers' odds a nice little boost to land at No. 1 or in the top three.
(If Sacramento's pick is outside the top 10, then there are no swap rights with Philly and the pick goes to the Chicago Bulls. Also, if L.A. gives up its first-rounder to Philly in 2017, then it owes its 2019 first-rounder to the Orlando Magic. If the Lakers keep the pick, the Magic get L.A.'s 2017 and 2018 second-round picks.)
Now that we have the basics down, what does BPI project?
Current BPI projections
Back on Nov. 12, the Lakers defeated the New Orleans Pelicans on the road by 27 points, held a 6-4 record and had a 40.2 percent chance to make the playoffs, per BPI. They also had a 9 percent chance of holding on to a draft pick in the top three. But since then, they've gone 4-14 and are currently on an eight-game losing streak.
The Lakers have the biggest slip in BPI over the past two weeks, dropping 2.4 points from their overall rating, and BPI now projects their final record to be 27-55, fourth worst in the league. The odds that Philly will get the pick have dropped from 91 percent down to 66.6 percent, but that's not all bad news for the Sixers (or good news for the Lakers and their 33.4 percent chance of keeping the pick).
While the overall chances of Philly receiving L.A.'s pick have dipped, the potential value of the pick has risen. The Lakers' expected draft position per BPI is 4.8, meaning the most likely scenario right now is that the Sixers get the No. 4 or No. 5 pick from L.A. (literally the best-case scenario for fans of "The Process" who want the Sixers to have as many lottery picks as possible in the 2017 draft). BPI gives the Lakers' pick a 61.3 percent chance of being in the top five and 98.3 percent chance of being in the top 10.
The Lakers would have to continue their slide to become more likely than not to keep their pick. The Suns, Nets and Sixers are all projected to finish with worse records than the Lakers, with the Sixers and Nets (but really the Celtics, via more pick-swap fun) both having better than a 50 percent chance to land in the top three and Phoenix having a 40.6 percent chance.
Multiple top-10 picks for Philly?
The Sixers don't quite have a repeat of their dream 2015 lottery scenario when there was a minuscule chance Philly ended up with the No. 1, No. 6 and No. 11 picks, but things are still looking good for 2017 so far.
The expected position for their pick is 3.1, per BPI, but that's the best spot in the league right now (Brooklyn is at 3.2, and Phoenix is at 4.1). The Sixers have a 20.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, a 55.8 percent chance at landing in the top three and a 95.4 percent at top five -- with their own pick.
The Kings also have a 66.1 percent chance of landing in the top 10, which would open up the possibility of the pick swap with Philly. Sacramento has a 3.0 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick -- a pick that would go to the Sixers, as we mentioned earlier (and Sacramento would get Philly's pick).
Add all that to Philly's 66.6 percent chance of getting the Lakers' pick (one that is 98.3 percent likely to be in the top 10), and the Sixers have good reason to already look forward to lottery and draft night. (And, don't forget, if the Kings and Sixers both draw top-three picks, that leaves only one spot for the Lakers to keep theirs, helping Philly's odds even more.)
During this Lakers' losing streak, the Sixers have actually been trending slightly upward. Philly has the fourth-largest increase in BPI rating over the past two weeks. The Sixers also posted the second-biggest upset of the season on Sunday, per BPI, beating the Pistons in a game when they were given only an 11.8 percent chance to win. However, even after bumping their rating by almost a point, the Sixers still have a virtually zero percent chance of making the playoffs, according to BPI.
The Lakers' playoff chances sit at 0.1 percent, and the Kings are at 6.0 percent. That doesn't mean there isn't still a lot on the line, though. Pingpong ball combos hang in the balance.
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