How will Paul George, Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis and the rest of the Indiana Pacers fare in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Jeff Teague
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
Age: 28
Scouting report
+ Quick, explosive point guard took a step back after All-Star 2015
+ Gets to the rim in pick-and-roll, but off-the-dribble J is suspect
+ Will regress on catch-and-shoot 3s, average intensity on D
Analysis
For many in Indiana, the trade of George Hill for Teague was a no-brainer. A younger guard who was an All-Star in 2015 for a player with a career average of 11.3 points per game? Easy money. But Teague's fit in Indiana might not be as seamless as it would appear. For starters, Hill was an elite defender, able to take the opposition's best threat at either guard position. Neither Teague nor Monta Ellis is a plus option in that role; Teague certainly won't be shutting down the likes of Kyle Lowry in the playoffs as Hill did.
Teague has provided more as an on-ball playmaker in his career than Hill, but his fit with Paul George and, in particular, Ellis could be a concern, because both also like the ball in their hands. Teague did drain a career-high 40.0 percent from downtown in 2015-16, including a scalding 49.6 percent on his limited catch-and-shoot 3s. Those numbers are a massive improvement from his previous norms though, so a regression could be coming even if Teague's increased willingness to take 3s was a positive sign.
Despite the improved jump-shooting, Teague played much worse than he did in his banner 2014-15 campaign, perhaps in part because of a partially torn patellar tendon he revealed on his Instagram page in June. Teague's ability to finish inside was the main culprit. He looked notably less spry, dropping from 20 dunks to four, shooting worse at the rim and on floaters and getting to the foul line less. Prospects for a return to the heights of 2014-15 are mixed; he'll be over the injury but also entering his late 20s as a short point guard. He ranked only 28th among point guards in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus, a fall from 16th the year before.
At his best, Teague is a waterbug point guard who likes to drive off the pick-and-roll and finish with touch around the rim. He could benefit from shooting more shots with his left when he drives that way, as he often brings it right back to the defense to finish. Though not a pure point guard at heart, Teague refined his playmaking ability under Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta.
In the playoffs, opponents such as Cleveland have had success either going under on Teague's pick-and-rolls or switching them. Either tactic is designed to expose his jump shot, and he has been unable to make teams pay in the playoff crucible. On defense, Teague is about average for a point guard. He has quick feet and can get around screens, but lacks the size to challenge shooters from behind if he gets picked off. He was also protected by the Hawks' defensive scheme, which trapped pick-and-roll ball handlers so he didn't have to get over as many screens.
Monta Ellis
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
Age: 31
Scouting report
+ Once-elite slasher's athleticism on the wane
+ Grows ever more reliant on mid-range game, not comfortable from 3
+ One of the league's worst SGs on D, tiny wingspan and lacks focus
Analysis
Ellis has long been known among statheads as one of the league's most overrated players because of his inefficiency, but there was a time he was on a path to being one of the most effective scorers in the NBA. The season after the Warriors' "We Believe" 2007 season, Ellis shot 53.1 percent from the field with a .580 true shooting percentage. He took 42.6 percent of his shots at the rim back then, often in breathtaking fashion. Then Baron Davis left in free agency, and Ellis ripped up his ankle driving a moped in the offseason and was never the same. His usage skyrocketed, but his efficiency cratered, and he never had the same burst attacking the basket.
Ellis experienced a renaissance in Dallas playing off Dirk Nowitzki, but even then was never above the league average in efficiency. The four-year, $44 million signing with Indiana was the first indication of a new Pacers philosophy: boosting the offense by bringing together as many players with high points-per-game averages as possible. Playing his first year on a spacing-challenged Pacers offense, Ellis dipped to the worst season of his career since he was a 20-year-old rookie. He took a career-worst percentage of shots at the rim and more jumpers outside 16 feet than ever. His career .313 3-point shooting shows no signs of improving, and he got to the foul line at a below-average rate. Now 31, a reversal of these worrying trends is unlikely.
While many players boost their efficiency moving into a smaller role as they age, Ellis is ill-suited to do so, because he is really only effective with the ball in his hands, a poor match with other scorers such as George, Teague, and Thaddeus Young. The fit is no better on defense, where he is a minus defender at either guard position because he lacks length and focus. Ellis is a force in the passing lanes, although many of his steals result from gambles that can fail just as often.
Ellis is more suited for a bench role, but the Pacers seem committed to starting him rather than C.J. Miles. His other backup, Rodney Stuckey, shares Ellis' weaknesses. So Ellis will probably start for now, but the Pacers could really benefit from adding a shooter at his position to balance the starting lineup.
Paul George
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Elite two-way wing brings it on both ends like few others
+ Picked up right where he left off in last healthy season before traumatic broken leg
+ Locks up wing scorers, lesser athletes have no chance to score on him
Analysis
George returned in full force in 2015-16 from his horrific broken leg after a brief cameo at the end of the preceding season. With a summer to work back to full strength, he was as good as ever. His brilliant playoff performance against the Toronto Raptors solidified his standing as perhaps the East's best two-way wing. George is on the short list of players, along with Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, who can be the primary creator on offense while shutting down the opponent's best wing threat.
The overall statistical resemblance to his 2013-14 season was uncanny, right down to the unsustainably hot shooting the first month of the year. That said, George's game has changed a bit. Most noticeable is the decline in his otherworldly leaping. He doesn't do Vince Carter-like reverse 360s on the break anymore and threw down fewer than half as many dunks as he did in his last healthy season. But George improved as a pick-and-roll operator and saw slight bumps in his assist rate and usage. He also added a useful pump fake on wing isos that got him to the line a bit more. Oddly, George has never been a particularly effective finisher on non-dunks around the basket, and he annually shoots around the league average at the rim.
George is capable of some unbelievable defensive performances, especially when locked in during the playoffs (DeMar DeRozan is probably still having nightmares about him). He was measured at 6-foot-9 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan when drafted in 2010 and is said to have grown since then. George can guard any perimeter position and is as adept at all defensive aspects. He uses his quick feet and hands to lock down in isolation, crashes into the paint and scurries back to shooters by the time the ball is swung and slithers around screens to contest jumpers. George has also filled out enough that backing him down isn't really an option anymore either for wings.
SCHOENE foresees an uptick in efficiency for George this season but a decline in usage with the arrival of scorers such as Teague and Jefferson, plus Turner taking the place of non-scorer Ian Mahinmi in the starting lineup. It remains to be seen whether George will or should reduce his role, because he is still probably the most efficient creator the Pacers have.
Thaddeus Young
Position: Forward
Experience: 9 years
Age: 28
Scouting report
+ Smooth lefty PF excels at finding cracks in the defense for short-range hooks and floaters
+ Long-range game never developed, operates mostly around the basket
+ NBA evolved to fit his combo forward skills on D, good on switches
Analysis
The Pacers acquired Young in a draft-day deal with the Brooklyn Nets for the 20th pick, which became Caris LeVert. Under contract for at least two more years at just over $14 million per season with a player option for a third, Young should be a solid starter at power forward. Playing Young as the starting 4 will allow the Pacers to play smaller and quicker, although like with many of their acquisitions, Young's ability to play off the ball is in question.
On offense, Young's smooth game allows him to slither into the lane after a dribble or two off the catch. He has a soft touch on floaters and hooks in the lane even when he can't get all the way to the rim, although he gets blocked a lot going up on the right side, because he never shoots a righty layup. Young will throw up some pump fakes in the lane as well, but again nearly always spins back to his left hand. His finishing game is more about finesse than power, so he rarely gets to the foul line.
Young's .380 3-point shooting on 50 attempts after being traded to Brooklyn in 2014-15 was an outlier, and he hit only 7-of-30 all of last year. He showed promise from beyond the arc in college and in his first few years as a pro, but abandoned 3-point attempts entirely under 3-averse Doug Collins as he entered his prime. The Pacers could really benefit from Young rediscovering his touch, but he took only 1.3 per game during the preseason, so more 3s do not appear to be in the offing.
Young fits much better on defense, where he is effective switching onto smaller players and has one of the best steal rates among power forwards. Once considered too thin for the 4, Young is much closer to the modern ideal now, when denying penetration at power forward is more important than post defense or even shot-blocking. In a full season alongside Brook Lopez, who is more of a box-out guy than rebound inhaler, Young shattered his career high with a 23.0 defensive rebound rate. That will probably regress back to his career norm in the teens this year.
Myles Turner
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 20
Scouting report
+ One of the best pure shot-blockers to come into the league in years
+ High, quick release on his J, but gets a little thirsty on long 2s
+ Needs to work on defensive positioning to anchor the defense
Analysis
The Texas product was a revelation as a rookie. He dropped to 11th in the 2015 draft after an up-and-down season at Texas amid concerns that his odd gait would cause injury. While he still runs in a bit of an awkward shuffle, work to strengthen his glutes has apparently alleviated the problem, and he made it through his rookie year unscathed aside from a broken hand. Turner's short-area quickness is underrated, and he materializes out of nowhere to block shots with his massive 7-foot-4 wingspan.
On offense, Turner has a nice, quick release that should extend to the 3-point line in time. For the moment though, he is a bit too keen on long 2s, although he can heat up out there at times. His post-ups too often end in settling for turnaround jumpers, even when he has the mismatch. Turner doesn't play physically on offense, and he rarely gets fouled and had a miniscule 5.0 percent offensive rebound rate. In fairness, he was often paired with another traditional big man who couldn't shoot, so there was an excuse for him spending so much time on the perimeter.
Turner has flashed more of an ability to attack the basket in space this preseason after recovering from a concussion. He will be the Pacers' main screener in pick-and-rolls this year, so that increased comfort moving toward the basket is encouraging.
While Turner has the tools to become an elite defensive center, it might not happen quite yet. Young bigs are typically bad defensively, and Turner's 0.25 defensive RPM was 48th among centers in 2015-16. He struggles moving his feet out on the floor in pick-and-roll defense and can be wrong-footed at times, which was highlighted down the stretch of bitter losses in Games 5 and 7 of the Toronto series. Although Al Jefferson will probably be worse defensively, Nate McMillan could look to finish some games with more of a veteran presence, especially if Turner gets into foul trouble.
Reserves
Al Jefferson
Position: Center
Experience: 12 years
Age: 31
Scouting report
+ Still making dudes look silly on post-ups
+ All right hand, but gets to his spot for money jump hook, rarely turns it over
+ Looks to have gained weight, liability in pick-and-roll and protecting the rim
Analysis
Jefferson's three-year, $30 million pact with Indiana (the third year is $4 million guaranteed) moves him into a bench role more appropriate to his skill set in the modern NBA. Although the game has moved away from ground-bound, post-up centers of his ilk, Jefferson can still get you buckets on the block and reliably tortures younger defenders. He uses his huge hands to extend on one of the game's most accurate jump hooks and also has a solid drop-step counter from his preferred left block. Jefferson used to be effective turning and facing for jab-step jumpers or drives from the mid-post, but that aspect of his game has waned alongside his quickness. The Mississippi native get very few offensive rebounds, but annually posts one of the lowest turnover rates among centers. He could be a better pick-and-roll screener; he usually rolls early for his own offense.
In Charlotte, Jefferson was indirectly responsible for burnishing Steve Clifford's reputation as a defensive genius; nobody could figure out how he built such a good D around the limited Jefferson. Big Al can't jump over the screen you're reading this on, and his mobility was further compromised as he appeared to gain weight while sidelined with a knee injury last season. An in-person viewing at a preseason game in New Orleans confirms Jefferson remains rather corpulent. He has to lay back on the pick-and-roll, but ball handlers can get up a head of steam and score right around him at the rim.
C.J. Miles
Position: Forward
Experience: 11 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Southpaw 3-point bomber looking to diversity his game
+ Couldn't hold up as a small-ball 4, more suited to defend wings
+ One of Pacers' few spot-up options, but takes too many off-balance looks
Analysis
Miles began the 2015-16 season as a starting forward with the Pacers' move to a small-ball style at the behest of Larry Bird and now-deposed coach Frank Vogel. While George complained about having to bang down low, in reality the task of guarding 4s usually fell to Miles. Miles averaged 15.9 points in November, but the new starting lineup played poorly. The Hill-Ellis-George-Miles-Mahinmi quintet had a minus-6.7 net rating in 333 minutes. Meanwhile, units with Lavoy Allen or Turner in Miles' stead at the 4 were some of the Pacers' best high-minute lineups. After the season, Miles noted that the banging down low took a toll, and he did miss 16 games because of injuries to his to his lower back, right ankle, left calf and right shoulder.
Miles' game revolves around his versatile jump shot. But it is perhaps too versatile; he is prone to taking off-balance spot-ups coming off screens to his right as he kicks his left leg out for balance. Miles also rarely drives and goes left every time when he does. Passing is not a major part of his game either, with only 1.5 assists per 36 minutes in his Pacers career, but one advantage of never passing is never turning it over either.
Because those units with him at power forward hemorrhaged points (at least by Pacers standards under Vogel), Miles' defensive RPM was 59th among small forwards. He isn't that bad in his normal role, with solid block and steal rates. He was 13th in defensive RPM the year before when he played exclusively on the wing.
Miles worked in the gym over the summer with an eye toward playing more power forward as needed and also diversifying his offensive game because he has been mostly a 3-point specialist. And his spot-up shooting would be a good complement to Teague and George as creators. But the plan appears to be that Miles will continue to back up both wing positions instead.
Rodney Stuckey
Position: Guard
Experience: 9 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Unsustainable 3-point shooting spike earned him big contract before inevitable regression
+ Likes to handle in pick-and-roll and gets to the foul line, but doesn't bring much off-ball
+ Defense is shaky aside from good strength, help D and execution not his strong suit
Analysis
After Stuckey thrived on a minimum contract during Indiana's injury-marred 2014-15, the Pacers elected to give the then-29 year-old a $21 million "two-plus-one" contract, utilizing precious cap space to do it because they didn't have his Bird rights. The Pacers apparently thought that season was a breakthrough, but instead it was an outlier. Stuckey hit 39.0 percent of his 141 3-point attempts after never having eclipsed 31.7 percent in his career. He proceeded to hit 24.1 percent of his 83 attempts in 2015-16.
With more scorers in the lineup and another year under his belt, Stuckey's usage declined to a career low. Perhaps worse, signing Ellis over the top of Stuckey (while also re-signing Stuckey) made the latter redundant, and Stuckey posted a minus-1.61 RPM. That contract is looking like an overpay as he enters his 30s. He's good enough on long 2s off the dribble that the defense can't go under pick-and-rolls with impunity, but he isn't a spot-up threat. Stuckey has always been a below-average finisher at the rim as well because he isn't a great leaper. Instead, he uses his strong body to draw contact and get to the line on his forays to the hoop.
On defense, he has good strength but has never provided much intensity or execution in the floor game, including on the glass.
Aaron Brooks
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
Age: 31
Scouting report
+ Diminutive shoot-first point guard relies on tough shot-making for value
+ Not a distributor, passes as a last resort
+ At 6-foot, size makes him a liability on defense
Analysis
Brooks looked to be emerging as a solid starting point guard in his age-25 season, when he won the 2009-10 Most Improved Player award. He was actually the centerpiece of a 2011 trade to Phoenix for Goran Dragic and a first-round pick, which later become Nikola Mirotic. But his career went downhill immediately thereafter. Brooks went to China during the lockout and has been on year-to-year contracts ever since. He provided effective play for the Bulls in 2014-15 on the strength of good 3-point shooting and a 25.0 percent usage rate, but that was not going to continue at age 31.
Never an efficient finisher at a rather dubiously listed 6-foot, Brooks slumped to 46.8 percent at the rim as his preferred high-archers dropped with less regularity. He'll still fire up 3-pointers off the dribble with his distinctive bow-legged, pigeon-toed takeoff and can shoot a team back into games at times. But Brooks thinks score-first and doesn't look for his teammates except as a last-ditch effort when trapped under the backboard on his drives.
On defense, Brooks has always struggled, without the type of peskiness and ball-hawking usually associated with small guards. He can usually survive on the second unit, but bigger point guards work him in the post. The Pacers signed Brooks to a one-year, $2.7 million deal to join the Larry Bird Points Per Game Brigade as the nominal backup point guard, and they will hope that he can keep it going as a rotation player for another year.
Lavoy Allen
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Steady rebounder and screen-setter
+ Not particularly explosive on either end, jumper limited to 18 feet and in
+ Works his way in coaches' favor, always plays more than you'd think
Analysis
Allen, not George or any of the Pacers' other stalwarts, had by far the best net rating among the Pacers' rotation players a year ago. The Pacers outscored opponents by 6.9 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the court, and units with him next to Mahinmi were particularly effective. In the playoffs it proved another story, as Frank Vogel competed with Dwane Casey to see who could get his starting power forward off the floor first at the start of each half.
Allen's biggest skill is offensive rebounding. The Pacers corralled 28.5 percent of their misses with Allen on the floor, by far the highest mark on the team. But aside from that, it is hard to say why Indiana scored its best with Allen on the floor in the regular season. He does excel in getting George open on pin-downs, but mostly stays out of the way on offense aside from that, with only a 13 percent usage rate.
Allen executes in help defense despite lacking quickness and leaping ability for a modern power forward, although he can struggle with stretchier players at times. With Jefferson and Young in the fold this year, Allen projects as a fourth big and perhaps more of a third center if the Pacers elect to play small on the second unit. But Allen always seems to find his way on the floor as a coach's favorite; perhaps Nate McMillan will become the latest to appreciate his dirty-work game.
Joe Young
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard will need to improve his shot-making to carve out a career
+ Playmaking a work in progress
+ Undersized on defense without exceptional athleticism
Analysis
The acquisition of Brooks to likely play ahead of Young was interesting, because Brooks is a model for Young's potential success in the league. Both are Oregon products with shoot-first reputations but point guard size. Young impressed with his shot creation in his first summer league, but showed less this summer and preseason as he looked to expand his game as a playmaker. The climb for minutes appears steep with Brooks and perhaps Ellis ahead of him on the depth chart as backup point guards.
Young likes to run pick-and-rolls for his own offense and pull up from deep on occasion, but hasn't hit shots in his limited NBA, D-League, summer, and preseason action. SCHOENE predicts only 47.7 percent true shooting and 30.7 percent from 3-point range this season. If Young can't deliver on his primary skill of scoring the ball, it won't matter if he can improve in other areas. Young also isn't a plus defender, because he's undersized without great quickness or intensity. At 24, he needs to make strides this year to establish his career.
Kevin Seraphin
Position: Center
Experience: 6 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Burly center isn't quite as tough as size suggests
+ Tries to post up too much, would do better to focus on playing a role
+ Protects the rim when in position, but footspeed slowing as he's gained weight
Analysis
Seraphin had moments as a quality backup center who provided bulk and rim protection in his years with the Wizards, but now appears to be a fringe piece on his second straight one-year deal with a new team.
On offense Seraphin prefers to post up more than he really should. He will go to a shaky right-handed jump hook every time, even at extreme range. For his career only 60.8 percent of his field goals are assisted, quite low for a center few view as a shot-creator. Seraphin did benefit from the triangle offense a year ago in New York, nearly tripling his career rate of assists per 36 minutes to a solid 3.2. But one suspects Indiana will not be taking advantage of his newfound generosity with all the on-ball scorers on the team. The triangle offense put Seraphin in position to pass, but also took him away from the basket to the tune of a career-low 6.5 percent offensive rebound rate. Seraphin isn't a great pick-and-roll threat either, since he doesn't have a ton of bounce or mobility.
Defensively, Seraphin can block some shots and managed a career-high 5.2 percent block rate in his 526 minutes for the Knicks. But he is a little slow out on the floor in pick-and-roll defense.
All in all, Seraphin doesn't quite take enough advantage of his size to be a quality backup center. And it doesn't help that he looked heavy when I saw him in person this preseason. He will probably languish at fourth on the center depth chart behind Allen.
Glenn Robinson III
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Athletic dunker looking to do more with his athleticism
+ Hits his limited 3s, but must improve 2-point shooting with better shot selection
+ Floor game lags behind his tools, small-ball 4 could be path to playing time
Analysis
Robinson is an ostensible athlete working on his 3-and-D game. And he showed at least some signs in his 508 minutes last year, hitting 14 of his 37 3s. SCHOENE foresees an above-average 37.3 percent from downtown this year. But he shot an ugly 44.7 percent on 2s, fueled by 28.6 percent shooting on 2s outside the paint. Robinson will get up for some alley-oops along the baseline and get out in transition; 15 of his 51 made field goals on the year were dunks. If he can turn those long 2s into more spot-up 3s and find more opportunistic cuts to the rim, the Pacers could have a player.
Unfortunately, the rest of his game hasn't rounded out yet. Disappointingly, Robinson shows little evidence of his athleticism in the floor game and isn't an especially prolific in rebounds, blocks or steals for a theoretical energy guy. Robinson is under contract for a guaranteed minimum deal this year, and next year is non-guaranteed until July 1, 2017. But with so many guards and wings ahead of him in the rotation, it seems unlikely he'll see much run unless injuries befall the Pacers or they really embrace small-ball. Indiana does lack an obvious small-ball power forward, so that might be his best path to playing time.
Georges Niang
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Knows how to play, and better with his athleticism
+ Showing signs of being a quality 3-point shooter
+ Smarts might not be enough to hold up on D
Analysis
Niang is perhaps the other contender for a backup stretch 4 role. The Iowa State product is exceptionally unathletic for a power forward, with below-average wingspan (6-foot-10) and standing reach (8-foot-7) for the position. But the Pacers saw enough to draft him with the 50th pick and guarantee him about $100,000 more than the minimum this year in exchange for two more non-guaranteed minimum years on the back end of his deal.
The odds are against him, but Niang has the air of a player who sticks in the league because he knows how to play and can hit shots. Niang had an excellent preseason in limited minutes, logging an 18.7 PER and hitting over 40 percent of his 3s. He has some ballhandling skills on the perimeter and a knack for finishing at the rim despite a total inability to get off the ground. Think of his game as a cross between Jared Dudley and Brian Cardinal, with his 3-pointer resembling Cardinal's glacial but accurate set-shot delivery.
On defense, Niang holds up OK in the post and knows when to help, but won't block any shots or slide with quicker players on the perimeter. He could benefit from improving his body composition, although his thick frame will probably allow him to go only so far in that regard.
Rakeem Christmas
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Athletic, long-armed center struggled in D-League
+ Not an elite rebounder or an efficient scorer
+ Buried on depth chart, faces tough road to playing time at 24
Analysis
Christmas is only 6-foot-9, but his massive 7-foot-5 wingspan and 9-foot-3 standing reach give him the size to theoretically play center on the second unit. Unfortunately for Christmas, Indiana doesn't have a fifth unit, because that's where he sits on the center depth chart at the moment. He played only 15 minutes in preseason, although he was hampered by a sore knee early in camp. That followed only six NBA minutes all last season; he spent most of his year in the D-League with Fort Wayne.
Christmas' 48 games in Fort Wayne at age 24 did not augur well for his NBA success. He blocked shots well, but managed only a 14.29 PER. Christmas' 47.3 2-point shooting and middling offensive rebounding were particularly disappointing in a league with few bigs matching his physical tools.