How will John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and the Magic do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
John Wall
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Outstanding athletic point guard, terror in transition, serves up corner 3s on a platter
+ Shaky jump shot and high turnover rate
+ Once-great defender took step back last season, still best shot-blocking PG in NBA history
Analysis
After the bitter disappointment of a playoff elimination while Wall was hampered by a broken wrist, expectations were high for him to build on a stellar 2014-15 and vault into the top-10 players in the league. It didn't happen that way. Rather than becoming a monster in the Wizards' new space and pace system, Wall was hampered by knee issues and regressed on defense as part of a larger Wizards collapse on that end. Wall was shut down when the Wizards' scant playoff hopes were dashed at the end of the season. He eventually had two surgeries, one to remove calcium deposits from his left patellar tendon and a less serious arthroscopic lavage on his right knee. Wall has declared himself 100 percent to start the season and looked good in preseason.
At full power, Wall is the league's second-most athletic point guard, trailing only Russell Westbrook. He is a monster in transition, and would have won the dunk contest the year he entered if the league had it not gone to a weird conference format that year. But what truly makes Wall special is his vision out of the pick-and-roll. Every year, it seems a wing who joins the Wiz has his best 3-point shooting season thanks to Wall. He is especially adept at forcing help and creating spotups for more valuable corner 3s.
Wall's two major weaknesses are shooting and turnovers. He made incremental improvements in both areas last year, bumping his 3-point percentage to 35.1. But Wall is by no means a natural shooter. He naturally takes a set shot, and is only really comfortable shooting jump shots off the dribble going left-to-right to pull up near the right elbow. And despite the rise in 3-point rate and accuracy, his overall efficiency declined because he got to the line less. At 26 and coming off knee surgery, that trend is unlikely to reverse. Wall is going to have to take and make a lot more 3s to boost his true shooting percentage to league average for the first time in his career, and those shots will be there for him because opponents prefer to go under on the pick-and-roll.
On D, Wall regressed from fourth among point guards in defensive RPM to 15th, with the knees and the deterioration of the Wizards' defensive culture in the final year of the Randy Wittman era perhaps equally to blame. At his peak, Wall's length and athleticism allows him to squeeze over picks and bother would-be shooters from behind, allowing the Wizards' bigs to lay back near the basket without fear of giving up an open midrange jumper. He also is the best rim-protecting point guard ever, regularly swallowing up unsuspecting guards who try to score on him when he is back in transition.
Wall's development over the next few years is one of the key questions for a Washington team with little flexibility going forward. As a relative non-shooter coming off knee surgery at 26, it's possible he has already had his best years. But one hopes new highs are ahead if he can improve his shot before those otherworldly athletic gifts begin to wane.
Bradley Beal
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Knockdown shooter got more efficient, but could still stand to take more 3s
+ A little overstretched as a primary option on offense
+ Average, one-position defender, has struggled with stress reactions in career
Analysis
Despite playing an average of only 62 games during his first four seasons mainly because of recurring stress reactions in his right leg, Beal's five-year, $127.2 million maximum contract this offseason was fait accompli. The Wizards had long looked to use the extra space conferred by his low cap hold to facilitate the ill-fated #KD2DC plan, then re-sign Beal. The max might seem like an overpay in a vacuum, but Beal clearly would have had multiple max offers in restricted free agency had they not done so.
As John Wall would certainly agree based on his comments, the onus is now on Beal to live up to that contract for Washington to at least get back to the mid-tier of the East playoffs. And Beal did take steps forward in his game last year, posting a true shooting percentage above the league average for the first time via subtle increases in his 3-point and free throw rates. Those trends will need to continue if Beal is to improve toward All-Star status. He also shot much better on 2s, although that increased efficiency from midrange may not entirely be sustainable.
A disappointment for Beal so far in his career is his inability to carry the Wizards' offense when Wall is on the bench. Last year, the Wizards were minus 9.6 points per 100 possessions when Beal played and Wall sat, per NBAWowy.com.
Beal is good as a secondary pick-and-roll threat -- his shooting ability means defenders must go over the screen. But he doesn't quite have the vision or athleticism to really put pressure on the D in the initial action, meaning his pick-and-rolls end in a lot of pullup long 2s. Beal is outstanding at avoiding turnovers though.
On defense Beal pretty much only guards 2s. While he has had success defending shooters in the playoffs, average is probably his defensive ceiling. And ESPN's Real Plus-Minus would peg him far below that last season, with his minus 2.53 mark ranking 74th at his position. Beal's subpar rebounding also contributed to Washington's problems on the defensive glass a year ago.
Otto Porter
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+Came on throughout his first season as starting small forward
+Exclusively a play finisher, doesn't do much off the dribble
+Long but only an average on-ball defender, not a quick-twitch athlete
Analysis
After his emergence in the 2015 playoffs, and because the Wizards were spurned by incumbent Paul Pierce in free agency, Porter became the starting small forward. He shot poorly early in the season and looked as though he might be overstretched in that role, but improved his shooting throughout the year. His final numbers of .367 from downtown and .564 true shooting were solid marks.
Porter doesn't really have the explosion or shake to create off the dribble, as his attacking game is limited to one-dribble pull-ups for the most part. As a result, he rarely gets to the foul line, and has always been a lower-usage player during his career. Though he has improved from downtown, he isn't a natural shooter, limiting himself to wide-open spot-ups. He is effective with his long strides in transition, and likes to sneak along the baseline for easy layups. Because he limits himself to finishing plays others create, Porter turned it over on only 8.3 percent of the possessions he used a year ago.
The hope was that his 7-foot-1 wingspan would allow Porter to become a stopper, but he isn't that type of quick-twitch athlete and also lacks strength to deal with the best scoring small forwards. Porter has a solid steal rate and does well as a help defender, clocking in with the 11th-best defensive RPM at his position. But he rarely blocks shots and reacts slowly to shooters, failing to get his arms up in time for a good contest. As a result, Porter struggles guarding one-on-one. He also isn't the best at getting his long limbs around screens. Porter's average defense makes the long-term fit with Beal difficult since both are miscast guarding the best wing scorers. If Washington had more wing options, perhaps playing Porter more at the 4 could prove viable.
Markieff Morris
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Capable starting power forward with a nice midrange jumper
+ Too dependent on long 2s for efficiency
+ Actually tried in Washington, solid defender when engaged
Analysis
Is this the year Morris finally starts hitting 3s? That question holds the key to development for the career .323 shooter from deep, but SCHOENE does not foresee much improvement. Nevertheless, Morris is capable from midrange and gives the Wizards much more stretch at the 4 than they had in past years. On offense, Morris can do a bit of everything. He likes to post up on smaller players and has had one of the NBA's most effective turnaround jump shots at times in his career. He can be overly reliant on that midranger though, and is prone to bouts of inefficiency when those aren't falling because he rarely uses power moves to get to the foul line. Some opponents were able to neutralize the Wall/Morris pick-and-roll by switching, since Wall isn't the best one-on-one scorer and Morris proved unable to create efficient shots against smaller players.
Morris did really help the Wizards last year, and due to his great contract of $8 million per season over the next three years he appears to have been well worth trading the eventual No. 13 pick. After a miserable stint in Phoenix as he pouted his way out of town, Morris rebounded to near his career norms in Washington.
The Kansas product has good defensive tools and can do some switching on defense himself, but his effort and execution wane at times. Unlike his brother in Detroit, Morris is a reasonable rim-protector for a 4 to provide value on defense. Morris helped with some of the Wizards' rebounding issues, as they corralled 52.1 percent of the rebounds when he played and 48.9 percent without him.
Marcin Gortat
Position: Center
Experience: 9 years
Age: 32
Scouting report
+ Burly pick-and-roll center excels at catching and finishing on the move
+ Uses size to carve out space on the glass, solid post defender
+ Regrettably abandoned power alleys delineated Mohawk
Analysis
While the Wizards brought in Ian Mahinmi, his knee surgery will ensure Gortat will remain the starter for the time being. The Polish center is probably a better fit with Wall due to their pick-and-roll chemistry. While Gortat won't dunk on people anymore, he remains an underrated offensive center due to his screen-setting and ability to catch and finish on the move. He will also bust out postup hooks with both hands, although sometimes at too extreme a range. Gortat can also go to a fadeaway over his right shoulder, but he probably shouldn't be posting up anymore except on switches. He is a threat on the offensive glass, where he was the sole Wizard who did much last season; Washington rebounded an acceptable 23 percent of their misses with him on the court, but a pathetic 17.4 percent with him off.
Defensively, Gortat is difficult to post up against because of his strength. He provides some rim-protection, but his 16th-ranked defensive RPM among centers probably overstates his production at this point. Nimble in his younger days, Gortat is now best-suited hanging back on pick-and-rolls.
Gortat should be hitting the decline phase of his career in his early 30s, although he has less mileage on his tires than many since he backed up Dwight Howard in Orlando early in his career. While he and Mahinmi probably can't play together, the signing of the younger center should enable him to transition into a backup role as he plays out the remainder of the five-year, $60 million deal he inked in the summer of 2015. Which center closes games this year will depend on whether Scott Brooks prioritizes offense or defense down the stretch.
Reserves
Ian Mahinmi
Position: Center
Experience: 8 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Emerged as one of the league's best defensive centers
+ Versatile pick-and-roll defender with length to protect the rim
+ Limited offensively but had career year, shooting could regress
Analysis
Mahinmi was not the droid the Wizards empire was looking for when it cleared cap space this summer. But once Kevin Durant and Al Horford spurned their advances, Mahinmi might have been the best unrestricted free agent remaining on the market when the Wizards agreed to a four-year, $64 million contract on July 2. A defensive stalwart as a mobile rim-protector, Mahinmi emerged relatively late in his career as a starter on great defenses in Indiana, posting stellar defensive RPMs the past two seasons.
Once limited offensively, the Frenchman evolved on that end the past two seasons. He displayed better passing out of the pick-and-roll, improved his finishing in the paint, and even uncorked a few drives on occasion when the defense fell asleep. He also improved his free throw percentage back to respectability after an inexplicable .304 mark in 2014-15. Mahinmi started all 71 games he played, shattering his previous career high of 12. It is reasonable to expect some regression from Mahinmi after his career year at age 29, with his .480 shooting from 3-9 feet a particular candidate.
After experiencing left knee pain early in camp, Mahinmi underwent arthroscopic surgery on October 14 to address a partially torn medial meniscus. The 4-to-6 week timeline for recovery seems extremely optimistic. Few players return from meniscus surgery in less than six weeks, and those who have -- such as Metta World Peace and Brandon Roy -- have experienced additional complications.
Once Mahinmi returns, he should back up Gortat but also close some games depending on matchups.
Tomas Satoransky
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Tall, athletic point guard with nice pick-and-roll game
+ Ability to play off-ball a question due to jumper
+ Not especially long with a thin frame, could struggle to guard wings
Analysis
Satoransky impressed with his playmaking when I first saw him at the 2012 adidas Eurocamp. The Wizards apparently felt similarly, and made him the 32nd selection in that summer's draft.
Since then his body has filled out and he improved his jump shot to a degree, although he probably won't ever be a high volume shooter from 3 and is still vulnerable to sagging defenses. Satoransky has excellent vision and ballhandling for his size and can get downhill in the pick-and-roll, showcasing a great pick-and-roll chemistry with former Wizard Jan Vesely on the Czech national team. The hope is Satoransky will play primarily as a backup point guard, but also will merit minutes on the wing to alleviate depth concerns. There are some questions in the latter regard, since he may not shoot well enough to play off the ball. Satoransky might also be too thin to guard stronger wings, especially considering his average 6-foot-7 wingspan.
The Wizards signed the Czech to a reasonable three-year, $9 million contract, a duration that will keep him a restricted free agent at its conclusion. If Satoransky can emerge as a solid backup point guard, that contract will look like a steal compared to those handed out to established NBA veterans this offseason.
Trey Burke
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Highly drafted point guard looking for a new start in Washington
+ Improved last year, but playmaking game hasn't developed
+ Average athlete and undersized, backup-level athleticism
Analysis
Odd as it is to say for a former ninth pick who lost his job to two fringe players and was traded for a second-rounder, Trey Burke improved significantly in 2015-16. He improved his true shooting percentage from miserable to simply below average while using more plays. Burke's shooting was better from all areas on the floor, and he looked much better taking contact and finishing at the rim.
Burke never matured into a quality starter because he is undersized and lacks the athleticism to make up for it. He failed to build on the pick-and-roll skills that so intrigued at Michigan. Nevertheless, Burke still has potential as a backup provided he isn't asked to be the main scorer on a punchless second unit like in Utah. Burke does have an extremely low turnover rate in his favor, although he rarely gets to the foul line.
On defense, Burke improved from absolutely terrible to simply bad over his Utah stint, but he didn't kill the Jazz because they had quality defenders around him. Between Satoransky and Burke, the Wizards should be able to cobble together decent backup point guard play, although Burke's restricted free agency this summer complicates such an arrangement for the long term.
Kelly Oubre
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Long lefty looking to harness physical gifts
+ Developing 3-point shooter, not there yet but stroke shows promise
+ Hasn't succeeded in using his tools in the floor game, except on the glass
Analysis
Oubre had a pretty standard rookie season for a 20-year-old wing. He showed flashes of the athleticism that inspired the Wizards to surrender two second-rounders to move up from 19 to 15 in the 2015 draft to get him. But Oubre struggled from the field and made a lot of defensive mistakes. He played only 671 minutes, mostly when forced into duty because of injuries.
What got Oubre drafted was his 7-foot-2 wingspan and nuclear-powered right calf that leads to some destructive dunks in the open floor. Unfortunately, Oubre was not able to use his tools to great effect defensively, averaging only 1.2 steals and 0.4 blocks per 36 minutes. The Kansas product did grab a solid 18.4 percent of opponents' misses, showing the potential to play some stretch-4 next to Porter down the road. He shot only .316 from beyond the arc, but there is nothing wrong with Oubre's stroke. He should become a passable 3-point shooter in the next couple years.
The rest of Oubre's offensive game remains raw, as he is limited to straight-line drives in advantage situations. The southpaw could really benefit from discovering the heretofore unknown appendage dangling from the right side of his body. Nor is passing a part of Oubre's vocabulary at this point; he averaged a miniscule 0.7 assists per 36.
Due to the Wizards' limited depth at small forward, they would much prefer if Oubre were ready to play now. It is unclear if his shooting and defensive execution will allow him to contribute yet.
Andrew Nicholson
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Skilled scoring power forward who doesn't do much more
+ Force lacking from his game, slow afoot for his position, not much leaping ability
+ Shot a career high from 3, but doesn't get any offensive boards
Analysis
While he occasionally filled the chamber during Scott Skiles' rotation roulette in Orlando, Nicholson was essentially a forgotten man by the end of his tenure there. The Magic declined to extend him a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent, clearing the way for a four-year, $26 million signing in Washington that extends through the 26-year-old's prime.
Nicholson has always had scoring potential. The Canadian extended his game beyond the 3-point line last season, adding to a nice jump hook and solid midrange game. He is also a reasonable defensive rebounder.
But Nicholson's game lacks force and execution. He rarely gets on the offensive glass or to the foul line. On switches, he prefers finesse rather than power moves. Defensively he is slow in the pick-and-roll, and doesn't have much bounce protecting the rim. He exacerbates those weaknesses by failing to execute as a help defender.
Despite a move to the Wizards, Nicholson looked to be competing for backup power forward minutes with the same guy from Orlando, Jason Smith. But with a nice preseason, Smith filling in at backup center for Mahinmi, and Brooks' predilection for playing two bigs, Nicholson should have the backup power forward position all to himself early on.
Jason Smith
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Shooting big man from a bygone era
+ Limited power player, subpar rebounder and shot-blocker
+ Just took another long 2
Analysis
Smith does one thing and one thing only -- shoot long 2s. He took a ridiculous 65.2 percent of his shots as 2s beyond 16 feet. Smith hit a scorching 47.0 percent of those, right in line with what he's done the past five years. With most defenses calibrated to take away 3s and interior shots, Smith found space on spotups and pick-and-pops. He was not remotely shy about firing away, to the tune of a 22.1 percent usage rate. Smith had 88.8 percent of his 2s assisted, one of the highest rates in the league.
Almost none of those shots were inside though, where Smith is powerless. The 7-footer took only 13.7 percent of his shots at the rim, and had a mere four dunks all season. Because he jacks up a jumper as soon as he sees an opening, Smith at least avoids turning it over. And in fairness to Smith, he did play on an Orlando second unit that was often desperate for any kind of shot creation.
Despite the astronomical number of long 2s, Smith somehow took only 3.5 percent of his shots from downtown. It is unclear whether Smith is unwilling or unable to take his game beyond the arc, but if he did so it could revolutionize his efficiency. He will need to do that to have value, because he lacks the physical tools to defend either big position and has always been a liability on the boards.
The three-year, $15 million contract (with a third-year player option!) the Wizards bestowed upon Smith was rather puzzling for a 30-year-old who ranked 61st among power forwards in RPM.
Marcus Thornton
Position: Guard
Experience: 7
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Volume scorer isn't as loud these days
+ Will still get shots up, but can't get to the rim, has lost athleticism
+ Point guard sized, but not an effort guy, liability at either guard spot
Analysis
Thornton once looked like a rising star, the recipient of what appeared a reasonable five-year, $40 million deal from Sacramento in the 2011 offseason. Instead Thornton stagnated, and his once combustible scoring regressed to the point where his inability to do anything else made him unplayable.
The LSU product still gets up shots when he's in there, but his efficiency has been quite below average for some time now. Once a plus athlete who could get to the rim and score out of pick-and-roll, Thornton hasn't thrown down a dunk the past three seasons. He doesn't have the effort or athleticism to stay in front of point guards, and is undersized at the 2.
Those limitations added up to a one-year contract for the veterans' minimum this offseason in Washington, and unless injuries hit, Thornton should be limited to the Jannero Pargo Memorial Speculative Comeback role, trying to shoot the team back into a lost game when it no longer makes sense to play the starters.
Sheldon McClellan
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Undrafted, looking to establish himself as an energy wing
+ Not a pure shooter, but shot improved in college
Analysis
The Wizards cut two veterans with NBA experience, Jarrell Eddie and Johnnie O'Bryant, to keep three undrafted rookies. McClellan impressed me with his intensity as a rising senior at the 2015 adidas Nations camp. He may not be quite strong enough to defend bigger wings, but the Wizards do have a need for his skills if he can put it together on offense. He must have impressed in camp, because the Wizards retained him despite only believing him worthy of a $5,000 guarantee on the two-year, minimum contract he signed after summer league, per BasketballInsiders.com.
While not a natural shooter, McClellan improved in college and showed the capability to knock down 3s with his feet set. He probably won't be handling the ball at the NBA level, but he can straight-line drive and get out in transition. SCHOENE foresees slightly below-average shooting from 3, but his projected steal and rebound rates are lower than you'd like from an energy guy.
Daniel Ochefu
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Burly center with long arms, solid rebounder
+ Only an average athlete for the center position
+ Struggles to make a play on the move
Analysis
Reports have indicated that Ochefu made the team over Eddie in part because of the injury to Mahinmi. He has center size with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, and should be strong enough to play the position. Ochefu showed some ability to get into the post at Villanova, although he goes left shoulder for a jump hook every time. He isn't a natural offensive player, and doesn't project as a good pick-and-roll or transition finisher since he struggles to catch on the move.
On defense his long arms provide a deterrent in the lane, although he lacks the quickness or bounce to project as a good defensive center overall. He should be fine on the glass though, as he inhaled rebounds as Villanova's lone big during his career.
Ochefu has the longest contract of the three undrafted players on the roster, a three-year minimum pact that is only $50,000 guaranteed until the January 10 cut-down date this year, per BasketballInsiders.com.
Danuel House
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Athletic wing hasn't yet translated tools to the floor game
+ Shooting is questionable, regressed heavily as a senior
+ Old for his class, will need to show something right away
Analysis
House is on the squad because of his athleticism. He jumps out of the gym, but doesn't really have another NBA skill at the moment. While scouts had hope for him as a 3-and-D prospect after a shooting bump his junior year, he regressed badly as a senior from downtown. SCHOENE projects only 32.4 percent 3-point shooting as a rookie. House's steal and block rates are somewhat disappointing for such an athlete, nor is he much of a rebounder. At 23, House will have limited time to make good his athletic potential.
The Wizards guaranteed him $100,000 to come to camp, with the rest of his salary for this season guaranteeing on Jan. 10. Next year has a similar structure, $100,000 guaranteed if he remains on the roster past July 1, with the rest guaranteed as of Jan. 10, 2018, per BasketballInsiders.com.