How will Ben Simmons' foot injury impact the Philadelphia 76ers, his rookie of the year chances and his long-term development?
The No. 1 overall pick will undergo surgery in the next few days to repair a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot, ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported Saturday after the 76ers first disclosed the injury Friday.
Let's take a look at what it means if Simmons is sidelined through December or even January, as well as the long-term implications beyond this season.
What is the immediate impact on the Sixers?
In the short term, Simmons' absence might not affect Philadelphia much on the scoreboard. In fact, replacing his minutes over the first 30 games with more for a variety of frontcourt players (led by Jerami Grant, Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes) actually improves the 76ers' projection slightly using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) from 24.9 wins to 25.7.
Because Simmons is a rookie, he doesn't have an RPM projection. Instead, I use my projections for rookies based on their college stats to estimate his value on offense (minus-1.5 points per 100 possessions) and defense (minus-0.4 points per 100 possessions). The combined total is worse than Grant's minus-0.6 projection per 100 possessions.
If that sounds harsh, it's worth noting how uncommon it is for rookies to help their teams win (as measured by RPM), particularly ones as young as Simmons. Just three rookies who played more than a thousand minutes posted positive RPM ratings last season: Nikola Jokic (6.0), Kristaps Porzingis (2.5) and Karl-Anthony Towns (0.8). The previous season, No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins had a minus-1.7 RPM while winning rookie of the year.
Philadelphia is also well positioned to fill in for Simmons. While his absence won't do much to help ease a logjam at center with a healthy Joel Embiid and returning starters Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor (plus Holmes, who also plays some power forward), it does create more playing time for Grant, who started 52 games last season but figured to get squeezed out of this year's rotation. And Saric likewise projects better than Simmons during his rookie season based on his European play (minus-0.7 points per 100 possessions).
Could Simmons still win rookie of the year?
Simmons' injury might cost him a chance at winning rookie of the year. Since Patrick Ewing won in 1985-86, just one player has won the award while missing more than 15 games: Brandon Roy, in 2006-07, when he played just 57 games.
Surgery would almost certainly cost Simmons more than 15 games, and might cost him more than 25. At the same time, like Roy in 2006-07 -- who was one vote shy of winning unanimously -- Simmons might not have much competition because few other rookies are slated to play such a large role. Over the summer, Simmons got 35 of the 52 votes for rookie of the year from ESPN's summer forecast panel.
I noted a couple of years ago that virtually every rookie of the year winner has led all first-year players in combined points, rebounds and assists per game. Since the 1970s, Amar'e Stoudemire (who won over Yao Ming) is the only exception. Simmons is poised to dominate that metric this season.
Having cut his minutes to 28 per game, my SCHOENE projection system conservatively pegs Simmons to average 10.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, a total of 20.0. That leads all rookies in projected stats, with only Simmons' teammate Saric anywhere in close proximity.
Still, it's hard to imagine Simmons having a chance at rookie of the year if he's not back in the lineup before January. At that point, the missed time would likely outweigh his superior production. But if Simmons can make it back on schedule or ahead of time, his award hopes might not be dashed yet.
What is the long-term impact?
Of course, while it's a bummer for the 76ers and their fans to not have the No. 1 pick on the court, the real concern about this injury is not Simmons' absence in the short term but the potential impact on the rest of his career. That's where a possible Jones fracture is particularly problematic.
Of the 31 NBA players Rotowire's Jeff Stotts found had suffered fractured fifth metatarsals through October 2014, eight suffered recurrences of the injury. That's also happened with a pair of players who subsequently suffered Jones fractures: Kevin Durant and Cameron Payne.
On the plus side, sources told Stein that doctors believe Simmons' injury was acute -- the result of landing on a teammate's foot in practice -- rather than a stress fracture resulting from wear and tear.
And even some players who have suffered recurrences of fifth metatarsal fractures have gone on to productive NBA careers, like Brook Lopez and C.J. McCollum. To the extent the injury has actually hampered careers, it's typically been with more marginal prospects like Rodrigue Beaubois and Damion James who needed to be on the court to establish themselves as NBA players. That's certainly not the case with Simmons.
At the same time, like any other 20-year-old player, Simmons needs time on the court to develop. His absence also slows down the process of Philadelphia learning to play off Simmons' unique skills as a point forward -- though Saric can play a similar role in the meantime.
The bottom line: Simmons' injury is certainly a cause for concern, but it might turn out to be a blip on his road to NBA stardom.