- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Senior NBA Writer for ESPN.com
- ESPN Insider NBA Draft Analyst since 2002
- Writes ESPN's NBA Draft Top 100 and Lottery Mock Draft
- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
How will your team perform the next three seasons?
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 100 based on how well we expect each team to perform in the next three seasons.
To rank the 30 teams, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton to rate each team in each category.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each individual category, click here.
Here are our latest rankings:
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
The Warriors remain No. 1 for a third straight edition of the Future Power Rankings, and the gap between them and the No. 2 team just keeps increasing, even despite losing to the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals.
The Warriors already had the best roster in the NBA and then added perennial MVP candidate Kevin Durant to the mix. Yes, they suffered some losses -- including Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut -- but the addition of Durant more than makes up for that.
Their management score is also near perfect as GM Bob Myers and coach Steve Kerr make a potent pair. Their draft and money scores are poor, but those doesn't matter much for a team this good -- they don't need the help.
It will be a major disappointment if this Warriors team doesn't win at least two NBA championships in the next three years.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: No. 1)
The Cavaliers ended a 52-year drought without a major pro sports championship in Cleveland by rallying from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Warriors in last season's NBA Finals. Now the question is whether they can do it again.
Assuming the Cavaliers are ultimately able to re-sign starting shooting guard J.R. Smith, still a free agent, all the pieces are in place for Cleveland to repeat last season's success. There's only one problem, that being the possibility Golden State is even better after adding Kevin Durant.
Still, the Cavaliers remain heavy favorites to win the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future with LeBron James signed up for at least the next two seasons. While Cleveland is deep in the luxury tax and will get little help via the draft (having traded a lottery-protected 2018 first-round pick to Portland), only the Warriors have more talent on their current roster.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 2)
The Celtics hold steady at No. 3. That's high praise considering the two teams above them have met in the Finals the past two years.
Staying at No. 3 doesn't mean a lack of improvement. The team landed a major free agent in Al Horford, upping its roster ranking significantly from No. 15 to No. 5.
The Celtics continue to have a bounty of picks that places them only behind the 76ers in the draft category. We also continue to be bullish on their management, ranking the Celtics third thanks to one of the best coaches, Brad Stevens, and executives, Danny Ainge.
With so much flexibility to make trades and continue to add to their roster via free agency and the draft, we believe if anyone in the East is going to dislodge the Cavs, it's Boston.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 3)
The Spurs stay at No. 4 in our rankings despite losing face of the franchise Tim Duncan to retirement over the summer.
While there are very real concerns about the age of both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs have done an excellent job through the draft, trades and free agency to build an excellent young core for the future. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are the cornerstones, and adding a veteran like Pau Gasol mitigates the loss of Duncan.
As for the rest of the Spurs? Despite a lot of turnover in the front office, they still appear to have just about the best management in the NBA, and a culture that we believe will allow them to continue to be quite competitive going forward.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 4)
The Wolves take another leap this summer from No. 9 to No. 5, reflecting our belief that they have the best young roster in the NBA.
With No. 1 picks Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins already on the roster, the addition of Kris Dunn in the draft helped the Wolves move up to No. 4 in the players category.
And we believe that Tom Thibodeau's coaching will get the most out of Towns, Wiggins, Dunn and Zach LaVine -- Minnesota's management rank jumped to No. 8 with Thibs taking over.
The team is also well situated to be a player in free agency going forward, giving Minnesota more flexibility than most to continue to tinker with the roster. You have to be patient with young teams, but give the Wolves another year and they should start making noise in the West.
-- Chad Ford
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
The Jazz have generally fared well in the Future Power Rankings, in part because of Utah's savvy decision-making and patience. We think this is the season that patience starts to pay off and the Jazz move from rebuilding to contending.
The additions of veterans like George Hill and Joe Johnson this summer, combined with the ongoing development of their young players, give them great balance.
The Jazz have the talent, cap flexibility and draft picks to take another big leap in the next year or two as well.
No. 6 might seem high for a team that didn't make the playoffs last season, but we believe the Jazz will be one of the top four teams in the West as early as this spring.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 7)
The Clippers benefited from the hits the rest of the Western Conference took this summer. Durant's departure from Oklahoma City and Tim Duncan's retirement could make L.A. the top threat to the Warriors in the West.
Any long-term assessment of the Clippers must be tempered by their uncertain summer of 2017. Stars Blake Griffin and Chris Paul both have player options that could allow them to hit free agency, joining starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. Re-signing all three players would allow the Clippers to remain competitive, though it would mean locking in an aging core at high prices with little flexibility to add additional talent.
Still, that beats the alternative. Because of large cap holds for Griffin and Paul, the Clippers would still be capped out if only one of the two players left, making it difficult to find a replacement.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 10)
After an expensive offseason, Portland holds steady at No. 8 in the Future Power Rankings. Including an extension for C.J. McCollum that won't kick in until next summer, the Blazers handed out an amazing $320 million-plus in new contracts to retain restricted free agents Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard and add newcomers Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner.
Assuming owner Paul Allen is willing to foot a hefty luxury-tax bill in 2017-18, when Portland is already well over the projected tax line before dealing with starting center Mason Plumlee (a restricted free agent), the Blazers' core should be able to stay in the Western Conference mix for years to come. But if this season goes worse than expected, Portland might face some difficult choices about who stays and who goes to pare the tax bill.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 8)
This offseason marked a departure from Daryl Morey's usual M.O. as Rockets GM. Morey has prized the flexibility to add stars and emphasized avoiding bad contracts. After signing Ryan Anderson (four years, $80 million) and Eric Gordon (four years, $53 million) from the New Orleans Pelicans, Houston is unlikely to have max-level cap space any time soon.
The resulting roster should produce an elite offense under new head coach Mike D'Antoni, but might struggle to get enough stops to be competitive in the Western Conference.
On the plus side, the Rockets were able to renegotiate and extend the contract of All-Star shooting guard James Harden, which keeps him under team control through 2019. Now it's up to Harden to come into camp in shape and ready to commit at the defensive end, a problem last season. If he does, Houston could bounce back.
-- Chad Ford
Despite Toronto's run to the Eastern Conference finals, we were a bit skeptical before the offseason because the Raptors needed to re-sign DeMar DeRozan and find a way to replace free agent Bismack Biyombo. Consider Toronto two for two.
While DeRozan came at a high price ($137.5 million), he would have been difficult if not impossible to replace in free agency, and the Raptors got great value signing Jared Sullinger with their midlevel exception. Sullinger could back up starting center Jonas Valanciunas, as Biyombo did last season, or play alongside him.
The result is Toronto should battle the Celtics for second in the East this season, though the long-term outlook is still contingent on another All-Star guard hitting free agency -- Kyle Lowry, who has a player option for 2017-18. Lowry is the linchpin of the Raptors' offense, so they'll need to re-sign him next summer to stay in contention.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 17)
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
We aren't mind readers, and Kevin Durant proves it.
Last year, we moved the Thunder down to No. 9 over fears that Durant might bolt in the summer -- but then this spring we moved them back up to No. 5 based on evidence that Durant might decide to stick around. He didn't, and the Thunder are all the way down to No. 11 as a result.
They remain in the top half of the rankings because they still have a young team ready to contend for the playoffs, and an aggressive front office that remains one of the league's best.
Now that Russell Westbrook has re-signed and young players like Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis are aboard, we like their future. Still, there probably is no replacing Durant.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 5)
A turbulent Heat offseason appears to have closed the chapter of Miami's history led by stars Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Disappointed by the Heat's offer to him, Wade unexpectedly left for the Chicago Bulls. Meanwhile, Miami president Pat Riley declared at media day the team is not actively working toward Bosh's return after his latest health scare.
That leaves the Heat pointing toward the summer of 2017. By holding the line in free agency, Miami could clear upwards of $35 million in cap space next offseason if Bosh's salary is excluded for medical reasons. And if the Heat trade veterans Goran Dragic and Josh McRoberts, they could potentially make room to offer maximum contracts to a pair of players to join a young core of Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow.
Still, Miami is looking at a rare rebuilding season with little certainty about the franchise's direction going forward.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 6)
The Pacers continue to shuffle the deck around Paul George but nothing they do changes their ranking very much. They've been in the middle of the pack for several years and stay there despite adding a new veteran starting point guard, Jeff Teague, and power forward, Thaddeus Young.
Indiana will be more entertaining to watch, that's for sure. But they actually dropped several spots in our players ranking.
And the management score has suffered because of the decisions to fire coach Frank Vogel, trade George Hill and rebuild with a shaky supporting cast. Great front offices find a way to put the right coach and role players around their superstar. Indiana is still struggling to figure that out.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 14)
What a difference landing the No. 1 pick in the draft can make, as the Sixers jump up to their highest spot ever in our rankings.
The move is predicated almost entirely on an improved roster score -- Philly jumped five spots from No. 28 to No. 23 in our most heavily weighted category. That improved score reflects our bullishness on two young prospects -- Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. If they reach their potential (and stay healthy), both have the chance to be stars.
The rest of the roster is shaky right now, but the team continues to be positioned well in the draft and has plenty of cap space for the future.
That means their ranking might be a little higher the results will justify. On the other hand, the Sixers have the kind of upside most teams long for. -- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 19)
In his third year in Detroit, Stan Van Gundy has built a roster to his liking -- and that better be the case, since the Pistons are one of four teams with more than $100 million committed each of the next two seasons.
Assuming Detroit extends or re-signs shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (a near certainty), the Pistons will be capped out the next two summers and probably will pay the luxury tax (something owner Tom Gores told the Detroit Free Press he's willing to do for a winner).
That lack of flexibility hurts the Pistons in the rankings, as do low scores for market (now largely irrelevant) and draft picks. The roster category is probably a better measure of where Detroit is headed in the short term. The Pistons rank ninth, and they could easily break into the league's top 10 teams this season with a young core.
-- Kevin Pelton
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
The Magic made a major leap in our rankings to No. 13 last edition, but after a puzzling summer they've lost three spots.
Orlando's decision to package Victor Oladipo and the draft rights to Domantas Sabonis for Serge Ibaka is defensible, but given where the Magic are in their developmental curve and where Ibaka is in his career, it appears to be a move sacrificing the future.
Their other summer additions -- Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin, Jeff Green -- cost a combined $112 million dollars, and all three are less talented than their younger counterparts already on the team.
So while we remain optimistic about new coach Frank Vogel's fit, we are increasingly losing confidence in GM Rob Hennigan's ability to craft a contender or show the necessary patience to rebuild. He's somewhere in between, and that rarely works.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 13)
The Nuggets continue to slowly climb the rankings, jumping four spots in our last edition and another three here. The steady addition of well-chosen draft picks is the primary reason.
This summer they drafted Kentucky's Jamal Murray, a player both Kevin and I had ranked as a potential top-four pick. Add Murray to Nikola Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris, and the Nuggets are loaded with young talent while still retaining significant flexibility in the draft and free agency.
If their young players really take off, then we probably have them too low.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 20)
With a pair of key talents (Anderson and Gordon) departing for Houston, the Pelicans bet on youth and defense in free agency, signing role players Langston Galloway, Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore to provide more two-way talent on the perimeter.
Those additions mean New Orleans is counting on Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday to supply scoring and shot creation. With Holiday planning to miss the start of the season to tend to his pregnant wife (former USWNT star Lauren Holiday) after she undergoes surgery to remove a benign brain tumor, that could be problematic -- particularly with fellow guard Tyreke Evans out indefinitely because of knee surgery.
Longer term, the Pelicans must re-sign Holiday, an unrestricted free agent next summer. New Orleans still does have some cap flexibility going forward but would have a hard time replacing Holiday with an equivalent talent at point guard.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 18)
Having spent the previous two summers planning for a run at Durant in free agency, the Wizards suffered the indignity of not even getting a meeting with the homegrown superstar. Washington did come close with Al Horford, but after he chose Boston, the Wizards settled for spending their max-level cap space on a combination of center Ian Mahinmi and forwards Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith. Suffice it so say Washington was dreaming bigger than recreating the Orlando Magic's backup frontcourt.
The Wizards were 18-13 after adding Markieff Morris at the trade deadline, reflecting their potential to contend for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference -- if they can stay healthy, which is always an issue with shooting guard Bradley Beal. But Washington will be capped out the next two summers if Otto Porter re-signs or is extended, making it tough for the Wizards to add to the roster.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 12)
The Bulls tumbled 12 spots last time (from No. 4 to No. 16), and the fall continues in this edition.
At the heart of the problem is the decline and/or departure of several key players.
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are gone. Only Jimmy Butler remains from a team that once looked as if it could challenge for the Eastern Conference crown. The new additions -- led by Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez -- are solid, but they aren't expected to move the needle much.
The management score continues to plummet as well, down to No. 17 in this edition based in part on the curious decision to pass on rebuilding (turning down offers that could have landed them Kris Dunn, among others, in the draft) and instead patch together a veteran team that looks unlikely to make the playoffs.
-- Chad Ford
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
The Hornets survived a tricky offseason better than we feared, bringing back Nicolas Batum on a five-year deal that pays him less than the maximum salary and also re-signing starter forward Marvin Williams. However, Charlotte suffered heavy losses in the backcourt as starting shooting guard Courtney Lee (New York) and backup point guard Jeremy Lin (Brooklyn) headed to the Big Apple.
Bringing back Batum and Williams, and adding reserve guards Marco Belinelli and Ramon Sessions also means the Hornets now figure to be capped out the next two summers if they extend or re-sign starting center Cody Zeller. So if Charlotte's going to improve -- or perhaps even keep pace with the progress of other Eastern Conference contenders -- it will have to come through internal development from the likes of Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Frank Kaminsky.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 23)
The Bucks have been on a turbulent ride in these rankings. They jumped up 13 spots in our 2015 edition but then dropped 12 spots in March during a disappointing season. They move up three spots this time, though the future for them continues to look cloudy.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are still the building blocks of the roster. Both have enormous potential and we project that they'll continue to improve, leading to a jump from No. 23 to No. 14 in the players category.
However, we are less confident in almost everything else, from management and coaching to their financial flexibility.
If Antetokounmpo and Parker become superstars, we might have them too low, but there doesn't seem to be a lot else to be optimistic about in Milwaukee at the moment.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 25)
After losing All-Star center Al Horford to the Boston Celtics in free agency, the Hawks take the biggest tumble of any team from the last edition of the Future Power Rankings.
Atlanta also traded starting point guard Jeff Teague in a deal that netted a first-round pick used on Baylor forward Taurean Prince, meaning Dennis Schroder now has the keys to Mike Budenholzer's offense. Meanwhile, the Hawks are counting on Dwight Howard to anchor a revamped defense.
Even if Atlanta can beat another low forecast using ESPN's real plus-minus, there's bigger trouble ahead: Star forward Paul Millsap can be an unrestricted free agent next summer and will eligible for a deal starting at an estimated $33.4 million at age 32. Will the Hawks hold the line on a fifth year as they did with Horford? If so, Atlanta might look dramatically different -- and worse -- this time next year.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 15)
The Suns are still early in the process of rebuilding their talent base, but this summer provided encouraging signs Phoenix is finally committed to that process.
After taking Dragan Bender No. 4 overall in the draft, the Suns added another top prospect when they traded up to take Marquese Chriss with the No. 8 pick. Though the two lottery picks are both naturally power forwards, they should eventually be able to play together. Phoenix also got good value in the second round with point guard Tyler Ulis.
A restrained free agency saw the Suns nab Jared Dudley as a veteran mentor who can keep the power forward position warm for Bender and Chriss as well as bringing back Leandro Barbosa. Next up for Phoenix is figuring out whether Brandon Knight can complement Eric Bledsoe and promising second-year guard Devin Booker or whether Knight is expendable in a trade.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 27)
Our optimism about the Lakers' potential to return to the playoffs any time soon has faded in the wake of a disappointing offseason. Unable to get a meeting with Durant or sign Hassan Whiteside, the Lakers set their sights lower, lavishing big four-year deals on Luol Deng ($72 million) and Timofey Mozgov ($64 million) that will prevent them from easily clearing max-level cap space either of the next two summers.
Despite adding the veterans, the Lakers still don't look likely to take a major step forward this season. RPM pegs them for an expected 24.3 wins, the league's lowest projection. The silver lining of such a result would be the Lakers potentially keeping their first-round pick (which goes to Philadelphia if it falls outside the top three) another year, but that would mean the 76ers getting the Lakers' pick in 2018 no matter what.
-- Kevin Pelton
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 25-30
Dallas last failed to go at least .500 in 1999-00, Dirk Nowitzki's second season. Mark Cuban purchased the team in January 2000 and the ensuing partnership has yielded more trips to the Finals (two) than to the lottery (one).
With the Mavericks spending lavishly on free agent Harrison Barnes, this year's roster looks like the toughest test yet for Rick Carlisle to mold a playoff team. And with Nowitzki nearing the finish line at age 38 and little young talent on the roster, Dallas might have no choice but to embrace a long-overdue rebuild at some point.
The good news is that after sending their pick to Boston this year to complete the ill-fated Rajon Rondo trade, the Mavericks now have all of their own first-rounders going forward. So if they indeed do miss the playoffs, they'll be able to start the rebuilding process with a rare lottery pick.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 22)
On paper, it was a big summer for the Knicks, who brought in Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee in an effort to make a run for the playoffs. If Rose and Noah are healthy and return to form, they might have a shot at that goal.
But their moves this summer were a short-term play, not a long-term one, putting into question the development of their most valuable piece, Kristaps Porzingis -- whose best position is probably center, where Noah plays.
Their moves highlight our concerns about management, from ownership on down. The only front office with a worse ranking is that of the Kings.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 28)
The Grizzlies' quick descent from No. 10 in 2013 to No. 28 now might seem extreme. The team is still a playoff contender and just re-signed its best player, Mike Conley, to a long-term deal while adding a solid free agent in Chandler Parsons.
But looking into the future, the Grizzlies look below average in every category. While a core of Conley, Parsons and Marc Gasol (if healthy) provides a solid foundation, the rest of the roster is unusually weak.
Poor draft positioning (their first-round pick probably goes to Denver next summer), limited cap flexibility and a market that's not a free-agent magnet increase the fear that the Grizzlies might get stuck in the dreaded limbo of being bad enough to miss the playoffs but not bad enough to land a top pick.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 26)
Hello, Brooklyn. After three straight editions where the Nets finished dead last, they've moved out of the basement.
They still rank No. 30 in the roster category and are bottom five for the draft. However, there are rays of hope.
Watching new GM Sean Marks put together a Spurs-esque front office has upped the management score, and the Nets' frugality this summer puts them in a position to lead the market in cap space the next three years.
Given the desirability of the market and the new front office approach, they might start actually luring players soon.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 30)
Much like star DeMarcus Cousins, we don't totally understand the Kings' summer. That's not to say it was terrible. Sacramento wisely moved on from Rajon Rondo, nabbed a first-round pick for disappointment Marco Belinelli and got good value signing local product Matt Barnes.
Nonetheless, the bigger picture is hard to see. Despite playing their best basketball with smaller lineups, the Kings doubled down on big men, drafting two of them (Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere) in the first round. And Sacramento is counting on a revitalized Ty Lawson and natural shooting guard Garrett Temple running point during an eight-game suspension for starter Darren Collison.
The Kings are more likely to make the playoffs than be the league's worst team this season, but the clock is ticking toward Cousins' free agency in the summer of 2018. If he leaves, Sacramento might find itself back at square one.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 29)