Which free-agent deals were the biggest steals this offseason? We identify eight that leap out as exceptional values.
To rate each deal, we've compared the free agent's new annual salary with his estimated real value -- a metric based on predicted real plus-minus wins (itself a function of RPM and minutes played) and the estimated dollar value of each win (about $2.58 million per win next season).
Surprisingly, about 80 percent of the new contracts rate as bad deals in our analysis, with the team paying more for the free agent over the life of the contract than the real value he's expected to provide. But the following eight players stood out among those projected to generate major surplus value for their new teams.
Note: We covered the worst deals of the offseason here.
Warriors own the offseason
Having just set the all-time NBA record for regular-season wins, the Golden State Warriors would have been forgiven if they had merely brought back the core of last year's team for another run at the title.
Instead, the Warriors somehow managed to get dramatically better. And they didn't just add three valuable new pieces to the roster -- they also signed each new player to a deal worth less than his projected real value.
Kevin Durant (Surplus value: $13.8 million)
While the Mavericks dove headfirst into free agency by "stealing" Harrison Barnes away from Golden State on a new max deal (a move we panned), the Warriors were calmly executing their own bold offseason plan by enticing Kevin Durant to join the fold.
Not only is Durant an MVP-caliber talent and a four-time NBA scoring champion, but at age 27 he's still in his prime. And KD notably earned his scoring crowns primarily through elite offensive efficiency, not volume shooting. He's one of only eight players in league history to post a career true shooting percentage better than 60 percent on more than 10,000 shot attempts. (Six of those other seven guys are already in the Hall of Fame, and the seventh -- Steve Nash -- will be soon.)
Durant's passing game, which admittedly was nothing special early in his career, has steadily improved each season. In fact, he ranked sixth among all non-guards in assists per 36 minutes last year. And while Durant may not literally be the best player on the planet -- LeBron James still holds that title -- KD is firmly entrenched in the pantheon of league greats.
During a summer that saw several mediocre players receive maximum contracts, the Warriors were able to bestow their max money on a player whose projected value to the team ($40 million) next season greatly exceeds his nominal salary ($26.5 million). Free agency doesn't get much better than that.
Zaza Pachulia (Surplus value: $8.3 million)
Even with next year's increased salary cap, Golden State's two primary centers in 2015, Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, both became virtually impossible for the team to retain given Durant's contract. The Warriors were briefly left without a starting-caliber center. Oh, and they had minimal cap room with which to recruit a viable replacement in the middle.
Yet somehow the Warriors solved the dilemma with panache. They landed Pachulia, a vastly underrated center, on a ridiculously cheap deal for $2.9 million. And while we kind of expected Pachulia to be underpaid yet again this year, we thought he'd find a better contract when GMs were throwing money around.
If nothing else, you might have expected other contenders to offer Pachulia more money just to keep him off the Warriors. But instead of being stuck with a minimum-contract stiff at starting center next season -- a fate Golden State was prepared to endure as the cost of signing Durant -- the team has gained a legitimate starting big man with a solid RPM of 1.55 last season.
Pachulia should also fit in beautifully with the rest of the roster. The low-usage banger isn't going to take shots away from the highly efficient trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Durant, but will instead make life in their half-court sets easier by setting sturdy screens. Pachulia also brings hustle, solid defense, good rebounding numbers and even a respectable steal rate.
Yes, the Warriors lost one of the NBA's best defensive bigs in Bogut, but they found a quality replacement. Considering his implausibly low salary, Pachulia would have been an insane bargain at even twice the price.
David West (Surplus value: $7.1 million)
In the summer of 2015, David West left $10.5 million on the table to join the San Antonio Spurs in the hopes of claiming a championship ring. It didn't work out.
This summer, West opted for a similar strategy, signing an extremely small deal with Golden State (less than $1 million) for another title shot.
West put up some lackluster box score stats on a per-game basis last season. He scored significantly fewer than 10 points per game, grabbed just four rebounds, and averaged fewer than two assists, one steal and one block.
But as is the case so often with players on the Spurs given limited minutes, the per-minute numbers are more telling. West's per-36 minute and efficiency stats paint a more upbeat picture. His points per 36 minutes were only down 0.4 points from his Indiana days, and his field goal percentage, steal rate and block rate were all at career highs. He also recorded the second-best assist rate of his career to go along with his second-lowest turnover rate.
Even more impressive: According to RPM, West was the 11th-best power forward in the league last season on a per-possession basis. At age 35, his impact is likely to diminish next season, but at such a small price he's still among the best impact-per-dollar signings of the summer.
More free-agency steals
Jared Dudley (Surplus value: $15.3 million)
In a nifty deal that flew under the radar, the Phoenix Suns signed the fourth-best small forward available in free agency, according to RPM. Having cracked 10 PPG only three times during his nine-year career, Dudley isn't exactly a household name among casual fans. But devotees of advanced statistics have been high on him for years now -- and RPM loves him.
It helps that almost half of Dudley's shot attempts have come from distance, and he converts at a high rate; he shot a whopping 42 percent from 3-point range last season. Dudley also turned the ball over just 1.4 times per 36 minutes last season, becoming one of only eight players since 2000 to log more than 15,000 career minutes with fewer than 650 total turnovers.
While Dudley's other box score metrics tend to be fairly pedestrian, he's known throughout the league as a consummate glue guy -- the kind of player who does all the little things to help the team win, even though most of them never show up in the box score. As a result, he's posted a positive on-court/off-court net rating year after year.
Simply put: Good things happen for his team when he's on the court.
In part, it's because Dudley is aware of his limitations. He knows he can't fly with the majority of the NBA, so he'll go for good positional defense instead of attempting a risky block. All that, plus Dudley's very efficient shooting and low turnover rate, adds up to RPM's ninth-best small forward in the league.
Matthew Dellavedova (Surplus value: $18.7 million)
The 2016 playoffs propelled Kyrie Irving to superstardom. And while it's obvious that Irving's ability to create shots under difficult situations was crucial to the Cavs' success in the Finals, we feel the need to point out that in most other situations -- including the bulk of the regular season -- Cleveland actually played better with Matthew Dellavedova on the floor.
The Cavs were a net plus-8.2 last season with Delly running the point. They were a net minus-0.2 with Irving.
Dellavedova is kind of like a younger version of Dudley (if the latter were a point guard). For example, almost half of his shots last year were 3s and he made a superb 41 percent of them. His turnovers were also super-low, at least for a point guard, allowing him to post a stellar 3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. And most of his other stats were underwhelming.
But Dellavedova also brings a lot to the table that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. In contrast to Irving -- whose effort on defense can be mediocre at best -- Dellavedova often wears down opposing point guards by hounding them over the length of the entire court. Delly's strong defensive RPM rating reflects his defensive impact.
It's also worth noting that some of Dellavedova's box score stats are mediocre primarily because he doesn't focus on individual numbers. For example, when it comes to rebounding, Dellavedova just boxes out his man rather than trying to grab the board himself. This gives him a positive adjusted impact on team rebounding, though it leads to poor individual numbers. (Nene has a similar rebounding profile at the center position.)
Because the Cavaliers have no clear competitors in the East, they will probably still grab the No. 1 seed even with Dellavedova gone. But at cheaper than $10 million per season, we believe that matching the Bucks' offer to Delly should have been a no-brainer for the Cavs' front office, and we're fairly certain his absence will be felt in 2016.
Wesley Johnson (Surplus value: $4.2 million)
Clippers forward Wesley Johnson is even less well-known than Dudley. Drafted No. 4 in the 2010 draft, Johnson was slow to develop and eventually picked up the "bust" label; he has never scored more than 10 PPG in his career.
We have to agree that Johnson has been a disappointment on the offensive end. He sports below-average shooting percentages even though he isn't asked to shoot much, and his paltry 65 percent free throw clip is an indication that sharpshooting might not be his thing. Johnson also had one of the lower assist rates among NBA wings last season.
But basketball is a two-way sport, and defense is where Johnson shines. His 1.2 blocks and 1.9 steals per 36 minutes helped make him one of the most versatile wing defenders in the league last season.
No, the Clippers didn't defend that much better with Johnson on the court, but that's probably a function of him sharing more court time with the likes of Jamal Crawford and less with Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. In fact, our RPM model rated his defensive impact at a stellar plus-2.0 last season.
Johnson will never be an offensive force, but his standout defense allowed him to post a total RPM of plus-0.9 last season.
On his new deal, valued at roughly $6 million per season, that makes him a steal.
Jared Sullinger (Surplus value: $8.0 million)
Even though they picked up a key big man in Al Horford, it's worth noting that the Celtics also lost a valuable contributor in Sullinger, who has been somewhat overlooked this offseason. Sullinger signed with the Toronto Raptors, another viable contender with Boston for the No. 2 seed in the East.
Sullinger was presumably brought in to replace outgoing Raptors center Bismack Biyombo. One thing is certain: Sullinger will bring neither the fearsome rim protection nor the relentless hustle that made Biyombo so valuable during the Raptors' 2016 playoff run. When it comes to rebounding, however, the two are extremely similar, grabbing just over 12 boards per 36 minutes.
But Sullinger clearly has the edge in terms of offensive impact. Whereas Biyombo last season had one of the lowest assist rates ever recorded in league history, Sullinger logged the 19th-best assist rate among all NBA bigs (forwards and centers).
Sullinger also has the ability to stretch the floor on offense with his credible 3-point range, something Biyombo clearly couldn't do. It's safe to assume Sullinger will be better at drawing rim protectors away from the paint -- opening up driving lanes for both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan -- and will likely raise the shooting efficiency of his Toronto teammates.
Sullinger probably won't give you 30 minutes of play for all 82 games -- he's missed more than a few games here and there in his first four NBA season -- but he can be a really valuable contributor for around 20 MPG. With a stellar projected RPM of plus-2.8, he will be worth far more than his new $5.6 million annual salary, even in limited playing time.
Nene (Surplus value: $6.2 million)
The Houston Rockets also lost a good rim-protecting center: Dwight Howard left to sign with the Hawks for around $23 million per season. The Rockets chose to go instead with Nene at about an eighth of Howard's asking price.
Because RPM rated Howard as exactly league-average (0.0) in his on-court impact last season, we don't think Rockets fans have reason to worry much about his departure, especially with Nene bringing his sneakily strong plus-2.4 RPM rating to the table.
In essence, the Rockets have just replaced last season's lane-clogging center with one who has better range and is a far superior passer.
While James Harden may excel at creating his own shot, Nene's lofty 3.2 assists per 36 minutes should make life easier for some of his less offensively gifted Rockets teammates.
And while Howard certainly brought the blocks on defense, he also led the league in goaltending, which tends to indicate a certain amount of stat stuffing. Nene is the opposite sort of player.
He has led the league multiple times in adjusted rebounding -- a stat one of us (Engelmann) created to evaluate each player's impact on his team's defensive rebounding. But Nene has done so despite never leading the league in defensive rebounds. That's because Nene makes sure his opposing big man is boxed out and often lets his teammates grab the board.
The Brazilian center was also second in the league last season in steal rate among big men with more than 1,000 minutes played.
Nene's career earnings exceed $122 million, but next season with the Rockets he will earn just a hair below $3 million. Even if he doesn't play the entire 82-game season, this looks like another sneaky-good move by GM Daryl Morey.