Australian big man Thon Maker threw the NBA world a curve on Sunday as he announced that he'll attempt to enter the 2016 NBA draft.
Assuming he is eligible, Maker's draft stock is still very much a matter of debate.
I reached out to several NBA folks on Sunday night, and the general consensus was that it's too early to tell what kind of NBA player Maker would be.
Almost a year ago, Maker arrived at the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit with a lot of hype, but he was somewhat disappointing. He seemed overwhelmed and his impact and effort faded a bit, relative to expectations.
He has intriguing physical tools (he's 7-foot-1 with a 9-foot-3 standing reach), with solid agility and athleticism for his size. He generally plays really hard and he has a good, albeit streaky jump shot.
But as he showed last April, his skill set was raw, his body needed development and his feel for the game seemed a year or two behind that of teammates Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Skal Labissiere. Even Cheick Diallo, who is raw in his own right, looked like he had a better grasp of the game.
The general consensus after the Hoop Summit was that Maker was Fran Frascilla's proverbial two years away from being two years away from being a productive NBA player.
Things have gotten better for Maker's stock since then. After his poor showing at the Hoop Summit, Maker decided to postpone college and returned to the Athlete Institute in Ontario (Canada). And he was named MVP of the Basketball Without Borders event in the Dominican Republic over the summer.
The last time most NBA teams saw him was at the Basketball Without Borders event in Toronto during All-Star Weekend. The reviews were better, but still pretty mixed. Matched up against DeAndre Ayton, a top prospect for the 2018 draft, Maker played harder, with more physicality, and drew qualified praise from scouts.
While our ESPN recruiting experts don't rank prep school or international players, I reached out to recruiting guru Paul Biancardi, who says Maker would be
But as to where he would land in this year's draft? That is still a major question mark. Of the scouts I surveyed, one had him in the late lottery, several others in the mid 20s and one in the second round. That's a massive range.
Maker will now have several obstacles to overcome.
First, he'll have to get the NBA to agree with him that he's eligible for this year's draft. He has an intriguing case. If he qualifies as an international player, it's pretty easy. As a 19-year-old international player, he would be eligible.
However, because Maker played two years of high school basketball in the United States, the NBA may rule that he's not an international player. If the league rules that way, then he has to prove his eligibility as an American player, which is a bit more complicated.
"NBA rules state that a player must be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school," ESPN.com's Jeff Borzello wrote. "Maker turned 19 in February but still attends Orangeville Prep (Canada). Maker's case for eligibility would come down to convincing the NBA that he was a member of the 2015 class and decided to do a post-graduate year."
It's a gray area for the NBA and the folks I spoke with didn't have a real feel on what the league would ultimately decide.
If Maker is ruled eligible, his draft stock is going to hinge on what teams learn at the NBA draft combine, to which he's likely to be invited, and predraft workouts.
NBA teams might have to do a lot of homework in a short period of time. Up until a few weeks ago, Maker was making visits to college programs. The expectation was that he'd stay in school at least one year.
Ideally, he will hire a well-connected agent that can get him six weeks of strength and advanced basketball training. The more he knows about the workouts, the better he'll look in them.
If Maker comes into workouts, makes shots, plays with toughness and pick things up quickly, he'll likely rise on the draft board. If teams see enough upside, he might land in the lottery.
However, it's also possible that he's physically and emotionally overwhelmed when matched up against the elite talent he'll be competing with in workouts. Most or all of them will have the kind of college experience that could make them readier and more polished.
So Maker could easily slide into the second round -- or even go undrafted -- if he struggles.
For now, we've put him at No. 20 on our top 100. We'll be watching close over the next couple of months to see his progress.