NBA draft: Buddy Hield have star potential?

For the past several years, ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton have provided the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA, where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Chad Ford: Only one player ranked in the top 20 of my Top 100 reached the Final Four -- Oklahoma's Buddy Hield. Hield's play through the first two weekends of the NCAA Tournament mirrored what he did all year. He was the most dynamic, exciting scorer in college basketball.

At times, his confidence shooting the basketball was reminiscent of Stephen Curry's.

But does the fan excitement about Hield translate to the NBA? Before the season, Hield ranked as a likely second-round pick. He moved steadily up the Big Board all year from No. 29 in early January to No. 14 in early February to No. 9 in late February to No. 5 in our current Top 100.

That's a pretty meteoric rise over the course of three months. Few seniors have ever made such a leap so quickly. That's usually reserved for under-the-radar freshmen or sophomores. Kevin, where does he rank on your statistical board at this point?

Kevin Pelton: Hield's statistics-only projection is for 1.4 WARP, which would be typical of a player drafted 19th or 20th. (He currently ranks lower because he's behind a handful of players who surely won't end up in this year's draft.)

That's a big jump from where Hield was after his junior season, when his 0.7 WARP projection was typical of a player drafted early in the second round, but my model is designed to make it difficult for players to dramatically improve their projections because the track record of such late bloomers is mixed, at best.

I think that's probably the hardest thing for fans who watched Hield dominate the NCAA tournament to believe. He clearly outplayed guys like Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons, so why shouldn't Hield be in the mix for the No. 1 pick?

Chad, how would scouts answer that question?

Accounting for Hield's age

Ford: Scouts are skeptical about upperclassmen. They recognize that a player dominating college basketball at the age of 22 is very different than doing so at 18 or 19.

The differences between a college freshman and a 22-year-old are huge in physical maturity, mental maturity, basketball IQ, knowledge of a coach's systems and familiarity with teammates and role. Seniors have had the benefit of three to four years of college.

Anyone who has gone to college knows that most people make huge strides in maturity during those years. You enter as a kid; you leave as a man.

So for fans who wonder why Jamal Murray is ahead of Hield on our board, just compare their freshman seasons. Three years ago, Hield averaged 7.8 points per game and shot 24 percent from 3-point range and 39 percent from the field in 25 minutes per game. Murray's numbers: 20 ppg, 41 percent from 3, 45 percent from the field, 35 mpg.

That's a big advantage to Murray in both raw stats and the per-minute stats.

Some people misunderstand the age issue. They think NBA teams are worried about a player's career length. Or they think that a "known" quantity (which is how we think of seniors) is better than an unknown one (a freshman). So why take a risk on an unproven player when you can have a proven one?

Of course, that's not how NBA teams look at it, and that's not what the stats indicate.

Kevin, perhaps you can explain the skepticism about seniors.

Pelton: There are two factors at play here.

One is the general fact you just outlined -- given equal performance, a younger player is likely to improve more down the road because of the additional development time. All other things equal, being one year younger than an identical prospect is worth about 0.5 wins above replacement player per season in the NBA.

If anything, this message has probably gotten through too well on the statistical side. Now there's a widespread perception that statistical models hate seniors. That's certainly not always true, if the senior plays well enough. Draymond Green and Jae Crowder rated in the top five of my 2012 projections. And this year, seniors Gary Payton II and Fred VanVleet rate in the top 10 in projected WARP, ahead of Hield.

The factor that's more specific to Hield is that my projections take into account performance in the previous three seasons and actually weight performance early in a player's career more heavily than recent performance. Even as recently as last season, Hield wasn't the dominant star we see now.

Given everything we've mentioned, why do you think Hield has been able to break into the top five of your Big Board?

The case for Hield as a top-five pick

Ford: Three things really stand out to me.

One, after Simmons and Ingram (and possibly Dragan Bender and Murray), there aren't a lot of players in this draft that really get scouts excited.

I think they see the rest of this draft as players who might be starters or solid rotation players. So the feeling is that when you take Hield, it's not like you are passing up on the next Paul George or Giannis Antetokounmpo to pick him.

Second is the shooting. There aren't really any elite 2-guards in this draft. Murray is one, though most scouts project him as a point guard. Furkan Korkmaz is interesting. And that's about it.

With shooting coming at such a high premium right now, Hield's limitless range and fearlessness as a shooter is appealing. Scouts believe he'll hit shots in the NBA.

Third, there's Hield's work ethic. I think scouts know just how much time and effort Hield has put into his game. He's a gym rat who never stops trying to improve. That matters in the NBA. He's not the type of young man that will feel entitled when he comes to the NBA. He's hungry. He wants to be great. Scouts feel he'll keep ironing out his weaknesses at the next level. They all love players like that.

Kevin, do you think they should let those factors sway their decision? Do the stats back up the idea that this isn't a draft filled with superstars? Or that Hield will be a good shooter in the NBA? Or that he's really improving his game?

Pelton: Let's take those in reverse order, starting with Hield's development.

In fact, the improvement in Hield's projected NBA win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) is one of the largest for any four-year player in my database. Only 2011 second-round pick Charles Jenkins improved his win percentage more from start to finish.

That's certainly testament to the work Hield has put in. At the same time, there isn't much indication here that past improvement translates into future development. Aside from Damian Lillard, this list is filled with reserves, at best -- and at worst, players who washed out of the league before ever making much of a contribution.

This squares with what I mentioned before: It actually tends to be somewhat more important for players to start their college careers in productive fashion than to finish them that way.

Lillard also pops up on another list that Hield will soon join: the best shooters drafted in the lottery in recent years. Again, the track record of this group is mixed.

These players are ranked by my "shooting rating," which combines 3-point percentage and 3-point frequency and adds free throw percentage -- all projected based on college performance.

As you can see, Hield will have the best shooting rating of any player drafted this high; he's third overall, behind specialists John Jenkins and Troy Daniels.

Oddly, players in this class have tended to follow two paths. Those whose shooting has translated, like Lillard and both Splash Brothers (Curry and Klay Thompson), have become NBA stars. But then there are players like Xavier Henry, Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas who have been less accurate at the NBA level and disappointments where they were drafted. Shooting doesn't seem to carry over from college as reliably as, say, rebounding ability.

So there's some risk in taking Hield in the lottery, but I think the strongest point in his favor is the first one you mentioned: this draft class. Last year, we discussed how the strongest prospects are those who rank in the top 10 both on your Big Board and in my WARP projections. Well, there are only two such players in the college ranks right now: Simmons and Ingram. (Utah center Jakob Poeltl will probably also qualify when the final draft board is set.)

Given such lack of agreement, Hield ranks seventh in my consensus projections that factor in where players rank on the Big Board. He's not far behind Poeltl, Kris Dunn and Henry Ellenson.

So taking Hield in the top five might not be crazy. But it sounded a lot better before Villanova smashed Oklahoma in Saturday's semifinal and shut down Hield, who finished with nine points on 4-of-12 shooting (1-of-8 from 3-point range).

How much does the ignominious end to his illustrious career affect Hield's draft stock?

Impact of NCAA Tournament

Ford: He has had some torrid shooting games -- even by his standards -- including 36 points and six 3s against VCU, another game with 27 points and then his amazing 37-point game against Oregon, in which he went 8-for-13 from 3-point range and 13-for-20 from the field overall.

It was the Oregon game, in particular, that really got the "Is Buddy a top-five pick?" topic trending. He looked like Curry in that game. But Saturday's outing was a very different story for Hield. Villanova dominated the game -- and Hield -- all night.

After he hit a 3 to start the game, he was 0-for-7 on 3-pointers the rest of the night and ended with just nine points on 4-for-12 shooting.

I wonder if that poor performance will take some of the wind out of his sails in terms of how the NBA sees him. While the game was atypical for Hield, seeing him stopped cold on a big stage might affect the way some teams see him.

"I love Buddy. But I've loved him as sort of a late lottery pick," said one NBA general manager (who was watching from home). "If you draft him as a specialist, I think he's great value.

"He might turn into more than that given his work ethic. But if you draft him to be Steph Curry, I think you're going to be disappointed. I think the tournament may be overinflating his worth a bit."

"I hope today's game puts things in perspective," the GM continued. "When he's faced with the strength and athleticism and length of the defenders in this league, I think there are going to be some big adjustments for him."

Asked for Hield's ceiling, the same GM told me Ben Gordon. Asked for his floor? Jimmer Fredette.

As you would point out, Kevin, Hield's more successful tourney games are just data points in a four-year career, and the same can be said for Saturday's game. How NBA teams factor this new data as we approach the draft will be one of the most compelling stories to watch this spring.