The four weeks since the NBA's All-Star break, spanning February and March, have been the month of the triple-double.
In Milwaukee, third-year forward/guard/multipositional terror Giannis Antetokounmpo has emerged as the Greek god of triple-doubles since replacing injured Michael Carter-Williams as the Bucks' point guard. Antetokounmpo, who'd never previously posted one in his NBA career, has four triple-doubles in his past 11 games, the most a Milwaukee player has ever had in a season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
And yet Antetokounmpo is only tied for the most triple-doubles in that span with Oklahoma City Thunder star Russell Westbrook, who also has four, giving him 12 on the season -- putting him on pace for the most since Magic Johnson had 17 and Michael Jordan 15 in 1988-89, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Given the runs Antetokounmpo and Westbrook are enjoying, it's worth asking whether they can duplicate one of the most challenging feats in NBA history: Oscar Robertson averaging a triple-double in 1961-62.
Why triple-doubles are up
Led by Westbrook, NBA players have combined for 54 triple-doubles this season -- already the most in a season since 1989-90, with about another fifth of the schedule left to be played. While it's tempting to attribute this to the versatile stars in the league now, the real driving factor is pace of play.
Naturally, more possessions means more opportunity to rack up the counting stats that make up triple-doubles. And this season's 98.1 possessions per 48 minutes are the most in the NBA since 1992-93. The relationship between pace and triple-doubles is clear from graphing league-wide pace against triple-doubles per 82 team games (the average for any one team) since 1983-84:
I've marked 2015-16 in red on the chart. The rate of 2.22 triple-doubles per game is the fifth-highest of the past 33 seasons, trailing the four years from 1986-87 through 1989-90 when Johnson and Jordan were at their triple-double peaks.
Though the rising pace of play has enabled contemporary players to compete with stars of the late 1980s, it's still far slower than the pace the league played at in Robertson's heyday. It's impossible to calculate the actual pace for 1961-62 because offensive rebounds and turnovers were not tracked back then, but the average team attempted 107.7 shots and 37.1 free throws per game, suggesting there were about 30 percent more possessions per game in 1961-62 than now.
As a result, Antetokounmpo and Westbrook would have to be far more productive on a per-possession basis than Robertson was to match his per-game output. It was easier for Robertson to average a triple-double in his day.
Point Giannis still needs more assists
Since the All-Star break, Antetokounmpo has averaged 20.1 points, 9.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game. His assist average (8.8 APG) has been even better in the eight games since Carter-Williams was lost to a hip injury that required season-ending surgery, thrusting Antetokounmpo into the point guard role full time.
Milwaukee's current starting lineup is ideally designed for Antetokounmpo to rack up rebounds. Center Miles Plumlee, who has replaced Greg Monroe in the middle, is a much weaker defensive rebounder. Jabari Parker is also a poor rebounder for a power forward, and going from Carter-Williams to O.J. Mayo at one guard spot has also reduced Antetokounmpo's competition for rebounds.
With that fivesome on the floor, Antetokounmpo's defensive rebound rate is an incredible 34.0 percent, according to NBAwowy.com. So it's no surprise that he's pulling down 24.0 percent of available defensive rebounds since the All-Star break, per NBA.com/Stats, as compared to 18.5 percent beforehand. Add in the heavy minutes Antetokounmpo has been logging since the All-Star break (38.5 per game) and averaging double-figure rebounds is realistic. Getting there in assists figures to be trickier.
Since Carter-Williams went down, Antetokounmpo has been one of the league's highest-usage ball handlers. According to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, he's holding the ball for 6.8 minutes in a game (the league's ninth-highest total) and averaging 70.6 passes per game (which ranks sixth). Yet Antetokounmpo still isn't quite to double-figure assists.
Given he's unlikely to make more passes, Antetokounmpo is going to have to make them count more by turning a higher percentage of them into assists. During the past eight games, Antetokounmpo has averaged an assist every eight passes, a good rate -- it ranks 10th in that span among the 46 players who have made at least 50 passes per game -- but not on par with players like Westbrook and Chris Paul, who average an assist every 5.4 passes.
Of course, Antetokounmpo is also 21 years old and in his first month of truly playing point guard. Projecting out improvement as a playmaker, he probably has the most realistic chance of averaging a triple-double of any current NBA player.
Westbrook must play with weaker rebounders
Already, Westbrook is coming closer to averaging a triple-double than any player since Magic Johnson. He's got the assists part down, handing out 10.4 per game this season, and his 7.6 rebounds per game are the most by a player averaging double-figures assists since Johnson. If you combine the number of rebounds and assists per game needed to get to double figures in both categories, Westbrook's 2015-16 ranks fourth since the ABA-NBA merger behind three Johnson campaigns.
So how does Westbrook get there? One easy way would be playing more minutes. Westbrook is averaging just 34.7 per game, the lowest average of any player on the above list. At his current rebound rate, Westbrook could average double-figures by playing 45.7 minutes per game. Obviously, that's not realistic, particularly because of Westbrook's history of knee injuries. But an increase to 38 minutes per game might be possible if the Thunder (or another team) needed more from him.
At 38 minutes per game, Westbrook would still need to increase his rebound rate from 11.7 percent of all available rebounds to 13.8 percent to average double-figures, which would make him better than the average power forward (13.4 percent) on the glass.
A better rebounding Westbrook might be possible under the right conditions. First, he couldn't play with Kevin Durant, who is also a strong rebounder from the perimeter. Westbrook's rebound percentage improves from 11.5 percent with Durant to 12.4 percent without him, per NBA.com/Stats. It's even better (12.8 percent) when Durant is sitting and Oklahoma City's starting frontcourt of Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka are on the court, according to NBAwowy.com.
Further improvement could come from the right combination of weak-rebounding wing players and big men, like Robin Lopez, who are content to box out and let Westbrook grab rebounds rather than chasing after them. Still, such a team would have to be tailored almost perfectly to Westbrook's skills to allow him to average double-figure rebounds. And with Westbrook in his prime at age 27, this might be as close as he ever gets.