Note: This column was updated after LSU's decision not to participate in other postseason tournaments.
As Ben Simmons walked off the court Saturday after LSU's embarrassing 71-38 loss at the hands of Texas A&M, a question came to mind for many of us who scout and cover draft prospects.
"Is this guy really the No. 1 pick in the draft, or did he throw away his shot?"
When the teams are announced for the NCAA tournament, LSU isn't expected to be named. If the Tigers are left out, Simmons could become the first player since Michael Olowokandi in 1998 to go No. 1 in the draft after missing the tournament the same year.
Simmons' stat line seemed fine on Saturday: 10 points, 12 rebounds, yet another double-double. But he didn't play like a guy who was playing for his NCAA tournament life.
Uncommon size and skill
Simmons has been heralded by NBA scouts as one of the best prospects to come along in years. His NBA comps have ranged from LeBron James to Magic Johnson.
Few players in basketball history can match his combination of size, athleticism and passing ability. His feel for the game is tremendous. And when he has imposed his will on opposing defenses, he has been awesome.
Simmons' double-double on Saturday was his 23rd of the season. He's the first NCAA freshman in 20 years to average 15 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists.
By most standards, he has had a historic season.
Questionable effort and impact
While Simmons' skills are obvious, it's difficult to get a read on his personality. He can be stoic to a fault, expressionless in the manner of Tim Duncan. Win or lose, good or bad, his smooth game and calm demeanor never really change much.
What is he thinking? Does he care? Why doesn't he play his heart out? Why not leave everything on the floor?
Simmons has heard those questions in recent weeks, and he can expect to hear them again from the select few NBA general managers who get to interview him prior to the June 23 NBA draft.
And this too: How can we take you as our franchise savior when you couldn't lead LSU to a tournament bid?
How can a team with the No. 1 pick, and several other top recruits, end up in the NIT? Was LSU just a pit stop on the way to the NBA?
In the past month, LSU's chemistry has disintegrated, and Simmons has appeared to contribute to the Tigers' demise with lackluster effort. There were already questions earlier in the season about his passive play, and the number of those questions has increased.
For the past three weeks, since Simmons was benched on Feb. 20 for academic underperformance, Simmons has seemed to be on the floor in body, but not in spirit.
His refusal to shoot jumpers, which seemed peculiar enough in November and December, now has scouts concerned; he passes up open looks regularly, instead making difficult passes to teammates. While his passing is terrific, at times he has seemed to choose style over substance. And while he often had foul trouble worries, his defense has been almost nonexistent at times.
There is tremendous pressure for a team with the No. 1 overall pick to get it right. Simmons has been under the microscope already, and by making NBA teams nervous about his effort and impact, he has ensured that the questions won't stop coming.
Making the case for and against Simmons
For months, NBA scouts and GMs have insisted Simmons is the no-brainer No. 1 pick in the draft. In November a longtime GM told me, "Anyone who doesn't have Simmons No. 1 should be fired."
But there have been cracks in the consensus. Multiple teams have started to question whether it's a foregone conclusion.
On Saturday, that same GM backed off. "I stand by those comments in November," he said. "There wasn't anyone even close. But as the season has gone on, I think he hasn't improved and other guys have.
"When guys don't improve, I get a little nervous. I thought he'd get more comfortable with his jumper. He'd start molding this team into a cohesive unit.
"It's gone the opposite direction. I still love him as a prospect, but I've got a lot more question marks."
It hasn't helped that Duke's Brandon Ingram has emerged as a real competitor to Simmons. Ingram can score, and his length and agility allow him to guard multiple positions.
Ingram's very thin and has a streaky jumper. But he plays really hard. He has shown toughness. He defends. And he can shoot.
And he'll probably play several games in the NCAA tournament, where a strong performance could vault him ahead of Simmons on the draft board for some teams.
Redemption for Simmons?
What we're hearing now about Simmons should sound familiar. Two years ago, many made the same observations about Andrew Wiggins during his freshman season at Kansas.
After Wiggins scored just four points on 1-for-6 shooting in an embarrassing loss in the second round of the NCAA tournament, the chorus of doubters got even louder. Teams wondered whether he would play hard enough, work hard enough or be aggressive enough.
From the moment Wiggins got to the Minnesota Timberwolves, it was clear that the NBA game would be a better fit for him. Wiggins has won over most of the skeptics by taking the NBA Rookie of the Year award, and this season he's averaging better than 20 points per game as an NBA sophomore for the up-and-coming Wolves.
While Simmons is a very different type of player, many NBA scouts expect to see a similar evolution in his game. The expectation for many is that with a good coach and an opportunity to handle the ball, he could be spectacular -- a bigger, more athletic Draymond Green.
Said one scout to me last week about all the criticism Simmons is getting: "It's ridiculous. He's one of the most gifted players at his age that I have ever seen.
"Yeah, he's not a shooter. Yeah, he could be more animated. Yeah, he could do this more or this less. But I can say a lot more critical things about every other draft prospect in this draft, too.
"He's 19. He has the chance to be a triple-double machine. He's one of the best passing big men I've ever seen. He has holes in his game. But he's stuck on an immature team. He isn't used the right way. His team isn't very good. I'd get frustrated, too. He's going to be fine."
Will he? He could have helped us answer that question with a strong, dominating performance in the SEC tournament followed by a surprising LSU run in the NCAA tournament.
Instead, he'll probably have to settle for redemption in individual workouts with teams.
The size and skill are there for Simmons to be an NBA superstar. Is the heart? That's the question that will have to be answered.